Similar to the Ike Howard trade this off-season, with some fans considering it a steal. Many fans saw last year’s swap with the Buffalo Sabres in a similar light. In 2024, the Oilers dealt away Ryan McLeod along with prospect Tyler Tullio for the Sabres 2022 Ninth overall selection, forward Matthew Savoie.
Although he was reportedly denied exceptional status, Savoie has been a highly touted hockey prospect for years. The Western Hockey League even made exceptions for Savoie years ago, allowing him to play more games than most players at his age.
He has been a prolific scorer at every level he has played, as evidenced by his play with the Oilers AHL-affiliate the Bakersfield Condors this past year in his rookie pro season. Cementing himself as the organization's top prospect.
Savoie was second in U-21 scoring AHL wide, potting 19 goals and 54 points in 66 games with the Condors. His play earned him a late season call-up playing in four games with the Oilers and recording his first point, an assist on a Leon Draisaitl goal.
What can the Oilers expect in Savoie’s rookie year?
The Oilers could be playing with at least three NHL rookies in their top-nine this season, with top European free agent signing David Tomasek, Howard, and Savoie all expected to fight for spots in the lineup. Both Savoie and newly acquired 2025 Hobey Baker winner, Ike Howard are expected to be important pieces moving forward, starting this year.
Although necessary for cap teams, the sheer number of rookies added to the roster brings a level of uncertainty that is frankly, unprecedented for a team as competitive as the Oilers have been. Although not winning a Stanley Cup, the team has been the runner-up the past two seasons and with the goal obviously being to win it all this year, this is a risky move for the club.
In saying that, these three players have been standouts at lower levels for years and are deserving of a chance to show what they have. Savoie especially was a top ten pick only three years ago and has a sky high ceiling. He brings a dynamic style to the ice, with quick hands and feet. He is also a good dual-threat player capable of scoring goals and creating plays. This will serve him well in a possible top-six role with the Oilers.
Looking at other U-21 AHL players that scored at a similar rate to him in recent years; Shane Wright, Jiri Kulich, Zachary Bolduc, and Logan Stankoven. They all had a similar rate of scoring in their rookie year in the NHL. They all ranged from 0.39-0.56 in their first NHL season which is a range of 32-46 points over a full 82 game season (eliteprospects.com)
If Savoie follows a similar pattern, I would expect him to be around the 0.5 points-per-game pace for the year. However, if he can secure a spot with Draisaitl or McDavid, there is no telling how high his ceiling is. He has already shown that adapting to the professional game has not been a concern with his high end production and impressive play with the Condors.
Both players have a history of elevating their linemates with recent examples of Zach Hyman and Kailer Yamamoto having career years on their wings. If Savoie with his high end skillset can benefit, he could really turn heads. Players who score at rates that similar to him usually turn out to be impactful NHL players.
Under the right circumstances, Savoie could easily score at a very high clip, as he has at every level in his young career so far. Given the possibilities of his lineup slot, he could find himself very much in the Calder Trophy conversation for rookie of the year. Especially with what looks to be a relatively down year with only a few strong candidates.