The Edmonton Oilers are a lock to make the postseason this year. According to Money Puck, the Oilers have a 98.6% chance of making the playoffs. That’s not bad at all, considering the Oilers are firmly in second place in the Pacific Division.
Barring a collapse of unimaginable proportions, the Oilers should punch their ticket to the dance sooner, rather than later. Yes, the Oilers are currently riding a three-game skid. But as Connor McDavid said following Sunday’s game, some teams come flat out of the gate following a break.
So, let’s chalk up this past weekend's back-to-back losses as blips on the radar and nothing more. Despite the losses, the Oilers have a five-point cushion on the Los Angeles Kings and are still within striking distance of first place in the division.
With that picture on the horizon, the Oilers look poised to make another strong playoff run this year. While the team can’t rest on its laurels and try to cruise past the rest of the regular season, again, the only thing that could derail the Oilers’ season would be a complete and utter disaster.
Money Puck projects the Edmonton Oilers to finish with 100.9 points this season. Let’s round that off to 101, putting them about four points behind the Vegas Golden Knights who Money Puck has finishing with 105.8 points.
However, things get interesting as Money Puck projects the Oilers have a 4.4% of winning the Stanley Cup. That’s an interesting number to consider, particularly when looking at how Money Puck values the Oilers’ chances of getting past each round.
Looking at Edmonton Oilers odds for each playoff round
Let’s start with the first round. As it stands, the Oilers would meet the Kings yet again. Money Puck values Edmonton’s chances at 49.7% to get past the first round with the Kings at 49.3%. In other words, Money Puck feels a Kings-Oilers first-round matchup would be a toss-up.
With a 50/50 chance to get past the first round, the Oilers’ chances drop to 22.6% to make it out of the first round. That would be assuming that the Oilers could run into the Golden Knights in that second-round matchup.
Now, assuming the Oilers reach the conference final again, their odds drop to 10.3%. This number surely accounts for Edmonton playing someone like the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, or Winnipeg Jets in the third round.
If the Oilers were to reach the Stanley Cup Final again, their odds fall to 4.4%. Interestingly, the team with the highest odds of winning the Cup is the Florida Panthers with 15.3%. It seems Money Puck believes the Panthers have the best chance to win the Cup and repeat as champions.
Ultimately, numbers can change based on standings, team performance, and underlying metrics. But there’s something that statistical models can never account for: Mindset. When teams, no matter how good they are statistically, cannot rise to the occasion, they fall.
Conversely, when teams push their mindsets to the limit, and get hot at the right time, they can become a deadly force in the postseason.
Money Puck shouldn’t count out the will players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have. These guys are money in the bank at the most critical time. Just ask Team USA.