There are two factors that make an NHL Draft selection a bad one. First, the player themself may lack the skills, ability or determination to carve out a role for themself at the highest level of professional hockey. Teams have entire amateur scouting teams whose sole job is to identify potential amongst teenage players that will prove itself by turning into production with time and coaching.
The other factor is, who is not selected. Error by omission is always hard to spot, for the same reasons that it's difficult to know beyond any doubt that a draft pick will become a NHL regular. The names left on the board can often hurt far more than a pick whose development stall, or who simply lacks the speed or agility to compete against the best.
The Edmonton Oilers have made both mistakes more than once in their franchise history. We're going to look at a couple of these picks and imagine how things might have gone differently
Nail Yakupov: 2012 NHL Draft - 1st Overall
Nail Yakupov had a lot of offensive promise. Well over a point-per-game in his final two years in junior, he also produced at IIHF events like the U-18 tournament and the World Juniors (U-20). His game had known defensive deficiencies, but he was a consensus top three pick, so few can blame the Oilers for the decision.
Yakupov, like many players when they reach the NHL, couldn't get the game to slow down for him. He appeared panicky with the puck, leading to poor decisions and defensive gaffs. His offense never fully translated to the big leagues, so the trade off simply wasn't worth it. It didn't help that Edmonton was a rebuilding team that didn't appear to know how to convert young, imperfect players into pros (just ask Jesse Puljujarvi).
Looking back at the 2012 Draft, Morgan Reilly might have been the best pick in the Top Five, but three clubs selecting after Edmonton missed those signs as well. The 2012 first round had loads of talent, and arguably even the L.A. Kings, picking 30th, ended up with a better player than the Oilers.
Steve Kelly: 1995 NHL Draft - 6th Overall
Some might suggest Jason Bonsignore is a bigger miss, selected 4th overall a year prior. Neither player made a significant NHL impact, but the part that stings about the Steve Kelly selection, is that homegrown (Halkirk, AB), hard-nosed, longtime pro and eventual captain of the Phoenix Coyotes, Shane Doan, was taken with the very next pick. This draft was held in Edmonton, and the home crowd was literally shouting Doan's name, right up until they were disappointed.
Making matters worse, another local kid named Jarome Iginla went a couple picks later. Meanwhile Kelly only managed three points as an Oiler, and only 21 for his entire NHL career. The world was far less digital the last time the NHL Draft was hosted in Edmonton, and team management would have been highly dependent on the in-person reports they received from their while general manager Glen Sather obviously did a lot of great things over his time with the Oilers, this one has to count as one of his worst.
Xavier Bourgault: 2021 NHL Draft - 22nd Overall
Xavier Bourgault does appear to be a bust, or with the most generous of interpretations, a very late bloomer. But that is not what makes the pick a bad one. Any pick later in the first round is going to be something of a project. The complete (or mostly complete) players go in the top half, and then teams identify positive traits, and roll the dice on whether or not their pick will be able to close the gaps in their game with time and training.
No, the issue with selecting Bourgault at No. 22 is that the Oilers should never have been picking there in the first place. There was a rare opportunity to address an area or organizational need, with a selection who, while not necessarily a 100% guaranteed lock, was rated as one of, if not the top prospect at their position headed into Draft Day. That player, Jesper Wallstedt, was available at No. 20, where Edmonton was originally picking, and the Oilers instead chose to trade back two places, passing up the opportunity to chose the club's goaltender of the future.
As of this season, when Oilers management struggled to fix their back end, Wallstedt fully came into his own. While Wallstedt's Minnesota Wild fell short of the Stanley Cup as well, we can be certain that franchise has fewer holes to fill behind the blue line. The Oilers passing on Wallstedt is sure to haunt Oilers' fans dreams for a long time.
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