3 questions the Edmonton Oilers must answer before deciding on Stuart Skinner
The Edmonton Oilers face a dilemma regarding Stuart Skinner. He's set to become a free agent after next season, forcing the team to make a tough choice regarding their current starting netminder.
The Edmonton Oilers are in a pickle when it comes to Stuart Skinner’s next contract. He is set to become an unrestricted free agent after next season. As such, there are three questions Oilers management needs to answer as Skinner’s free-agent season looms on the horizon.
So, let’s explore these questions and their potential answers. Now, I must warn readers that the answers to these questions may not be pretty.
1) Do the Oilers want to keep Stuart Skinner?
The biggest question has to be whether the Oilers really want to keep Skinner in town? This question has two possible answers.
If yes, the Oilers must determine how much he’s worth and how long they want to keep him around. Skinner is 26 at the moment and could be worthy of an eight-year deal.
But do the Oilers want to commit to Skinner for that long? Moreover, do the Oilers truly envision Skinner as their goaltender for the next decade or so?
If that’s the case, the Oilers could max out a deal for him. Perhaps now, when his value is arguably at its lowest, the Oilers could lock him up for a reasonable cap hit. If Skinner truly emerges as the undisputed number-one guy, the Oilers could have themselves a bargain.
Then, there’s the no-side of the equation. If the Oilers feel Skinner isn’t the guy they need, what happens next? Do they let him walk? Does the club trade him? Is there any middle ground? Do the Oilers go big on a marquee netminder?
Whatever the Oilers do from now until the trade deadline this season, will determine where Skinner stands with the team. While it’s unlikely the Oilers get a big-name goaltender at this time, things could change in the offseason.
2) How much is Skinner worth?
All right, here’s a tough question. Skinner's current cap hit is $2.6 million. That’s not awful, but it’s on the cusp of what could become an unreasonable cap hit.
Allow me to elaborate.
Let’s assume that Skinner feels he’s worth a raise, say, something in the $5 million a year range. That could be too much for the Oilers to pay considering his track record, relative inconsistency, and the looming extensions for Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid.
Moreover, would any team pay Skinner $5 million a season? Could Skinner turn into another Jack Campbell?
So, let’s say the Oilers make a courtesy offer somewhere between $2.5 to $3 million per season. Would that be something Skinner goes for? Does he take a short-term “show-me” deal to prove he’s worth a long-term commitment at a much higher price point?
Judging by his track record, his current three-year deal is precisely that, a show-me deal. Thus far, he hasn’t fully convinced anyone he’s worth anything beyond his current $2.6 million cap hit. Despite the tremendously good streaks Skinner has been on, the frustrating part has been the lack of consistency.
As such, would re-signing Skinner be a gamble too big for the Edmonton Oilers to make? Personally, I like to play things safe. While there are no sure bets in life, signing Skinner to a long-term deal with a high AAV could come back to bite the club.
Looking at the mistake with Campbell, the Oilers may be stuck with an untradable contract. That’s a big if that may keep the Oilers from giving Skinner a raise on his next contract. While the Oilers may want to keep Skinner, a low-ball deal could be on the horizon.
3) Do the Edmonton Oilers trade Skinner?
Let’s now assume the Oilers choose to pass on Skinner. The team feels he’s not the guy and needs to move on. Moreover, the team doesn’t want to let him walk away for nothing. So, the decision is to trade him.
At that point, the Oilers must assess the market. Would there be a market for Skinner? Who would be willing to pony up to land him? Most importantly, would a team be desperate enough to overpay?
Perhaps a team like the Colorado Avalanche could be enticed to pay up. The Toronto Maple Leafs are another team in goaltending limbo. Could a rebuilding club like the Montreal Canadiens or Chicago Blackhawks be willing to take a chance on Skinner?
Additionally, could a contending team looking for help act at the trade deadline? Say, a team like the Florida Panthers or Carolina Hurricanes look into Skinner as goaltending insurance?
Sure, these deals may come up. But the bottom line is that dealing Skinner would mean either making Calvin Pickard the starter or getting another goalie in return.
Some might feel that Oliver Rodrigue should get a realistic shot at making the team. But beyond Rodrigue, there isn’t a goalie prospect that could come up and fill the void. That goalie prospect was Skinner.
The Oilers now have a bare cupboard. So, the only realistic shot would be to get another goalie in return or pursue a big-name free agent. But with the limited cap space the Oilers are likely to have, there may not be much room to fit a contract like Jeremy Swayman’s or much less what Igor Shesterkin is likely to get.
At the end of the day, it seems the Oilers are stuck with Skinner, for better or worse. The safest bet would be to re-sign him to a reasonable deal, something like a four-year deal worth about $3.5 million per season at most.
Then, the Oilers would need to make sure their defence picks up the slack, making life as manageable as possible for Skinner. While this approach wouldn’t be about babysitting him, it would be about everyone being accountable for their role on the team.
Next. Stuart Skinner's anger justified no matter what caused it. Stuart Skinner's anger justified no matter what caused it. dark
Skinner’s future depends on what he and his teammates can do this season. A Stanley Cup would surely make this entire conversation moot.
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