When Edmonton Oilers general manager pulled off the surprising move last summer, trading former first round pick and Memorial Cup champion Sam O'Reilly for NCAA star Isaac Howard, many thought he pulled off a heist.
It makes sense on the surface, even looking at each player's generous potential ceiling, Howard has the potential to become a top-six complimentary winger. While on the other hand, O'Reilly is expected to become a more defensively responsible bottom-six player, with the potential to be a third line pivot at his peak.
Now one year out, despite the public perception maybe shifting, the Oilers still look like winners in my books.
How each player has performed since the trade
Since the trade was made, the public perception of both players has shifted to some extent. O'Reilly was traded at the 2026 OHL trade deadline from the London Knights to the Kitchener Rangers, where he played a pivotal role in helping his new team capture the Memorial Cup, winning the tournament's MVP award and the OHL's most outstanding player of the year award. He wrapped up his Junior career a proven winner, capturing two Memorial Cups and three OHL championships.
On the other hand, Howard struggled to break into an NHL role under former head coach Kris Knoblauch. He played 29 NHL games scoring just two goals and three assists for five points in his rookie campaign. However, when playing with the Oilers' American Hockey League affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, Howard flashed the high end potential that fans had hoped to see scoring 50 points (24 goals, 26 assists) in 47 games.
Howard is two years older to the day and given their respective career timelines and development curves, it is expected that he can make the jump this upcoming season and play a potentially impactful top-nine role for the Oilers right away. While O'Reilly has more time and may need to adjust in the AHL for a year or more in order to get acclimated to the rigors of professional hockey.
This, along with their perceived potential ceilings makes the Oilers clear winners in this trade but it may end up that both teams come out with favourable outcomes. O'Reilly may be seen as more valuable because of his perceived 'safety' as a player who is more likely to hit his potential. Whereas Howard comes with more risk given the volatility of a player in his position.
Despite this, Howard has shown he can produce at a high level in a professional league while O'Reilly still has to break into the pro ranks just yet. Time will only tell whether the Oilers or Lightning came out on top but with the career trajectory of Howard up to this point, I would rather bet on him to make it than not.
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