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Why Kris Knoblauch is the perfect hire for an analytics-driven Leafs team

Kris Knoblauch might not have been able to get the Edmonton Oilers to a Stanley Cup title, but could his approach to coaching be a strong fit for a Leafs team that is becoming increasingly reliant on statistics?
Jun 12, 2025; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch looks on during the third period against the Florida Panthers in game four of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Jun 12, 2025; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch looks on during the third period against the Florida Panthers in game four of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

I was not a big fan of the news that ex-Arizona Coyotes general manager John Chayka would assume such a role with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

But as a renewed opportunity to contend begins to materialize, it's worth thinking about the possibility that the team somehow nails the top pick in the draft by selecting highly-coveted forward Gavin McKenna. When paired with some of the best forwards in the league, McKenna could easily be a Calder favorite.

In terms of the team's leadership, it's also a chance to finally get everyone onto the same playing field. No matter who the Leafs hire as the franchise's 42nd head coach, they will be the first in well over a decade to start at the same time as a general manager. Back in 2015, both Mike Babcock and Lou Lamoriello would start their work with the team as head coach and general manager respectively.

Kyle Dubas would proceed to enter the general manager role in the final years of Babcock's time as head coach, overseeing the subsequent hire of Sheldon Keefe, while ex-Leafs general manager Brad Treliving came in after the 2023 season and, like Craig Berube, left the team after the 2025-26 campaign.

Keith Pelley lives data, John Chayka breathes data, why not bring in a data-based head coach?

When Keith Pelley and MLSE launched the searched for their new hockey leadership, they emphasized a need for data to be a part of any candidate's portfolio.

Despite his baggage, Chayka fits that bill. The co-founder of Stathletes, which utilizes athlete performance statistics to drive analytics for teams and allow for a firmer grasp of which players can best reinforce a team's roster, is known for drafting talents like Clayton Keller and Jakob Chychrun. Keller has become a centrepiece for a Utah Mammoth team that gave the Vegas Golden Knights a run for their money in the opening round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs, while Chychrun has established himself as a top defenseman in the Washington Capitals' blue-line corps.

So if Pelley wants data, it's never a bad idea to bring in more data. Say what you will about the AI allegations but if that's the culture the Leafs want to build then by all means have at it.

But with that approach comes a need to hire a data-driven head coach.

This is where Kris Knoblauch, a name that has started to gain momentum in conversations surrounding the potential identity of the Leafs' next head coach, comes into the fray.

While not a super-duper-strict analytics coach, Knoblauch knows where, how, and in which roles to deploy his best players. His Oilers were sixth in the NHL in goals scored per game, second in power play goals, and they were the best power play team this past season even with the likes of Leon Draisaitl out for part of the regular season. And even when missing almost twenty games, Draisaitl still scored 16 times on the power play, with McDavid just behind at 13.

While the Oilers might not have been the best team in the league in terms of goaltending this past season, they still gave up the ninth-fewest shots on goal. That said, the shots that went through the defense had goal potential; the Oilers were eighth-last in goals conceded per game and they made the eighth-fewest saves. The Oilers also had the fourth-worst save percentage.

During Knoblauch's first season, the Oilers were fourth in goals scored per game, fifth in power play goals, and they had the fourth-best power play unit. They didn't have the best penalty kill unit, but it excelled during the postseason.

Defensively, the Oilers gave up the tenth-fewest goals and the fifth-fewest shots on goal.

All of that based on one simple rule: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can (and must) lead the charge offensively, and we must do everything in our power to use them in such situations.

Despite the modest success, proper deployment is something that has lacked in Toronto over the past few seasons; HockeyPatrol stated that Matthews started shifts in defensive zone situations almost 50% of the time during the Leafs' Atlantic Division-winning 2024-25 season and 42% of the time during the subsequent 2025-26 campaign.

That decrease came even in considering the fact that Mitch Marner, who could easily be seen as a two-way player, left for Vegas during the summer of 2025. Compare that with his defensive zone starts under Sheldon Keefe (roughly 33% during the 2023-24 campaign and only a quarter of the time the season prior) and one sees that there is an inverse relationship between offensive output and defensive presence when it comes to Matthews' play under the two coaches.

What is Knoblauch's future?

Considering Knoblauch's success in Edmonton, any team with a head coach opening will more than likely be lining up to secure his signature.

The Leafs should be a part of that line. They did well to secure a big name coach the last time they were in the market, and this hiring cycle should be no different.

But they also must be tactical, and they cannot hire a big-name head coach simply to satisfy the millions of die-hard Maple Leafs fans and the hungry, hungry Toronto media waiting to tear anyone to shreds like the Velociraptors in Jurassic Park and both its good and not-so-good sequels.

The Leafs must pick the big-name coach that will best understand the roster and that will know how to deploy the likes of Matthews, William Nylander, and whoever the team takes with the top pick in the draft.

Having worked with two of the most talented hockey players on the planet, Chayka must realize that Knoblauch is the hire he has to make.

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