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Fixing the Defense: A 2019 Offseason Analysis

By Silas Bengtsson

ANAHEIM, CA - FEBRUARY 09: Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse (25) keeps in front of Anaheim Ducks rightwing Corey Perry (10) during the first period of a game played on February 9, 2018 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA - FEBRUARY 09: Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse (25) keeps in front of Anaheim Ducks rightwing Corey Perry (10) during the first period of a game played on February 9, 2018 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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The Unworthy

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 09: Josh Anderson #77 of the Columbus Blue Jackets skates with the puck ahead of Colin Miller #6 of the Vegas Golden Knights in the third period of their game at T-Mobile Arena on February 9, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Blue Jackets defeated the Golden Knights 4-3. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – FEBRUARY 09: Josh Anderson #77 of the Columbus Blue Jackets skates with the puck ahead of Colin Miller #6 of the Vegas Golden Knights in the third period of their game at T-Mobile Arena on February 9, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Blue Jackets defeated the Golden Knights 4-3. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /

RD, Colin Miller, 6’1 196lbs (65GP, 3G, 26A) – I’ve been reading a lot of buzz about him being available lately and I can understand why on a surface-level. He excels in the possession battle, puts up attractive looking numbers and is a RD with a powerful slapshot. He has a lot of the qualities of one of those rare, underappreciated offensive Dmen teams are looking for. However, once you scratch past that cursory view of him, the cracks begin to show.

First and foremost, his offense really becomes notably less impressive once you remove the PP points he accumulated. With a grand total of 13 even strength points, he would’ve ranked 6th- behind Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, Benning and Russell- on the Oilers blueline last season. Adjusting for minutes played only moves him up to 4th on the list.

Next you have his negative impact on his team’s HDGF% (relHDGF% of -3.48 w/ two seasons below -8%) despite playing pretty soft minutes (only 26.9% TOI against Elites) and consistently fails to stop his opposition from converting on their fewer high-danger chances (11.39% HDC, 18.20% HDP, -6.81 HDD).

While he seems to make up for some of this negative impact by simply outchancing his opposition (raw HDCF% of 59.1%, 52.2%, 59% the last 3 years), there’s something to be said for such consistent failure to control the goal leak in your own end and his healthy scratching in this year’s playoffs supports this.

RD, Tyler Myers, 6’7 229lb (80GP, 9G, 21A) – Here’s a case of a guy who has every tool you could want and is coming available at precisely the right time. If only he was everything his kit would have you believe. He’s a moderately-skilled, tall RD with a few notable flaws.

While he generally keeps things close across raw measures, he’s consistently below his team average pretty much across the board. In the high-danger battle, he has a negative impact in both directions (relHDCF/60 of -0.18, relHDCA/60 of +0.87)

This wouldn’t be so bad if he was playing the kinds of minutes Jacob Trouba is playing, but Myers actually sees the softest deployment of the Jets’ trio of RD (29.6% TOI against Elites Vs. 41.5% for Trouba and 37.6% for Byfuglien).

He’s certainly not a disastrous of a player as our next entry and might actually make for a solid top-4 Dman in the right situation, what the market will likely give him will be WELL beyond the value he brings and, as such, qualifies as unworthy of pursuit.

RD, Cody Ceci, 6’2 209lbs (74GP, 7G, 19A) – This horse has been beaten so far beyond death one can be forgiven for feeling an ounce of pity. I’ll keep it brief. Believe what’s been said before; he’s absolutely awful in the role he’s in now and was pretty bad in the only other role he’s played.

Conclusion

I hope some of you have managed to will your way through the wall of text above here. If you did, I encourage you to share your thoughts and stances in the comments; I’d appreciate to hear what you liked, disliked, what you’d like to see more of, etc.

In particular, if anyone cares to critique or question the methodology behind the statistics I chose to use and omit, I welcome it! As I mentioned below the legend, some of these stats are ‘in the works’ and, as such, would (likely) benefit from some public scrutiny.

Next week, I’ll be diving into the upcoming NHL Entry Draft. Thanks for reading!

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