Today, as National Hockey League standings sit, the Edmonton Oilers are not in full control of their playoff fate. They've played 63 games, managing only 68 standings points. That's good enough to have them in third place in a very weak Pacific division, for the moment.
The Anaheim Ducks have a 5 point lead and a game in hand. The Vegas Golden Knights are ahead by 4 points. The Seattle Kraken trail by a single point, with two fewer games played. And the San Jose Sharks trail Edmonton by only 1, with 3 games in hand.
Head-to-head match ups will determine the post-season bracket
The Oilers have 19 games left to play. Two of those are against the Golden Knights. Without games in hand, the opportunity exists to catch the defending Pacific division champion, and two wins would put the tie-breaker (season series wins) in Edmonton's favor.
Anaheim will have to lose more games than the Oilers because there is only a single match up remaining. The Ducks have already clinched the season series.
The Kraken visit Edmonton on March 31st, and the outcome of that game will be significant. A win gives Edmonton the season series, as well as eliminating the game-in-hand advantage the Kraken currently hold.
Macklin Celebrini and the Sharks will play the Oilers two more times. Though they're currently on the outside looking in, San Jose could easily become the Oilers' biggest problem. It's crowded at the top, and a short run of success for the young Sharks could mean it's the Oilers sliding out of the playoff picture.
Other potential problems
As though the traffic jam near the top of the Pacific isn't problem enough, the Oilers still have to be wary of a LA Kings winning streak. Though they lost Kevin Fiala for their stretch drive, the addition of Artemi Panarin certainly limits the effect of that unfortunate injury.
With 70 standings points, the Utah Mammoth would be sitting ahead of the Oilers if they shared a division. Edmonton has two games to play against the former Coyotes, and those can't be nights the team relaxes either. Utah has 20 games to go versus the Oilers' 19.
All these calculations and computations don't factor in overtime and shootout losses. They assume the remaining schedules are equally difficult (they're not), and they ignore the fact that the Oilers have had a very challenging time stringing victories together this season.
Defense and goaltending need to improve, along with the penalty kill and 5-on-5 scoring, while the team remains healthy and doesn't backslide in any other area. A Stanley Cup contender shouldn't have to play do or die games down the stretch, but the Oilers will, and their results will show if the "contender" label truly applied this season.