Connor McDavid’s future with the Edmonton Oilers remains the most pressing storyline in the NHL, and Elliotte Friedman has offered a new twist on which way this saga could possibly go.
Speaking on the latest episode of 32 Thoughts, Friedman suggested McDavid’s next contract may not carry the record-breaking price tag that many expected. Instead, it is likely to actually come in at a lower number.
For most of the summer, speculation centered on McDavid signing for at least $16 million per year, which is a figure that would have set a new standard across the league. Instead, Friedman believes the final number may be slightly more modest.
“In the summer, I think people were saying it was gonna be $16 million; it’s gonna be lower than we thought,” he explained.
He also noted that several front offices around the league are watching closely hoping McDavid settles at a figure that effectively caps future deals.
“I think there are teams hoping McDavid does sign so they can say, hey, if he comes in, say for argument’s sake at $15.5 million, nobody’s getting more than Connor McDavid.”
The Oilers, meanwhile, are in a race against the clock. Training camp is nearly over, and the team is less than two weeks from opening night. If an extension can be finalized before then, it would put an end to months of speculation and allow Edmonton to focus on the ice instead of looming contract questions.
McDavid, who is entering the final stretch of his eight-year $100 million contract signed back in 2017, holds a full no-movement clause. That gives him complete control over his future but also keeps the pressure firmly on the Oilers to get a deal done.
Connor McDavid’s next contract will directly impact team’s flexibility
The cap map surrounding these negotiations makes them even more delicate. Edmonton is already operating at the edge of the salary cap. Leon Draisaitl’s $14 million extension, Darnell Nurse’s long-term $9.25 million deal, Evan Bouchard’s four-year $42 million contract and recent extensions for Vasily Podkolzin and Trent Frederic all combine to leave the Oilers with very little wiggle room.
With a projected payroll of over $95 million for next season, every dollar of McDavid’s next contract will directly impact the team’s flexibility to improve the roster.
That reality may explain why Friedman thinks McDavid could agree to a number lower than anticipated. While no one doubts he could command a record-setting deal, a slightly more modest cap hit would keep the Oilers competitive.
McDavid meanwhile is already the face of the league with over 1,000 career points and maybe his motivation may no longer be maximizing earnings but maximizing his chances at another Stanley Cup.
Across the NHL, the ripple effects of this decision will be enormous. McDavid’s contract is expected to be the benchmark for every other star and if he comes in lower than $16 million, it could draw a line in the sand for players negotiating their own mega deals. On the other hand if he pushes the ceiling higher, it could reset the market for years.