Elliotte Friedman has watched enough NHL contract negotiations to know when something doesn’t fit the usual script. On the latest episode of 32 Thoughts, the veteran insider suggested that Connor McDavid’s next deal may not look the way people expect.
For a player widely regarded as the best in the world, the assumption has long been that he will set a new salary bar when his current contract expires in 2026. Friedman doesn’t buy it.
“I think it’s going to surprise people where it could end up,” Friedman said.
“I just think he knows that with Draisaitl making what he’s making and Nurse making what he’s making, he can’t go to a new stratosphere.”
That remark cuts against the grain of modern superstar economics. Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon and others have stretched the salary ceiling with their latest extensions, and McDavid’s production dwarfs theirs. Yet Friedman believes McDavid will resist pushing his number sky-high in part because of how the Oilers’ salary ladder is already built.
McDavid is in the final stretch of his contract and his future is already one of the league’s biggest talking points. The captain signed an eight-year, $100 million deal back in 2017 carrying a $12.5 million cap hit. In a league where top stars often push to reset the market, Friedman believes McDavid will take a different approach choosing balance and sustainability over maximizing his personal payout.
Why Connor McDavid might take Oilers cap constraints into consideration
The financial context here is important. McDavid’s teammates, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse, already hold major commitments that shape the Oilers’ cap structure. Draisaitl fresh off an eight-year, $112 million extension will earn $14 million annually through 2033 (puckpedia.com).
Nurse, meanwhile, is locked into an eight-year, $74 million deal that pays $9.25 million per season until 2030.
McDavid has every reason to consider more than just his own number. At age 28, he has already collected six Art Ross Trophies, multiple Hart Trophies and over 900 career points. What he does not have is a Stanley Cup.
For two straight seasons, the Oilers have reached the Final, only to fall short against the Florida Panthers. In 2024-25, McDavid led Edmonton with 33 playoff points in 22 games, yet the Cup still slipped away.
He knows that championships depend not only on his brilliance but on the depth around him. If his contract balloons far beyond those of Draisaitl and Nurse, it could squeeze Edmonton’s ability to build the kind of roster needed to win. By keeping his number closer to theirs, he may leave the Oilers more breathing room to add and retain the right supporting pieces.
Stan Bowman is not alarmed by Connor McDavid’s contract situation
McDavid’s choice will likely define the Oilers’ next decade. A max-level deal could secure him as the league’s highest-paid player, but at the cost of flexibility. A “team-friendly” structure, closer to Draisaitl’s $14 million, might shock the hockey world but would underline his desire to win above all else.
Meanwhile, Oilers general manager Stan Bowman has publicly stressed his belief that McDavid is committed to Edmonton.
“I just go by what Connor said, and that’s that he wants nothing more than to win in Edmonton,” Bowman said at training camp. “I take him at his word…. When he’s ready, he’ll be ready.”
Bowman has framed the timeline as McDavid’s to control. For now, the superstar is focused on preparing for another season, but the bigger decision looms.
As Friedman put it during his podcast, one NHL manager already questioned whether such a prediction is realistic. But Friedman’s conviction that McDavid will avoid chasing the very top of the salary chart aligns with the player’s history of putting the team first.
For now, the Oilers have their captain under contract until 2026. But the decisions made between now and then by both McDavid and management will likely shape Edmonton’s Cup window.