What if Edmonton Oilers had never drafted Nail Yakupov in 2012?

This thought experiment explores what would have happened if the Edmonton Oilers had never drafted Nail Yakupov first overall in the 2012 NHL Draft.
Edmonton Oilers didn't have many other choices beyond Nail Yakupov in 2012.
Edmonton Oilers didn't have many other choices beyond Nail Yakupov in 2012. | Codie McLachlan/GettyImages

The Edmonton Oilers’ selection of Nail Yakupov in 2012 is a well-known and discussed topic. Yakupov is widely considered as the biggest NHL Draft bust in history. So, we won’t be piling on that rhetoric in this thought experiment.

Instead, we will be looking at an alternative reality. What if the Edmonton Oilers had never drafted Nail Yakupov first overall in 2012?

It’s an intriguing thought. It’s one that deserves a look. Although I should warn readers that, looking back at the 2012 NHL Draft itself, finding a better option at number one would have been a challenge.

The Oilers entered the draft with the first-overall pick for the third year in a row. In 2010, the Oilers had taken Taylor Hall. The following year, Edmonton took Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Both picks looked good for the Oilers.

So, the Oilers were looking to take a third franchise player with their first-overall pick in 2012. They thought they had that player in Yakupov. In his draft year, Yakupov scored 31 goals and 69 points in 42 games with the Sarnia Sting of the OHL. The year before, Yakupov had scored 101 points in 65 games.

He was the no-brainer pick that year. If the Oilers had picked anyone, they would have been laughed out of the room. So, the Oilers went with the flow and missed big time.

But when looking at the rest of the 2012 first-round draft class, the pickings were sort of slim.

Oilers didn’t have much of a choice in 2012 NHL Draft

So, who was taken second overall? The Columbus Blue Jackets took Ryan Murray. He played in 445 total NHL Games, failing to live up to the hype as a second-overall pick. He won a Stanley Cup in Colorado in 2022, playing a depth role. He ended his career with the Oilers, playing 13 games in the 2022-23 season.

The third overall pick was Alex Galchenyuk. His checkered history has led him to bounce around the league, failing to gain traction. The New York Islanders took Griffin Reinhart with the fourth-overall pick. Reinhart played all of 37 NHL games and was done.

The Toronto Maple Leafs hit pay dirt with Morgan Rielly at number five. So, that means the Oilers would have had to reach for Rielly with the first-overall pick. In fact, the Oilers could have taken Hampus Lindholm, Matt Dumba, and Jacob Trouba as they went, six, seven, and nine, respectively.

At number 11, the Washington Capitals took Filip Forsberg. What if the Oilers had taken Forsberg instead of Yakupov? That’s a real stretch. It would have never happened.

The reality is that if the Oilers hadn’t taken Yakupov, the choice would have come down to Murray or Galchenyuk. Perhaps Galchenyuk might have reached his potential in Edmonton, who knows?

Perhaps if the Oilers had taken a chance on Andrei Vasilevskiy, who the Tampa Bay Lightning took at #19, the Oilers wouldn’t be looking for a goalie right now.

But then again, there’s no reason to believe the Oilers would have considered anyone else in 2012. Yakupov was the guy. Unless the Oilers got a visit from someone from the future, the choice was always going to be Yakupov.