Ryan McLeod is "Mini-McDavid" for Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl

Right before our eyes, the NHL game is slowing down for Ryan McLeod, and his recent emergence has been made possible by new coach Kris Knoblauch. It’s all arrows up for the bottom-six centreman, who has emerged as the best winger option for centre Leon Draisaitl after a slough of wingers failed to elevate the second forward line in the same way that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman managed, as they found chemistry and boost the Edmonton Oilers’ first line.

Coach Knoblauch deserves credit there, too. Not only has his method of keeping different line combinations together for extended periods of time (a way of helping them find chemistry and consistency) helped the team string together 11 wins in a row, but Knoblauch has also fought the temptation of loading up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at 5-on-5, and allowed the Nuge-McDavid-Hyman line to round into the league’s leading analytical line.

Let’s take a look at the numbers to sort out just how good the first line has been, and how much the addition of McLeod to Draisaitl’s line has elevated the big German’s results.

McLeod-Draisaitl has a history of success

I wrote in October, when McDavid was first injured and set to miss playing time, that McLeod was the best option to be elevated and play with Draisaitl. On October 22nd, this was my reasoning for playing McLeod with Draisaitl:

''Without McDavid, the duo of Draisaitl-McLeod posted 60.2 xGF%, 60.5 SF%, and even 63.6 HDCF% in their 38:09 minutes together over the span of the last 87 games. These are very impressive numbers and make sense when you consider that McLeod can act like a “McDavid-lite” in this situation.''

How are things going, almost two months and 31 games later? All stats are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.

In this season’s first 39 Oilers games, McLeod-Draisaitl have played 101:42 minutes at 5-on-5 together. They have posted a strong 59.7 xGF% and an outstanding actual goals share of 11-3 for 78.6 GF%. Those are extremely impressive numbers. Their PDO of 1.11 suggests this rate of GF% may not remain so high, but their high xGF% suggests this is a continuously dominant, outplaying top six duo. Even if the on-ice 94.83 SV% comes down, there’s plenty of room to keep outscoring the competition, and their 16.18 on-ice SH% is nothing unreasonably high.

No doubt, McLeod’s skillset is impressing as a top six winger. He’s historically been puck-dominant along the boards, but he’s now finding ways to get dangerous pucks into slot, and also getting into the slot to cash in himself.

It won’t hurt that McLeod has a history of strong shutdown ability against elite lines, too. I wrote in October:

“@Woodguy55 outlined this best when he showed that Jack Eichel posted only 31.8 xGF% versus McLeod in their 15-minute TOI against each other.”

This is a very welcome ability to have on your second top six line, and it appears McLeod is emerging right before our eyes.

McLeod Helps Oilers' Top Lines Rank #1-2 in NHL by xGF/60

McLeod’s skating is reminiscent of McDavid on the ice, and helps him win puck races or skate out of battles with the puck before even having to engage with defenders. This kind of speed is a huge asset when high-profile threats such as Draisaitl or McDavid are on the ice. This was on full display when McLeod was able to walk out from behind the net with time to line up a top-shelf snipe against the Maple Leafs on Tuesday night:

What’s more is that we saw him expressing the poise to make not only that game-winning goal happen, but earlier in the game he set up Derek Ryan from behind the net with a beautiful feed that demonstrates his soft hands as well:

McLeod’s poise in the game versus Toronto was more like what we see from Evan Bouchard on a per-game basis, and is an excellent asset when you have the speed to buy time and space, and make plays. McLeod is the right kind of player for the top six right now. And that’s huge for the Oilers when they have a can’t miss top line that they want to keep together.

Where does McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele rank, and how about the top line?

As a line, McLeod-Draisaitl-Warren Foegele pairs a top five NHL centre in Draisaitl with two speedy forwards who can win races and cycle the puck with a high degree of success. By eye, this checks out, and the production is there too. The line has played 88:13 minutes 5-on-5 together, posting 10GF, 3GA, for an excellent 76.92GF%. with an impressive 60.08 GF%, they should remain a well-outscoring top six line together; their on-ice 16.39 SH% is probably a bit high overall, as is their 93.48 on-ice SV%, for a 1.099 PDO that will come down eventually.

The McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele line ranks second in the NHL by expected goals rate, or xGF/60, for lines at 5v5 with 80 minutes TOI, as per MoneyPuck, second only to the Oilers’ top line.

Let them play!

These really impressive results suggest this is the second dominant top six line the Oilers have been searching desperately for all season.

As for the top line, they have played 261:30 minutes 5v5 together, and posted 23GF – 11GA and 67.65 GF% together this year. This is on an unbelievable expected goals share of 72.28 xGF%. Not only is this extremely dominant and good enough to carry a team on their backs, but it ranks them as the #1 line in the NHL this season, as per MoneyPuck.

These are two lines to keep together, unless the wheels fall off or you trade for a top six winger, which might not be necessary. The team may be able to focus on upgrading at other positions with their limited assets and cap available.