2) How much is Skinner worth?
All right, here’s a tough question. Skinner's current cap hit is $2.6 million. That’s not awful, but it’s on the cusp of what could become an unreasonable cap hit.
Allow me to elaborate.
Let’s assume that Skinner feels he’s worth a raise, say, something in the $5 million a year range. That could be too much for the Oilers to pay considering his track record, relative inconsistency, and the looming extensions for Evan Bouchard and Connor McDavid.
Moreover, would any team pay Skinner $5 million a season? Could Skinner turn into another Jack Campbell?
So, let’s say the Oilers make a courtesy offer somewhere between $2.5 to $3 million per season. Would that be something Skinner goes for? Does he take a short-term “show-me” deal to prove he’s worth a long-term commitment at a much higher price point?
Judging by his track record, his current three-year deal is precisely that, a show-me deal. Thus far, he hasn’t fully convinced anyone he’s worth anything beyond his current $2.6 million cap hit. Despite the tremendously good streaks Skinner has been on, the frustrating part has been the lack of consistency.
As such, would re-signing Skinner be a gamble too big for the Edmonton Oilers to make? Personally, I like to play things safe. While there are no sure bets in life, signing Skinner to a long-term deal with a high AAV could come back to bite the club.
Looking at the mistake with Campbell, the Oilers may be stuck with an untradable contract. That’s a big if that may keep the Oilers from giving Skinner a raise on his next contract. While the Oilers may want to keep Skinner, a low-ball deal could be on the horizon.