Win now.
That surely has to have been the instruction given to Edmonton Oilers general manager Stan Bowman when he was hired to oversee the balance of the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl contention window. The future is tomorrow's problem and all will be not only forgiven, but justifiable, if the Oilers can find their way to a Stanley Cup Championship.
The team came close in his first season helming the good ship Oilers, but couldn't find their way past the Florida Panthers for the second post-season in a row. Now, as the National Hockey League trade deadline is rapidly approaching, the Oilers GM is wheeling and dealing, sending future players, in the form of draft picks, out the door for assistance in the here and now.
Win now
It's the right concept. There isn't a single Oiler fan on the globe who will complain in the second round of the 2029 draft when the Oilers can't select a player, so long as they can look up in the rafters at a championship banner. But there definitely is a cost.
This study, completed by St. Lawrence University, gives us an idea of the likelihood that a draft pick becomes a NHL player. The curve pretty clearly illustrates that there are diminishing returns as the rounds progress, and anything after the third round is as much determined by luck as it might be by scouting. The Oilers have sent away a number of selections in the next four drafts:
- 2026 1st round pick - Sent to Chicago Blackhawks; 4th round pick - Sent to Boston Bruins; 5th round pick - Sent to Nashville Predators
- 2027 1st round pick - Sent to San Jose Sharks; 3rd round pick - Sent to Nashville Predators; 4th round pick - sent to Utah Mammoth
- 2028 - 2nd round pick - Sent to Chicago Blackhawks
- 2029 - 2nd round pick - Sent to Pittsburgh Penguins
That's only looking forward. The team has sent previous picks away, as well as trading prospects like former first round selection Reid Schaefer. Again, it's the only acceptable approach for a team in the Oilers' position, so long as the returns justify the cost.
Help isn't coming from the Bakersfield Condors. The 2025-26 Oilers will succeed or fail in the post-season on the merits of Stan Bowman's decisions leading up to this week. Anything is possible once the playoffs arrive, but it sure would be nice to see some Friday magic happen to help the team get there.