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Fixing the Defense: A 2019 Offseason Analysis

By Silas Bengtsson

ANAHEIM, CA - FEBRUARY 09: Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse (25) keeps in front of Anaheim Ducks rightwing Corey Perry (10) during the first period of a game played on February 9, 2018 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA - FEBRUARY 09: Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse (25) keeps in front of Anaheim Ducks rightwing Corey Perry (10) during the first period of a game played on February 9, 2018 at the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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The Conditionals

WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 13: Washington Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby (70) makes a third period save against Carolina Hurricanes right wing Justin Williams (14) who is defended by defenseman Matt Niskanen (2) on April 13, 2019, at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 13: Washington Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby (70) makes a third period save against Carolina Hurricanes right wing Justin Williams (14) who is defended by defenseman Matt Niskanen (2) on April 13, 2019, at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

 

RD, Matt Niskanen, 6’1 203lbs (80GP, 8G, 17A) – A solid RD veteran whose game has been stifled somewhat by being forced into taking on top opposition (38.7% of TOI Vs Elites) to free some wiggle room for Carlson. With Washington in need of some cap space and having a reasonable replacement in Nick Jensen, I’ve read word that Niskanen would be available as almost a cap dump.

He still makes hay in limiting chances (relHDCA/60 of -0.51), his offensive game has struggled (relHDCF/60 of -1.42). Thankfully for us, we already have a RD who’s better equipped to take on the burden of defensive responsibility in Larsson. This might serve to open the doors a bit for him as he trends toward the end of his contract.

He’s not someone I’d want to add unless we could clear up some cap space first. If we could move Russell in a separate deal and replace him with Niskanen (+1.75mil in cap), I think the team would see an improvement and be a better fit for Tippett’s desire for up-tempo hockey.

Cost to acquire: Low (cap dump of sorts)

RD, Greg Pateryn, 6’3 223lbs (80GP, 1G, 6A) – In the event of a Benning trade, I think we’d benefit from replacing him with another RHD. However, their handedness is pretty much where the similarities end. Pateryn is a rugged, defensive Dman who has made his name through stout defending (relHDCA/60 of -1.97) and handling more of a share of the oppositions middle-6 lines than most bottom-pairing Dmen tend to- and he kept them within reach.

His bread & butter is the high-danger areas as he consistently outperforms his team to the tune of a +5.53 relHDGF and- with the exception of a tough season in Montreal- an above 50% raw number. Not an ideal target to fill the 2RD hole, but might be able to pull it off adequately for a season or two and wouldn’t cost the world to acquire.

Cost to acquire: Low

LD, Patrik Nemeth, 6’3 219lbs (74GP, 1G, 9A) or LD, Carl Gunnarsson, 6’2 197lbs (25, 3G, 4A) – If we end up moving Benning and finding ourselves unable to find a replacement via trade, free agency has two very solid and likely cheap veterans to help mentor whoever of our prospects makes the cut. Both Nemeth and Gunnarsson produce similar results in their unsheltered, 3rd pairing roles.

Nemeth excels is in his high-danger numbers: strong raw numbers the past three years (56.8%, 55.7% and 54.6%), excellent relative numbers (relHDCA/60 of -1.36 and relHDGF% of +5.3), keeps his HDD close (12.92% HDC, 11.42% HDP, +1.49 HDD)  of all while not stifling his team’s offensive results (relHDCF/60 of +0.7).

Meanwhile, Gunnarsson has a hugely positive impact on preventing high-danger chances (relHDCA/60 of -1.79), holds a high-danger chances close and has been a positive goal share player in all but one of the past 7 years. This is balanced out by a significant negative impact on his team’s attack (relHDCF/60 of -0.86) and an only-recent spike in his raw HDGF% numbers (65.4%, 58.1%, 32%[!!!], 49%, 40.9%).

Factor in a 6-year age gap and it’s clear to see why Nemeth would be a preferable option, but Gunnarsson is a solid, under-the-radar backup plan.

Cost to acquire: Cap space

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