Rocket Richard Trophy- Leon Draisaitl Vs Auston Matthews

As we narrow in on the end of the season, it looks like the Edmonton Oilers and Leon Draisaitl are well on their way to locking in on a playoff spot. Now that the team is having success it’s now to take a look at personal stats and awards. One spot that there is a battle is for the Rocket Richard Trophy.

The Rocket Richard Award is given to the NHL player that scores the most goals in the regular season. Right now it appears to be a battle between Edmonton Oilers, Leon Draisaitl and Toronto Maple Leafs, Auston Matthews.

Right now Matthews has 49 goals while Toronto has 16 games left to play. Leon Draisaitl has 48 goals with 15 games remaining. So the question is can Leon average more goals per game than Auston Matthews. So far this season Matthews averages 0.8 G/GM and Draisaitl averages 0.72 G/GM.

Over their careers Matthews has averaged 0.63 G/GM while Leon has a 0.45 G/GM. So if Leon Draisaitl wants to win the Rocket Richard he will need to score at a career best clip. On the opposite side if Matthews keeps scoring at the rate he may be able to reach the 60 goal mark. The 60 goal mark hasn’t been hit since Steven Stamkos in the 2011-2012 season.

What needs to happen to get Leon the Rocket Richard?

There is not a doubt that Auston Matthews is a heavy favorite to win the goal scoring title this year with the way that he is scoring right now. That doesn’t mean that Draisaitl doesn’t have a chance, he just needs lots of things to go right.

One thing that will needs to be happen if he wants to have a chance, is power play success. The Edmonton Oilers power play is excellent and when it has success Leon is scoring goals. So far this season Draisaitl has 20 goals while on the man advantage, Matthews only has 14. So if the Oilers can get rolling on the powerplay Leon has a chance to pass Matthews.

Another thing that could help Leon climb up in the goal column is to take more shots. Leon Draisaitl this season has a shooting percentage of 21.1%. He has an excellent shot and needs to use it more. Matthews also has an excellent shot, but his shooting % is 17.7%.

Why it will be hard for Leon Draisaitl to pass Auston Matthews?

Not only do the Toronto Maple Leafs have one more game to play, but they play against easier competition in those games. Of Toronto’s remaining 16 games they play 6 teams that have more goals allowed against the league average of goals against. Where the Oilers only have 3 games against teams in that ranges.

This means that in theory the Leafs are going to score more goals over the remainder of the season. Auston Matthews currently has scored 20% of Toronto’s goals. If Toronto, over their remaining games average 3 goals a game(which is lower than their average of 3.7) and Matthews continues to score 20% of the goals he will score 9 goals(9.6 actual).

For Leon Draisaitl, he scores 21% of the Oilers goals. If the Oilers average 3 goals as well, Leon would add 9 goals as well. The fact that the Oilers are playing against harder competition make it less likely that Draisaitl will move about his norm and more likely that Matthews does.

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Still a fun race to watch.

Just because it is unlikely that Leon Draisaitl will win the Rocket Richard Trophy, doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Draisaitl isn’t going to focus on only scoring goals at this point in the season he, wants to make the playoffs. Leon knows in order to get to the playoffs he needs to continue to score.

This is why I think there is a chance for him to do it. Leon has the ability to take over a game and sometimes appears to score at will. If he wants to win the scoring race he is going to have to pull out that Leon Draisaitl several times down the stretch.