Ryan McLeod is "Mini-McDavid" for Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl

Right before our eyes, the NHL game is slowing down for Ryan McLeod, and his recent emergence has been made possible by new coach Kris Knoblauch. It’s all arrows up for the bottom-six centreman, who has emerged as the best winger option for centre Leon Draisaitl after a slough of wingers failed to elevate the second forward line in the same way that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman managed, as they found chemistry and boost the Edmonton Oilers’ first line.

Coach Knoblauch deserves credit there, too. Not only has his method of keeping different line combinations together for extended periods of time (a way of helping them find chemistry and consistency) helped the team string together 11 wins in a row, but Knoblauch has also fought the temptation of loading up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at 5-on-5, and allowed the Nuge-McDavid-Hyman line to round into the league’s leading analytical line.

Let’s take a look at the numbers to sort out just how good the first line has been, and how much the addition of McLeod to Draisaitl’s line has elevated the big German’s results.

McLeod-Draisaitl has a history of success

I wrote in October, when McDavid was first injured and set to miss playing time, that McLeod was the best option to be elevated and play with Draisaitl. On October 22nd, this was my reasoning for playing McLeod with Draisaitl:

''Without McDavid, the duo of Draisaitl-McLeod posted 60.2 xGF%, 60.5 SF%, and even 63.6 HDCF% in their 38:09 minutes together over the span of the last 87 games. These are very impressive numbers and make sense when you consider that McLeod can act like a “McDavid-lite” in this situation.''

How are things going, almost two months and 31 games later? All stats are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.

In this season’s first 39 Oilers games, McLeod-Draisaitl have played 101:42 minutes at 5-on-5 together. They have posted a strong 59.7 xGF% and an outstanding actual goals share of 11-3 for 78.6 GF%. Those are extremely impressive numbers. Their PDO of 1.11 suggests this rate of GF% may not remain so high, but their high xGF% suggests this is a continuously dominant, outplaying top six duo. Even if the on-ice 94.83 SV% comes down, there’s plenty of room to keep outscoring the competition, and their 16.18 on-ice SH% is nothing unreasonably high.

No doubt, McLeod’s skillset is impressing as a top six winger. He’s historically been puck-dominant along the boards, but he’s now finding ways to get dangerous pucks into slot, and also getting into the slot to cash in himself.

It won’t hurt that McLeod has a history of strong shutdown ability against elite lines, too. I wrote in October:

“@Woodguy55 outlined this best when he showed that Jack Eichel posted only 31.8 xGF% versus McLeod in their 15-minute TOI against each other.”

This is a very welcome ability to have on your second top six line, and it appears McLeod is emerging right before our eyes.

The bottom six needs help without McLeod

I will leave Evander Kane and Foegele out of this discussion, as one of them will currently have to play in the top six at any time, and they have spent significant top six time this season.

That leaves six bottom six player options for this analysis: Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan, Adam Erne, James Hamblin, Dylan Holloway, and Sam Gagner. They have a total of 13 goals on shots in 188 man games played. In total, that’s good for one goal every three games from the group of six.

If you’re a contender that’s what you expect from just your bottom line alone.

That’s not good enough for a contender, and it’s the players’ defensive astuteness that has kept them from sinking the ship in the last 27 games under coach Knoblauch. I wrote last week that acquiring a solid analytical player or a finisher in the vein of Klim Kostin’s abilities would be beneficial for relatively cheap at the deadline. But if McLeod is to play significant top six time, a 3C addition becomes necessary.

Can Holloway succeed in this role? I think you’ll see an improved performance from Holloway with some more NHL experience under his belt and the trust and guidance of an excellent coach in Knoblauch. I would also argue the answer to that suggestion strongly depends on who plays on his flanks.

Holloway will require at least one strong skater and cycler/forechecker on his line, someone like Foegele. The rumored acquisition of Corey Perry may also serve well here, either making Foegele available for the third line, or bringing a veteran and defensive presence to Holloway’s flank.

Otherwise, targets at the deadline will include veteran centermen such as Adam Henrique, Boone Jenner, and Nic Dowd. There are younger, less proven options who haven’t earned a fixed role in the same way as Holloway, that could be moved at the deadline.

Knoblauch deserves credit

Within his first 27 games as head coach, Knoblauch has found a steady five man unit including both the first forward and defence lines, and kept them together to form the top two analytical lines in the NHL. He even referenced expected goals in this recent interview below, proof that he is using the tools available to him to help win games (see timestamp 5:10 in the interview):

Knoblauch has also found a solution to the second line combination, while still finding opportune times during games to roll out McDavid and Draisaitl together, including throwing out the speedy McLeod with McDavid and Draisaitl to score a clutch game-clinching goal against Toronto.

Consistent, Constant improvement, and Collected are the 3 C’s that describe Knoblauch so far in his tenure. I hope he continues to find as the 2023-24 season rolls on.

Thanks for reading. Follow me on Twitter @TheLineBlender for more analytics-fueled articles. Talk to you on X!

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