While the Edmonton Oilers have just one game left in their regular season campaign, the options for their first round matchup in the playoffs are still plentiful.
Such options consist of a division title and an encounter with the Utah Mammoth, another rematch with the Los Angeles Kings, an opportunity to host a "welcome back to the playoffs party" for the Anaheim Ducks, and a rematch of the 2022 Western Conference Final against the Colorado Avalanche.
Here's the full breakdown of everything that could happen and the first round matchups that would result from such scenarios.
The first (and potentially only) step is simple: win
With one game left in the regular season, a win for Edmonton would guarantee home ice advantage for the first round of the playoffs. Even if Anaheim and Los Angeles won their respective final games of the season, they would still end up a point short of the Oilers.
A win would also give the Oilers the Pacific Division title if the Golden Knights were to lose in regulation to the Seattle Kraken. The Golden Knights play their game against the Kraken a day before the Oilers contest their regular-season finale, meaning that they will know if the division is in play before the puck drops on their game.
If they lose? A potential disaster in the making
An overtime loss might not be the end of the world, but a regulation loss almost certainly would. Simply put, any loss to the Canucks on Thursday would eliminate the Oilers from the division title race even if the Golden Knights lost to the Kraken.
If the Oilers lose in overtime to the Canucks, they would still earn home ice advantage as they would hold the regulation wins tiebreaker on both the Ducks and the Kings.
If the Oilers lose to the Canucks in regulation, that's where things get a little tricky. To earn home ice advantage, Edmonton would need Anaheim and Los Angeles to lose their games in any fashion. If just one of Anaheim or Los Angeles won their regular-season finales, then Edmonton would be forced to settle for third in the division.
But if both the Ducks and Kings won? Not only would the Oilers move down to fourth in the Pacific Division, but they would also be stuck in a first-round matchup with the Avalanche. The Oilers would not be able to avoid the matchup as the Utah Mammoth already clinched the top wild card spot in the Western Conference courtesy of their 5-3 win on Tuesday over the Winnipeg Jets.
What could Edmonton's first round outlook look like?
If the Oilers win, they will be guaranteed to face the Kings, Mammoth, or Ducks in the first round.
If the Oilers end up third in the Pacific courtesy of a regulation loss and either the Ducks or the Kings lose their own matchup, they will face the divisional rival that wins their regular-season finale.
An Edmonton-Vegas first-round series is mathematically impossible; the earliest the two teams could play each other is the second round.
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