The Edmonton Oilers have only played the Vegas Golden Knights in one playoff series - the 2023 Western Conference Semi-Finals losing 4 games to 2. However, they were only outscored by 3 goals at 22-19 for the Golden Knights in that playoff series. The two wins by the Oilers were convincing 4-1 and 5-1 scores. Since the inaugural win of 8-2 against Vegas on November 15, 2017, the record of the Oilers against the Golden Knights has been 17-15-3 with 1 shootout loss in 2023. The games between these two teams have been an average of 6.3 goals per game (EIS Hockey Datenbank).
In the 2025 regular season, Edmonton had a home record of 25-13-3 and an away record of 23-16-2 and Vegas had a home record of 29-9-3 and an away record of 21-13-7. In the 2025 post season, Adin Hill had a 2.83/0.880 GAA/Save percentage while Calvin Pickard had a 2.93/0.893 GAA/Save percentage. Adin Hill has not performed this year to the level he did in the 2023 playoffs with a 2.17/0.932 GAA/Save percentage. Thus, I think you can see a developing trend here - this series is historically evenly matched and historically will be a high scoring affair.
Special teams may make the difference in this series
The Oilers powerplay is finally back to a strength the team I used to at 38.5%, second only to the team they just eliminated – the 40% powerplay of the L.A. Kings. The Golden Knights have a 27.8% powerplay which is still quite good. However, the Golden Knights have a 76.9% penalty kill vs the 60% one of the Oilers. Although currently at 60%, the penalty kill has vastly improved despite what analytics tell you. I think the Oilers penalty kill will continue to improve in round 2 as there is more belief and confidence in the team to tighten up the execution of their penalty kill and provide support for their goaltenders. Special teams will make the difference in some games in this series and most bets will go in favour of the Oilers that have McDavid and Draisaitl and a 38.5% powerplay.
Another factor to consider is the contributions of the players in the lineup for both teams. The Oilers have 6 players with 5 or more points compared to 2 for Vegas. I think the Oilers have 4 lines that are contributing by scoring or hard forechecking. The Oilers forwards are blocking shots and skating back to help the defense. They are ALL very dialed into winning and playing their best in almost every shift since the 3rd period of game 3 of the LA series.
This will be a very different series from the 2023 Vegas-Edmonton playoff series
Both Vegas and Edmonton have key players health and contributing. Only 9 players remain on the Oilers from the 2023 playoffs while 13 remain on the Vegas team from those same playoffs. Thus, there might not be as much hatred on both sides. Hockey players have to have memories of a goldfish on the ice, so losses and hatreds do not get into their heads. Vegas plays with a very different style than the LA Kings. They forecheck harder, have depth on their lines to roll them out and they were in the top 3 teams for scoring off the rush in the regular season.
The Golden Knights have a bigger defensive core that prefers to stay defensive while the Oilers defense think offense most of the time and get pucks to McDavid and Draisaitl. I think the Oilers are a faster team with each line having > 20 mph skaters. Some, like McDavid and Janmark at get up to 25 mph. So, speed will be factor and Oilers will have to use that to their advantage to get by the bigger D-men of the Golden Knights. I think the Oilers D-men can contain Vegas’ top forwards: Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone. Bouchard has to be dialed in and not throw pucks in the middle of the ice and be the offensive threat that he was against the LA Kings. Bouchard had a very good playoffs in 2023 with 17 points in 12 games before being eliminated by Vegas. With 7 points in 6 games, Bouchard looks like he will have another excellent playoff season. Let’s keep the -/+ on the plus side Bouch!
“Ready to roll”
In pre-game interviews, the Oilers look relaxed and confident as game one approaches. McDavid said it before the start of the LA series...”we are ready to roll”! The captain has set the tone of the playoffs and has matured so much in the past two years. Losing can do that for you and it is very clear he does not want to lose again. Rest assured he will have the team “ready to roll” against the Vegas Golden Knights. It should be a fun series to watch, and I predict Oilers in 6 again.