My Second Round Playoff Predictions
The Oilers move onto the second round so here we go with second round predictions. I did a quick scan of the round one blog and it looks like I was fortunately right on all my predictions except for the Avs-Jets series as far as the winners - most of the margins I actually got wrong which is fine by me. For the Oilers this will be only the third time in their history they've met the Canucks in the playoffs, the first being 1986 in the first round when they beat the Canucks 3-0 (I guess the first round series were only five games back then) and the second round in 1992 when the Oilers beat the Canucks 4-2. Personally I think history will repeat itself, read on for more.....:)
Since Zach Human finished the first round tied with Valeri Nichushkin for most goals scored in the playoffs (seven) thus far it seemed only fair to give him some love with a picture this time around. Anyway, let's get to it.
Western Conference
Oilers-Canucks
Just like last time we save the best for first. :)
Although from an on-ice standpoint, it's better to draw the Predators in the second round, from a travel perspective it's much better for the Oilers to face the Canucks. Personally, I like to describe this as a clash of "The Canucks are good, but the Oilers are better."
For starters, the Oilers have the two biggest superstars in the NHL up front, not something they can match although JT Miller and Brock Boeser will need some attention defensively as they led the Canucks in points in the first round - against a much weaker opponent, mind you, the Oilers are a far superior team to the Predators.
Even in areas where the Canucks shine, like superstar Quinn Hughes at defense, the Oilers can counter with superstar Evan Bouchard on defence - who had a whopping 82 points in the regular season and more importantly had nine points in the five games against the Kings in the first round. Hughes only had five points in the six games they played against the Preds, something that can't be a good omen for them going into round two.
Also, they paid a huge price to get Elias Lindholm from the Flames and the best you can say in the early going is he's been....OK. He had 12 points in 26 games in the regular season after the trade and had three points in the six games against what I would dub the second-weakest playoff team they could draw (only Washington was a weaker opponent out of all the playoff teams), which also doesn't bode well for the Canucks.
The biggest blow to the Canucks, however, will be the fact that superstar goalie Thatcher Demko is injured right now, and while Casey Desmith did OK, he got injured as well and they were forced to press their third-stringer Arturs Silovs into action, but he responded to the challenge, putting up a .938 sv% and stingy 1.70 GAA in three games. However, again with a caveat that this is against a team that doesn't exactly have a lot of firepower up front in Nashville. Will Silovs be able to handle a steady diet of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, and Adam Henrique? Smart money says no, and each almost seems more terrifying coming over the boards than the last. That's a lot to ask of a rookie goaltender, and the Oilers will be a whole different animal than the Predators. If they play their game they'll make life very difficult for Silovs between the pipes and be able to take advantage of his inexperience.
Canucks fans and media will make a big deal out of the Canucks sweeping the regular season series against the Oilers, but honestly, personally I subscribe to the same philosophy as Darryl Sutter when it comes to looking at regular season production vs. playoff production:
Regular season doesn't mean screw-all to me
Who cares if the Canucks won the division or what they did against us in the regular season? Here's a quick mental exercise you can do to see how much it matters - without researching it, can you tell me who won the Stanley Cup in, say, 2012? Do you remember who won the division that year? How about in 2015? 2020? Chances are you can name the Cup winner but not the division winner, that you'd have to look up. If you're curious the Canucks won the division as well in 2012 but it was the third-place LA Kings who ended up winning the cup that year. In 2015 the Anaheim Ducks won the division but the Pittsburgh Penguins won the Cup. In 2020 the Vegas Golden Knights won the division but the Tampa Bay Lightning won the Cup. The Pens won off a wild card spot in 2015, while Tampa Bay finished second in their division before winning the Cup.
So you see, regular season success means nothing when it comes to playoffs. Even if you go by the President's Trophy - handed out to the NHL team with the best regular season record - only eight teams have won both trophies in the same season. Even the dynasty Oilers of the 80s only accomplished the feat once during their dynasty. Lots of meaningless stats will get thrown around about Oilers vs. Canucks in the regular season, but they ultimately mean nothing.
Then there's the fact that the Canucks have some franchise baggage to unload that the Oilers don't - the Canucks have been to three Cup finals in their franchise's lifetime - 1982 (lost to New York Islanders), 1994 (lost to the Rangers), and 2011 (lost to the Boston Bruins). The Oilers have no such baggage weighing down the pressure on the players. It's been awhile since the franchise has won a Cup, yes, but unlike the Canucks at least we've won some.
But the biggest reason I'm picking the Oilers to win this series? Playoff experience. This is the first time in three seasons the Canucks are making the playoffs, so most of the players don't have actual playoff experience. The right of passage for NHL teams to win the Cup is you must lose before you can win. It's practically an unwritten rule. The Canucks at this point I would classify as playoff contenders but not Cup contenders. I would say if they stay the course and don't make stupid personnel moves over the next couple of seasons they might be Cup contenders, but they aren't now.
Meanwhile, the Oilers have been through their losing, having lost twice in the first round (well technically a play-in series but I'm still counting it as a first round exit), and once each in the second and third rounds. They've learned lessons from those losses and have been looking like Cup contenders for some time now - not to mention what they've done to strengthen their team since that play-in loss to the Jets. They've made some fantastic trades and signed great free agents, while their drafting has also gotten much better and have been able to successfully integrate draft picks onto their roster as well.
In short, the Oilers are a team that's a finished product, while the Canucks are not. They'll need to make some improvements to the personnel on their team in the coming years, and if they learn lessons from the losses they're going to take over the next few seasons, in combination with those moves, they'll be a much better team than they are today. But today, it's their season to lose, not win. They need to suffer the pain of defeat before the triumph of victory, and that's why I'm picking the Oilers to win. Even if Thatcher Demko does come back from injury, IMO he'll only prolong the series, not tilt it in the Canucks' favor.
My winner - Oilers win 4-1
Stars-Avs
The Stars gutted out a great series win against Vegas in seven games, so that definitely says something about their team. Jake Oettinger is riding the hot hand right now with a 1.95 GAA and a .925 sv%, which bodes well for them, especially considering that he came out of this against a potent Vegas attack up front. Insane. No wonder Vegas wasn't able to solve him when he put up those kinds of numbers against them.
I'd compliment the Avs for their win over the Jets, but the Jets have become legendary playoff chokers ever since their window to win opened. Nonetheless, this was the only first round series I missed on largely because the Jets were healthier than the Avs so I thought between that and Connor Hellebuyck they would take the series. Nope, the depth of the Avs took over as injury replacements stepped up in a big way for them - also Hellebuyck choked too which was not something I saw coming. Gabriel Landeskog injured for the season?
No problem, here's a Casey Mittlestadt we traded for and am paying him with LTIR cash - who by the way finished with six points in five games in the first round. Goalie Pavel Francouz's career is over? Well, next up is Alexandar Georgiev, who......oh wait.......AG is a shadow of his former self, and it appears that his team succeeded in the first round in spite of him rather than because of him. Dallas's firepower up front is firing on all cylinders right now, so I doubt that Georgiev's struggles will produce the same result in this series. Top six winger Jonathan Drouin injured? No problem, here's a Valeri Nichuskin that we're going to elevate who will only be tied for most goals scored in the first round, no big deal or anything.....two more bottom six forwards injured? No problem, we'll trade for two of them at the trade deadline and give up very little for them. Have to give up Bowen Byram for Mittlestadt? Josh Manson is next up and we'll trade for Sean Walker at the deadline to take his old spot.
No matter who you cheer for, you have to be impressed with Avs GM Chris MacFarland's ability to plug holes in his lineup and cover for injuries.
In the first round the Avs also benefited from better puck over the Jets. They sport a 1.008 team PDO while the Jets were on the lesser end of the scale at .992 - for the record Vegas's team PDO was .988 which also explains in part why they lost to Dallas, not enough puck luck. The Avs won't have the fortune of a good tilt in this regard in the second round, though, as the Stars have a 1.012 PDO.
This one is a really tough call - and I hope I'm wrong because I'd rather the Oilers face Georgiev in the third round rather than Oettinger - but I'm going to have to call this one for the Stars. The Avs have more firepower up front but the Stars have the hot goalie and the Avs have the cold one.
My winner - Stars win 4-3
Eastern Conference
Panthers-Bruins
This is another tough one to call, because once again these are two strong teams going at it.
Both teams beat inferior teams in the first round as Tampa Bay and the Maple Laffs have both proven themselves to be nothing more than playoff contenders, not cup contenders.
The Panthers have a great edge in scoring, depth, and a slight edge in defensive play - however they are missing a key ingredient to go far in the playoffs - goaltending. Much like the Avs, the Panthers moved on to the next round largely due to weak competition. Last year Sergei Bobrovsky took this Panthers team on his back and provided the missing ingredient they needed, taking them all the way to the Cup finals. However, Bobrovsky has not been able to come up with a repeat performance this time around. He sports a weak .896 sv% and the same pedestrian 2.78 GAA that he sported in last year's playoffs. If those struggles continue, expect the Bruins' three leading scorers - David Pastrnak, the somehow ageless Brad Marchand, and Jake Debrusk - to have a field day.
On the other side, the Bruins have what I would argue is the best goalie tandem out of any of the playoff teams (and yes I include the Oilers in that lest you think I'm showing bias), with both Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark sporting identical .919 career playoff sv%s. Ullmark was only average in his one start against the Leafs, but we can probably chalk that up to a low sample size considering his playoff history. The crease right now is Swayman's to lose as he has the hot hand but Ullmark is a great 1A. It also helps that the Bruins have Pat Maroon, who appeared in four straight Cup finals winning three of them.
Like the Avs, I'm convinced the Panthers goaltending will hold them back in round two against a tougher opponent, so I'm calling this one for the Bruins.
My winner - Bruins win 4-3
Rangers-Hurricanes
Remember in my first round playoff predictions when I said the winner of the Canes-Islanders series will only go on to lose in the second round? Well, I hate to be anticlimactic but now we're there, and the Hurricanes were the ones that have won the right to lose in the second round.
We'll start with the silver lining for Carolina. Although the Rangers have on paper the most potent D corps in terms of scoring out of all the playoff teams, none of them produced in the first round against the Capitals, which is bizarre considering what a weak team - especially defensively - the Capitals were this season. Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, and K'Andre Miller produced a combined six points in their series against the Caps. Meanwhile on the 'Canes Brady Skjei had five points in the first round just by himself, not including what Brent Burns and Jacob Slavvin produced - which for the record was 10 points between the three of them. If Brett Pesce comes back from injury and they can once again sit Tony Deangelo (who produced literally no offence in the first round) that will help them out even more. The 'Canes depth is a bit better as well, seeing as how they only have two players on their roster who haven't produced points, while the Rangers have twice as much.
However, the Rangers have the edge in two key areas - defensive play and the biggest gap between the two, goaltending. The Rangers have a mere three players in the minus on their roster from the first round while the 'Canes have four. But the biggest edge is between the pipes. As you would expect, superstar Igor Shesterkin will be between the pipes until he gets injured for the Rangers. He was .921 against Washington in the first round with a 2.00 GAA to go with it. The obviously overcooked Freddie Anderson is at the other end for Carolina, and he's doing.....not so well. Against an Islanders team with a weak attack he finished with an .899 sv% and a 2.54 GAA.
dark. Next. Oilers Have Advantage In Every Area Vs Vancouver Canucks Second Round Series. Oilers Have Advantage In Every Area Vs Vancouver Canucks Second Round Series
He is not going to fare well against the much more lethal attack from the Rangers, which sports two of the NHL's best scorers in Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanajad, the latter of whom led the Rangers in scoring in the first round with 10 points in five games - and is tied with Leon Draisaitl for second in league playoff scoring thus far and only two points off of Connor Mcdavid. Unless Anderson can elevate his game the way he did in the regular season when he produced career bests in GAA and sv%, then the Hurricanes have no hope at all against the Rangers.
The Rangers have been the most fortunate team in the NHL in terms of their opponents. They started against the weakest playoff team in the league in Washington and dispatched them in a sweep. I predict this one will be almost as lopsided, but not quite. We'll see how they fare when they're up against a REAL team in round three.
My winner - Rangers win 4-1
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