If you have not heard, the Edmonton Oilers captain and superstar Connor McDavid is eligible to sign a contract extension and has been since July 1st.
Recently, TSN and Oilers beat reporter Ryan Rishaug spoke with McDavid about his pending contract extension and talks with the club and their general manager Stan Bowman. A specific question and answer stuck out to myself and many as a very telling answer by McDavid.
Rishaug asked McDavid "At the end of the season, you said that winning is the No. 1 priority for you, but you said that if you feel you have a good chance to win here year over year that getting an extension done shouldn't be too much of a problem."
It is not the question but McDavid's answer that is creating some anxiety; “My confidence in this team this year has never been higher. That's what I can say about that. Listen, does anyone have a crystal ball and know what two years, three years, four years, five or whatever [will look like]?"
If McDavid needs assurance beyond this season, it will be hard to guarantee that even with some of the savvy moves that Bowman has made this offseason, keeping a team in consistent contention year over year is tall task.
Can the Oilers keep the window open?
The Oilers keeping their contention window open hinges on a variety of factors but there is no denying that there are a number of key roster players that are on the wrong side of 30 and aging quickly.
There has been plenty of questions and hot takes regarding the Oilers goaltenders but there is no denying that the tandem of Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner have been able to be good enough for the team to make back to back Stanley Cup Finals. Pickard specifically -- who has helped keep the team's head above water by filling in for Skinner when necessary -- is 33 years old and will be 34 years old by the season's end.
On the blueline, there are multiple key fixtures who are aging with top line defenseman Mattias Ekholm at 35 years old and on the last year of his contract (puckpedia.com). As well, one of the longest tenured Oilers is Darnell Nurse who is 30 years old, and Brett Kulak is 31 years old. This year, these are fine but in two or three years from now, blueline is at major risk of decline.
Nurse as well is locked up until he is 35 years old and locked up to a deal with an enormous cap hit at $9.25 million per season. Kulak is on the last year of his deal which provides even more potential uncertainty to the future of the club.
In general, the blueline has only three players extended beyond this season; Evan Bouchard, Ty Emberson, and Nurse. As mentioned before, this does not help to strengthen the certainty in the club maintaining their cup window.
Upfront it is not much better, McDavid and Leon Draisaitl although not youthful are only 28 and 29 years old respectively. However, there are two other top six pieces that are aging with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are 33 and 32 years old, respectively.
There are many players who play key roles on the club that are aging and are at risk of hitting serious decline in future years. As well, multiple players who have contracts expiring that could cause some issues for the team.
Youth movement
The team's prospect pool is not very strong, ranking low amongst the rest of the NHL and given the team's position relative to the rest of the league, it does not seem to be changing anytime soon. Yet, the Oilers brass have made changes in recent years to try and change the trajectory of the club's pipeline.
The team has made trades for top prospects in Matt Savoie, Ike Howard, and Roby Jarventie and have made multiple free agent signings to supplement the pool. In recent years the Oilers have added undrafted free agents from juniors and college like; James Stefan, Quinn Hutson, and Damien Carfagna. As well as European free agents like; Josh Samanski, Viljami Marjala, Atro Leppanen, and David Tomasek.
These moves alone have the potential to bear real fruit on the Oilers roster in upcoming seasons and if continued, could help to keep the team and their contention window open. This is one of the ways that teams can add to their lineup without having draft picks.
This season alone could see Savoie contending for the Calder trophy, with Howard joining as a top prospect, he too will have real expectations.
Tomasek was signed as a top free agent and should look to add some serious depth upfront to the team and Leppanen has the potential to be a hidden gem.
It is hard to say one way or another but the Oilers being able to contend will rely on a little bit of luck with their key aging players both aging gracefully and with the clubs ability (or inability) to replace and supplement pieces on the roster.
It remains to be seen how either of those factors will play out but one thing is for sure, if the team loses their captain and star player and McDavid walks, the team's contention window will be almost impossible to keep open.