As the Edmonton Oilers slog their way toward a season finish that hopefully sees them in the National Hockey League Playoffs, they should be thanking their lucky stars that they play in the Pacific Division. With the league basement dwelling Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks, the middling Seattle Kraken and LA Kings, and the young and/or imperfect San Jose Sharks, Anaheim Ducks, and Vegas Golden Knights, the less than stellar Oilers season means they have a high likelihood of at least one Playoff series.
But the road to a third straight Stanley Cup Finals runs through territory where Edmonton has seen far less success this season. The Colorado Avalanche look primed for a significant run, with enviable depth and few positions of weakness. The Minnesota Wild added an elite defender in Quinn Hughes, and are a tough opponent to beat on any night. And we've just had a glimpse of the Dallas Stars' scoring prowess this week. Can Edmonton really find victory in any of these potential Western Division Finals matchups?
Colorado Avalanche
Seasonal results versus the Avalanche were a 1-1 split. A 9-1 walloping in November, and a controversial 4-3 victory in March. Seasonal results to date suggest that Colorado is the better team. Colorado leads the league in Wins, and has the highest Goals per Game as well at 3.8. They have also been strong defensively, boasting the league's lowest Goals Against average, 2.42.
The Nathan Mackinnon ejection in their most recent matchup shows that you never know what could occur when the actual games are played, but anyone setting odds on a series between these two teams would have to favor the Avs as victors, and likely in less than seven games.
Minnesota Wild
The Oilers are 0-3 versus the Wild in 2025/26. They've lost a close game (0-1) and they've been blown out (5-2 in December and 7-3 in January). The Wild have historically been a team the Oilers struggled against, be it the early versions with their tight and unforgiving defensive focus, or today's more offensively talented version. The all-time head-to-head record sits at 39-56-4-10, and it will take some lucky bounces and superstar performances for the Oilers to defeat the Wild in the playoffs.
Today the Wild have 38 wins (6th in the league), are 10th in Goals For, and 4th in Goals Against. Quinn Hughes has the most assists by a defenseman, and Kiril Kaprisov is a Top Ten scoring forward. The Wild also have a very strong goaltending situation, while the Oilers decidedly do not.
Dallas Stars
Recent playoff history has Edmonton ahead of the Stars. They defeated them 4 games to 2 in 2023/24 and 4-1 in 2024/25. The overall history is less kind, and while the Stars have undoubtedly gotten better since their last match up, it's difficult to say the same for the Oilers.
Dallas didn't make any huge splashes at the deadline, but they didn't need to, as they've been near the top of the conference standings the entirety of the season. In spite of their second place divisional rank, I don't see them as the same level of Cup contender as the Avalanche and Wild, but they're certainly capable of beating the Oilers. The thing working in Edmonton's favour is the recent playoff defeats. Mentally, the Stars may not believe themselves capable of overcoming McDavid, Draisaitl and company, and that could be the crack that allows the Oilers to find a third consecutive series win.