Team Sweden is 2-1 in their Olympic preliminary bouts. They're a consistent medal threat, and the single loss on their record doesn't mean the world's other hockey powers can look past them in the elimination rounds. But the results of the three completed games do tell a story.
Sweden sits atop Group B. In each Olympic grouping there is generally a favorite (Sweden), a challenger (Finland), and two other teams that one might call secondary threats (or trap games). The importance of goal differential in these international tournaments is well known, and the Canadian squad, in allowing only 0.5 goals per game, left themselves without any concerns. Winning all your games is also a great approach, and Canada has done that as well.
Defence first
Mattias Ekholm is a defence first player. He's 35 years old, but while injuries slowed him in last year's Stanley Cup Final, he's returned to form in 2025-26. He's a player that also contributes offence, with six goals and 21 assists in 58 games, but rarely does that scoring come with the risk of opposing chances on his own net. He hasn't posted a plus/minus worse than -1 since 2014/15. You know what you're getting with Ekholm.
Sweden has allowed an average of three goals per game in Milan: Two versus Italy, four to Finland in their single loss, and then three against the Slovaks this morning. It's not as though they're out of contention, but they haven't done themselves any favors. A loss doesn't necessarily come down to any one player or play, but from a statistical point-of-view, some of this looks predictable.
Ekholm would have meant defensive depth
At the top of their lineup, the Swedes have Rasmus Dahlin and Victor Hedman, an ageless Erik Karlsson and the highly consistent Gustav Forsling. But things fall off at that. Rasmus Andersson was -38 last season on an unimpressive Calgary Flames Club. Hampus Lindholm is -8. Philip Broberg has contributed less offence than Ekholm as a St. Louis Blue and is -1. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has more points with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but is also -1.
Ekholm was one of the most notable Oilers Olympic snubs. He would have played limited minutes amongst the Swedish all-star defensive corps, but in terms of defensive play, there would have been very little drop off. It's very reasonable to think that his presence could have prevented, at minimum, a single goal against. That minor difference could have saved Sweden from the potential tie-break scenario in which they find themselves.
Of course Oiler fans would have enjoyed having another player to root for in the tournament, but the non-selection may haunt Sweden as they compete for gold. As things tighten up in the medal rounds and goals for are harder to come by, preventing pucks in your own net will be even more important.