Oilers predicted to be Stanley Cup favourites ahead of 2025-26 season

There has been plenty of turnover for the Edmonton Oilers this off-season, seeing many familiar faces leave in free agency or get traded away. In large part due to an impending cap crunch and the normal cap finagling that must be done to keep a contender competitive year-over-year.

Oilers general manager Stan Bowman was facing a tough situation having to navigate with Leon Draisaitl’s extension kicking in this season and with multiple stars like defenceman Evan Bouchard and captain Connor McDavid needing new deals. As well as a few recent acquisitions-- like Jake Walman-- also needing extensions this summer and next.

This has caused a lot of uncertainty while predicting how the 2025-26 season will play out for the Oilers. Some are worried about their prospects heading into the upcoming season. Will they be able to make a deep playoff push into the Stanley Cup Finals once again? Can they improve on that finish and win the elusive Stanley Cup itself?

These are important questions to ask when looking at the moves that management has made and everybody should be asking these questions. That is, everybody except some prominent analytics models that predict the Oilers to be favourites to win their division, fight for the President’s Trophy, and Stanley Cup favourites.

Oilers 2025-26 season predictions based on analytics

As of the start of the season, many prominent pundits are making their predictions ahead of the 2025-26 season. This includes prominent analytics models that have had success at predicting future results in previous seasons.

Moneypuck.com released their predictions for the 2025-26 season based on their model.

They currently have the Oilers as the team most likely to make the playoffs at over 92 percent and gave them the best odds to win the Stanley Cup at 9.3 percent, ahead of any other team.

Next up is Evolving-hockey.com who predicted like Moneypuck, that the Oilers were going to win their division.

However, in their model they do a points projection, which anticipates the Oilers to come in second across the league and projects them to be less than a single point behind first. This is a razor thin margin and means that the Oilers have a good chance at winning the President's Trophy according to their model.

If these models prove to be true, the Oilers will have a much improved 2025-26, leading to assume that the Oilers have improved their team over the summer. So, let's look at how the team did that.

Oilers GM Stan Bowman navigated cap crunch well

The Oilers got rid of a lot of veteran players, injected some talented youth and some players who were maybe a bit undervalued. Make no mistake, this was largely caused by a salary cap crunch that would have forced the Oilers to risk losing key core members.

In saying that, the Oilers traded Viktor Arvidsson and Evander Kane away to the Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks, respectively. The team also let a number of veteran free agents walk like: Forwards Connor Brown, Drake Caggiula, Jeff Skinner, Corey Perry, and defenceman John Klingberg.

Freeing up this cap allowed the team to sign defenceman Bouchard, doing so quickly in the off-season locking the 25 year old up to a four-year deal worth $10.5 million annual average value (AAV). The club was also able to re-sign 2025 trade deadline acquisition, Trent Frederic to a lofty eight-year deal.

Although not new players, Bouchard is expected to bounce back this upcoming season and Frederic is expected to play a key support role for the Oilers, especially as top line winger Zach Hyman is injured and will miss the start of the season.

Bowman also used the excess cap to sign Andrew Mangiapane to a two-year contract, another buy low player he anticipates will bounce back more to his days as a Calgary Flames middle six winger.

Improved depth pushes Oilers forward

In-season acquisitions last year like Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen who were able to play solid support roles for the Oilers down the stretch look like they could play key roles for the club this upcoming year. This expectation was further confirmed with Podkolzin signing a new three-year contract extension.

Bowman was also able to add a number of high end rookies. Oilers No. 1 ranked prospect, Matt Savoie coming up to the NHL tor a full season will play a prominent role in the top nine. The team also acquired 2025 Hobey Baker winner Ike Howard over the summer, in a trade that some called a steal at the time.

In addition, they also added a big fish European free agent, David Tomasek. He looks to take over as the third line centre for the team and will undoubtedly be a key member of the squad. That is not the only player signed from the European market, with depth pieces such as Atro Leppanen, Josh Samanski, and Viljami Marjala, all expected to be call-up options and aim for a roster spot next season.

Bowman has done a lot of work to overhaul the depths of the roster and so far, has evidently done quite a good job.

Injection of youth and smart buys show major improvement for Oilers

Aside from the actual upgrades and changes the team has made, there is also a clear understanding that there are multiple pieces on the roster who should be able to have bounce back years.

In 2024-25, McDavid missed 15 games, playing only 67 matches which is relatively unprecedented for the Oilers captain. So far in his career he has managed to stay quite healthy outside of his rookie season and this is likely a large part of why he saw a dip in his production.

Last season, he amassed his lowest point totals since 2019-20, scoring 26 goals in and 74 assists for 100 points. If he simply scores at the rate he normally does and his health is how it normally is, he will likely see a jump in production.

The aforementioned Bouchard, saw a major rise to prominence in 2023-24, scoring 82 points (18 goals, 64 assists) in 81 games and last season, his production dipped down to 67 in 82 games. It is not guaranteed but it is quite likely that he scores at a higher rate next season, especially with McDavid likely playing more than 67 games.

Going down the roster, this is a common theme. It is one of the main reasons that the Oilers signed Mangiapane, expecting him to bounce back.

Between the injection of 'youthful excitement' as Oilers GM Bowman put it, and the handful of bets, the team is poised to take a step forward this year. We will just have to wait and see if that can translate to a Stanley Cup championship or not.