Slightly over a month into the 2025-26 National Hockey League season and the Edmonton Oilers are in a tough spot. Currently sporting a mediocre 9-8-4 record, fighting to cling onto their playoff hopes as the American thanksgiving checkpoint nears.
Over the past 10 games, the club is 4-4-2. There is no shortage of issues plaguing the Oilers; injuries, scoring, goaltending, the list of things going right would be quicker to name.
In what was supposed to be a crucial year in the Oilers Stanley Cup contention window, the team seems to be in a freefall. Just days before the season broke, captain Connor McDavid agreed to sign a contract extension to stay in Edmonton and it seems like he may have made the wrong decision already.
What is going right
Like I said, the list of things going right is easier to name so we are starting there.
Stars
First, their stars are playing like stars. McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard have all been racking up points at a reasonable clip and they make up three of the club's top four scorers with 30, 24, and 16 points respectively through 21 games.
Outside of those three stars there have been notable contributions from forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jack Roslovic as well as defenceman Jake Walman. The depth scoring outside of them has been slowly improving but still not where it needs to be for the Oilers to make a deep run.
Special teams
Aside from individual production, the Oilers special teams have performed quite strongly, having a top 10 powerplay and penalty kill, ranking third in the entire league on the man advantage and ninth on the PK.
Last season, the Oilers finished the season with their powerplay ranked 11th and penalty kill at 16th. This shows that their new assistants have been having a good impact on the team and have been able to turn relatively stagnant special teams units into amongst the league's best.
Defence
Overall, they have been quite strong defensively, according to evolving-hockey.com. At 5-on-5 the club ranks 11th in corsi against per 60 minutes, 9th in fenwick against and 16th in expected goals against.
Given their 28th rank in terms of goals against per 60 and 32nd in save percentage, it signals a legitimate disconnect between their defence and goaltending. The team is doing a good job of suppressing quality and quantity of chances on goal and even still, their goaltenders are not stopping pucks.
What is going wrong
Everything, or so it feels like it.
Mental toughness
In hockey, much is made of physical toughness but a team needs to be able to rise above and not be thrown off their game by an opponent. This requires multiple things such as organizational buy in and of course, mental toughness. The Oilers have shown some major cracks in their armour this year between blown leads and allowing games to get out of hand. It has been an issue and a large reason why they only have four regulation wins, tying for last in the league in this statistic.
Prime examples of this is their game against the Buffalo Sabres; a very winnable game against a team that is dwelling in the basement of the NHL standings. Yet, the Oilers get destroyed 5-1. Another is the Colorado Avalanche, of course they are one of the best teams in the league but even still, beat the Oilers 9-1. A team that has made it to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals should not be losing by that much that often.
Finishing
Despite one of the most high powered offences in the entire league with big names like McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard, the Oilers sit 25th in goals for per 60 at 5-on-5. This issue also plagues the majority of their roster outside of the top-six.
They also rank 28th league wide in shooting percentage, something that can be attributed to bad luck. Making it either a very long string of poor shooting luck or a long stretch of bad habits and given their other holes, it feels likely to be the latter.
Offence creation
Speaking of those bad habits, the Oilers inability to create offence is two-fold, in terms of shot attempts they sit 21st on a per 60 basis at 5-on-5 and 28th by expected goals. This is what makes the Oilers' lack of production feel less like an aberration and more like a direct result of their inability to create offence as a team.
Depth scoring
This is especially true when their elite trio of Bouchard, McDavid, and Draisaitl are on the bench. Oilers forwards have accounted for 50 goals in total this year. Taking away players who have played the majority of their season (30 minutes or more) on a line with McDavid and Draisaitl leaves us with eight forwards -- seven taking away Zach Hyman who has only played two games. Those forwards who have not played 30 or more minutes in the top six have accounted for nine of those 50 goals.
A team that expects to play a long season and make a deep playoff run cannot rely solely on six forwards and will need to be able to run four lines deep. Unfortunately, they have not gotten enough out of their depth scoring this season.
Goaltending
Last but not least, the Oilers goaltending. It has been the topic on everybody's mind going back a long time and it is an aspect of the team that is proving to be a real drag on their performance. Both Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have sub-.890 save percentages, putting them definitely well below league average.
Using goals saved above expected at 5-on-5 and adjusting for goalies who have faced 200 or more unblocked shot attempts (fenwick) the Oilers goalies do not look much better. Pickard sits third last in the league at 42nd and Skinner not much better at 32nd out of 44 goalies who fit the above criteria. It is simply not good enough, especially not good enough to steer away mass speculation and rumours surrounding their goaltending.
Looking ahead for the rest of the Oilers season
It seems hyperbolic to even float the idea that the Oilers may not make the playoffs but that is the current reality. The team is outside the playoff picture, sitting out of even the last wildcard spot in the Western Conference with multiple games in hand on many teams. Looking at their points percentage, it puts them 21st in the entire NHL.
It is clear that right now, the Oilers find themselves in a position that is not ideal, especially for a team who would hope to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals for a third straight season. In order to do that, you have to make the playoffs and looking at the advanced metrics and where the team currently sits in the NHL standings, it is tough to say if they will even make it there or not.
There is a lot of work that needs to be done to turn the season around, especially on the offensive side of the ice. It would not hurt if the Oilers can make a change in their crease either.
All advanced stats via Moneypuck.com and Evolving-hockey.com