After their loss to their Western Canada rival Vancouver Canucks, the Edmonton Oilers record dropped to 4-4-2 across their first 10 games. Averaged out to a full season that record is roughly 33-33-16, which would give them 82 points over a full 82 game schedule.
According to NHL.com, this record would not get the Oilers into the playoffs historically and would in fact place them in the bottom 10 in the leaguewide standings. This is not only a far cry from where they were expected to end the season but is a great way to illustrate just how disappointing this start has been for the club.
Despite making back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, the Oilers are not guaranteed a third trip, especially if they do not make the playoffs. If that seems dramatic, every year teams who are expected to make it, do not. One of the hardest things to do in the NHL schedule is to make up for losses from October and November when you are fighting for your playoff lives in March and April.
How bad are the Oilers, really?
There is no all-encompassing statistic to tell you how a team is actually performing in games. However, there are multiple advanced stats that can be used to help gauge this and if used properly together, can paint a pretty good picture.
Using evolving-hockey.com, there are a number of stats that are available to see where the Oilers stand amongst their peers. Looking at the Oilers at '5v5' they rank 29th and 16th in goals for per 60 minutes and goals against per 60 minutes, respectively. This means that the club is unsurprisingly not scoring well, while actually being league average in terms of the amount of goals they are allowing.
To dig into this trend further; looking at Corsi, Fenwick, and expected goals, the Oilers are underperforming in both categories. They rank 23rd, 21st, and 24th in CF/60, FF/60, and xGF/60, respectively. On the flipside they rank 6th in CA/60, 3rd in FA/60, and 9th in xGA/60.
This means that the Oilers are not producing offence at a high rate but are scoring at an even lower rate. Although this number will not always be even, given the firepower that the Oilers have up front, it is suprising that it is not better overall.
Oilers have struggled to produce
Looking at the Oilers roster, this makes sense. Connor McDavid currently has 12 points (one goal, 11 assists) in 10 games, while Leon Draisaitl has 11 (seven goals, four assists). Over an 82-game schedule, McDavid is on pace for 98 points (eight of which being goals) while Draisaitl is on pace for only 90 points. Given their previous performances, this would be surprising.
They are not the only two players who have been underperforming expectations to start the season. Evan Bouchard only has four points to start the season, putting him on pace to notch 33 points on the year. He will likely turn his season around as he has not scored at that rate since his rookie season.
Defence or goaltending to blame?
The two biggest lightning rods for criticism on the Oilers roster is their blueline and in their crease. For years the defence has been subpar while the goaltenders have been only slightly better in some cases.
This year on the defensive side, the Oilers are one of the better teams when it comes to suppressing shots and scoring chances but are still getting scored on at a high rate. This could be poor luck or it could be poor goaltending talent, it is hard to know exactly.
Looking at both goalies in isolation at 5-on-5, starter Stuart Skinner ranks 21st amongst goaltenders in goals saved above expected while backup Calvin Pickard sits 32nd. These are not great and definitely hope to improve in that category, or else the Oilers will be forced to make a move at the deadline.
The Oilers have been unlucky to start
To add even more context to the Oilers performance, their on-ice shooting percentage ranks 29th in the league while their save percentage ranks 26th. Combining these two numbers gives us a team's "PDO" which for years has been used as a measurement for how lucky or unlucky a team is. Combining these two numbers gives us 96.4 with '100' being a rough league average number.
This indicates that the Oilers have been quite unlucky to start the season and given the talent on the roster, should be able to turn things around. However, if we remember, the Oilers have also struggled mightily to generate chances both from a quality and quantity perspective.
There are plenty of things that could lead to this but with them underperforming on both sides of the ice, it is safe to assume that even with very little changes -- possibly the return of a high end forward in Zach Hyman from injury -- the Oilers should be able to turn things around this year. It just depends on when that may be.
In short, there are flaws to worry about but there has also been a heavy dose of bad luck mixed in. Thankfully, the season is young and there should be plenty of time for the Oilers to turn it around.