The Edmonton Oilers made what is possibly the most widely applauded trade this offseason — some even dubbing it a steal. In July, they took advantage of the Tampa Bay Lightning being unable to sign prospect Ike Howard and decided to make a trade with them. I am of course talking about the prospect swap with the Lightning, where the Oilers sent former First Round Pick and memorial cup champion, Sam O’Reilly for Hobey Baker winner, Ike Howard.
Although I am a little more reserved in my opinion, I do think that given the Oilers needs, Howard fits the club better now and going forward. His game allows him to be used alongside two of the league's best centermen in Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.
O'Reilly is a good player in his own right and does possess a projectable game but he would project best suited as a third-line center himself. He was drafted in the First Round in 2024 and is likely not NHL ready yet, needing a few seasons to mature, likely starting in the American Hockey League (AHL).
Howard, on the other hand, was a First Round pick in 2022 and at 21 years old has over three years of NCAA hockey under his belt. He has also impressed at various tournaments for USA on the international stage like the World Juniors and World U-18s.
What can the Oilers expect from Howard?
Howard has been a standout forward for a number of years since being drafted in 2022. Like previously mentioned, he has been able to show his talents for Team USA, winning medals at numerous tournaments. He has also won two NCAA championships and a Hobey Baker award, which is quite the stocked trophy cabinet at his age.
In his last season with the Michigan State University Spartans, he scored 26 goals and 26 assists for 52 points in 37 games. Using Dobberprospects NHLe calculator, that puts him at 37 points in the NHL last year. There are problems with using NHLe, which stands for 'NHL equivalency' and solely takes into account raw production from players who jumped from one league to the NHL. It can offer some form of a baseline to look at, but do be cautious when looking only at production.
Keeping this in mind, Howard shows some clear offensive abilities both as a shooter and playmaker, which makes him well equipped to play alongside either one of McDavid or Draisaitl. Given his progress with the puck on his stick as a scorer, I do think he has a good chance of playing top line minutes with McDavid and Hyman.
However, it can be tough for a player to immediately make the jump from any league to the NHL, especially Juniors and Collegiate level play. Recent players to do this are Toronto Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies, Calgary Flames forward Matt Coronato, and Los Angeles Kings forward Alex Laferriere.
All three of these forwards played their rookie years at 21 or 22 years old, like Howard and all three played under 14 minutes a night and averaged between 0.26-0.44 points-per-game. Using these players as a guide; he might not play the full season on the top line (or even top-six) but I would not be surprised if he makes it there by season's end. Also, over an 82 game season, a 0.26 and 0.44 pace is 21 and 36 points respectively.
Now, not every situation is the same, especially if Howard does play almost his entire rookie campaign beside either one of Draisaitl or McDavid. In saying that, it is important to keep expectations realistic at least until camp rolls around and we get a good idea of how he can perform this year. Even if he doesn't hit the heights that many want, the Oilers still have him locked up under contract for two more seasons after this.