What the next landmark Connor McDavid contract could look like

The Edmonton Oilers general manager Stan Bowman has had a good tenure so far in Oil Country. He has made a few savvy trades to shore up the team's depth now and for the future, while adding some low risk high reward free agent signings. In terms of getting pertinent business done, like the Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard contract extensions, he has done well there too. 

There is still one cloud hanging above the heads of the Oilers front office staff — the contract of franchise cornerstone — Connor McDavid. He is due for an extension that kicks in next season but will hopefully be done soon, according to the latest rumors.

Draisaitl signed for a record-setting contract at $14 million annual average value (AAV). Yet, still less than Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews on a cap hit percentage basis, while locking up the star scorer for a max term, eight-year deal. Bouchard on the other hand signed a four-year extension at $10.5 million AAV, this is in line with other elite offensive defensemen like Bouchard and should prove to be a good value deal for both sides.

These same rumors reported that McDavid could be seeking to maximize his earnings by chasing after a shorter term, two-year or four-year contract, at or around $17.5 million per season. If signed, this would greatly exceed Draisaitl's record of $14 million AAV in terms of both monetary value and cap hit percentage.

Predicting McDavid's next contract

To coincide with the report from the 2 Mutts Hockey Podcast -- which accurately predicted Leon Draisaitl's contract last September -- NHL insider Chris Johnston said in June that he anticipates the McDavid contract to be short term, to apply pressure on the organization to continue to be competitive.

Taking this into account, the report surrounding the McDavid contract, sets the ceiling for the contract at $17.5 million but with the superstar having already left money on the table last time, it would make sense that he could do the same here. Using Puckpedia, I have looked at a few comparable contracts nd tried to determine where McDavid could land.

Using MacKinnon, Matthews, and Draisaitl as comparable deals, their cap hit percentages range from 14.66 percent to 15.1 percent. At the announced payroll rate of $104 million for the 2026-27 season, the first year of the deal, this would put McDavid's AAV range around $15.25 million - $15.7 million. Given McDavid's status as the best hockey player on the planet, it would make sense that he comes in at a higher percentage than the others and given the large expected jump in the salary cap, his contract could have a significantly higher AAV as a result.

It is also important to note that all three of the aforementioned comparable players saw jumps in their cap hit percentage from their previous deal to their current one. Draisaitl and MacKinnon specifically saw a jump of three or more percent while Matthews saw a less than one percent increase, this likely has to do with the respective jumps in production and status of all three players. McDavid's cap hit percent on his previous deal was around 15.7 percent, a number that is noticeably higher than the others'.

If we believe McDavid will once again set a landmark deal, he will likely see a cap hit increase by an amount that is more aligned with Matthews, to around 16.5 percent. This would put his AAV at slightly above $17 million, which is only slightly below the report from the 2 Mutts podcast.

So, keeping all of this in mind, I predict that McDavid's next contract will be for four years at around a $17 million AAV, with the reported $17.5 million being on the upper range. If he follows the lead of the other stars in the game, it will be for $17 million on the dot (or the reported $17.5 million). As expected and just like his last contract, this will be a new record and deservedly so for a once in a generation player like himself.