The Edmonton Oilers and The Bottleneck Effect on Their Roster

In Biology, the bottleneck effect is an event wherein a species of animal has a sharp reduction in population due to an environmental change. As training camp approaches so does a bottleneck event for the Edmonton Oilers hopefuls in Europe.

Yes, as is common knowledge the Edmonton Oilers will leave for Germany September 29th and not come back till after their home opener on October 6 against the Devils. This creates an exciting training camp dynamic as the roster has must be as close to finalized as possible before they leave to Europe.

There is an interesting number of players who are on the cusp of NHL action who could conceivably make the team out of camp. Much more so than Oilers teams of the past where rookies got force fed NHL minutes, regardless of how ready they were. It seems now; our prospect pool will have to fight to make it to the big leagues.

Roster Locks

Although the competition in camp will be exciting to see, I first want to list my roster locks. I feel strongly that Todd McLellan intends to run his forward lines in pairings and shuffle the rest of the players around them. Currently, I believe the pairings look a little like this:

Nugent-Hopkins-McDavid-X

Lucic-Draisatl-X

X-Strome-Puljujarvi

X-Brodziak-Kassian

This means that there are presently four roster spots up for grabs. Players not listed that are also roster locks include Tobias Rieder, Drake Cagguila, and Jujhar Khaira. These players will help make up the rest of the forward core. However, I do not believe their positions will be stationary. I think we’ll see a lot of Mclellan’s blender with the rest of the forwards.

The defense is a lot more cemented with only two spots that are not currently filled by players. This means that a lot of pressure is going to be on the main cast from last year to rebound and improve. In my opinion, the Oilers pairings are going to shake out like this:

Klefbom-Larsson

Nurse-Benning

Russell-X

In my mind barring any surprises, there are four names fighting for those two spots. Although with the Jerabek signing netting him an even one million dollars I’m guessing he makes the team. So, in reality, four names are fighting for one spot, barring any big surprises.]

Fighting Upstream: Forwards

There are a lot of training camp battles to be fought this year. Along with two PTO contracts the Oilers have fringe players and prospects vying for roster spots. While only some of these players will make the trip to Europe, it’s interesting to look at the maybe’s as a whole.

At the forward position the Oilers have put themselves into a situation where once again, the top nine is fluid. The only three positions at wing that are solid are Kassian at 4RW, Nugent-Hopkins at 1LW, and Lucic at 2LW (although Lucic may end up on the third line).

This means that it is up to Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Rattie, Aberg, Cagguila, Rieder, Khaira, and Upshall to produce enough to stick at the NHL level. All of these players are not sure things. All of them have warts in their game, be it lack of experience, ability, attitude, or skill. Which once again begs the question, is this good enough?

Puljujarvi and Yamamoto remain talented, raw, and unproven. Rattie and Aberg are NHL level talents, but is their ceiling higher than a fringe player? How will Cagguila do with the pressure of a new contract, and the expectation of more offense? Will Khaira continue to build on his strong rookie year, and can he provide more secondary offense? How will Rieder fit into his new team, and does he have an offensive 2nd gear that could be unlocked?

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Outside of those seven names, there could potentially be some surprises in camp as there are some outside prospects who could surprise in camp. Safin is a player that combines speed, skill, and size in an interesting way. He was also a point a game player in the CHL on a bad Saint Johns team. Cooper Maroody showed exceptionally well in his cameo in the AHL last season. He was also over a point a game player for Michigan in the big ten last season.

Our forward depth, while vastly improved, still shows that we do not have a solid roster make that teams such as Boston or Tampa Bay or Nashville do. While they employ players like Rattie or Aberg, They do not rely on them to take jobs in the top 6 as a backup plan to their marquee prospects. However, in the context of training camp, it will make for entertaining hockey right out of the gate. This is one training camp that I’m very eager to attend as compete level will be very high, with the margin for error very slim.

Fighting Upstream: Defense

On defense, the competition for NHL employment is minimal compared to the forwards. Five of six roster spots are already robust and it’s making me nervous. Seeing the same defense core that failed last year back again with again no back up for Sekera is shocking. Especially after the visible damage, it caused the defense core the previous season.

Jakub Jerabek, Jason Garrison, Ethan Bear, Evan Bouchard, Kevin Gravel, Weird list right? Chiarelli has assembled an Island of misfit toys situation, acquiring as many depth guys as he can seemingly get his hands on. Now it seems like the point of this is so Bear and Bouchard won’t see the NHL this season. My question is can you argue that Bear and Bouchard can’t beat the other three out for roster spots?

Gravel is a player whose offense seemingly tried out at the AHL level, never eclipsing 20 points in a season at the professional level. Jerabek while productive at the KHL level and AHL level have yet to show that effectiveness at the NHL level. Garrison while at one point was a legitimate top-four defenseman, has not been productive offensively or defensively since the 2014-15 NHL season.

Are these players earth shakers? No, but they are some capable 6-7 defenseman that can take minutes away from our prospects. If that is the plan for this season, to bridge the gap between Bear and Bouchard’s arrival with replacement level players, We are in for one long 2018-19 season.

At least we still have three more years of Kris Russell am I right?

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