The good news for the Edmonton Oilers is that both the Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights are having the same ups and downs they are. The top of the Pacific Division is a three-way game of leapfrog and with a little help from the out of town scoreboard, Edmonton could realistically be in control of their divisional fate.
But there's a team behind them that doesn't seem to be throwing in the towel, and the two head-to-head matchups between Edmonton and the San Jose Sharks are likely to be season defining.
The Sharks took a while to really find their pace, starting the season with a six game losing streak. But something clicked (that something is named Macklin Celebrini), and they've kept pace from that point onward. Only a late January slide, where they lost five in a row, has them out of the Pacific Division leadership.
More similar than you'd think
While the Oilers haven't had a similarly long stretch of losses in 2025/26, they haven't managed any huge winning streaks either. That means they never managed to put space between them and the cluster of bubble playoff teams that includes San Jose. A comparison of the two rosters suggests the lack of separation shouldn't surprise.
Both teams have superstars providing a large chunk of their offense. Celebrini has doggedly kept up in the scoring race with players that usually leave the rest of the league behind by Spring. Preventing goals against has been a challenge for both clubs, with the Sharks the 4th worst in the league and Edmonton only one position better.
Alex Nedeljkovic has a better save percentage than any of the netminders who have started for Edmonton this year. But the San Jose D corps doesn't have a producer like Evan Bouchard, nor the legitimate defensive stud that a healthy Mattias Ekholm represents. And when the teams have faced one another, the games have been decided by a single goal.
4 point games
The NHL scheduling folks apparently love late season drama. San Jose has three games in hand over Edmonton, with only 3 point gap in their standings. That makes the two upcoming matchups (March 17th and April 8th) vitally important to both clubs. For Edmonton, it could mean banishing the upstart Sharks to either a wildcard or a complete miss of the postseason, and for San Jose, two regulatoin wins could theoretically push them past Edmonton and right into the mix for a division win!
The Oilers' biggest advantage has to be their many win-or-go-home games over the past two seasons. Edmonton knows what it's like to face elimination, and more significantly, they started the season with the goal of returning to the Stanley Cup Final for a third straight year. While time will tell if they have the team to manage that feat, their experience should win out over a young but talented Sharks squad.