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Ryan McLeod is "Mini-McDavid" for Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl

The emergence of Ryan McLeod as a top-six winger gives the Edmonton Oilers the best two 'expected goals' producing lines in the NHL.

By Mark MacCrimmon |
Toronto Maple Leafs v Edmonton Oilers
Toronto Maple Leafs v Edmonton Oilers / Lawrence Scott/GettyImages
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In this article:

  1. McLeod-Draisaitl has a history of success
  2. McLeod Helps Oilers' Top Lines Rank #1-2 in NHL by xGF/60
  3. Where does McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele rank, and how about the top line?
  4. Let them play!
  5. The bottom six needs help without McLeod
  6. Knoblauch deserves credit
  7. Recent posts

Right before our eyes, the NHL game is slowing down for Ryan McLeod, and his recent emergence has been made possible by new coach Kris Knoblauch. It’s all arrows up for the bottom-six centreman, who has emerged as the best winger option for centre Leon Draisaitl after a slough of wingers failed to elevate the second forward line in the same way that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman managed, as they found chemistry and boost the Edmonton Oilers’ first line.

Coach Knoblauch deserves credit there, too. Not only has his method of keeping different line combinations together for extended periods of time (a way of helping them find chemistry and consistency) helped the team string together 11 wins in a row, but Knoblauch has also fought the temptation of loading up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at 5-on-5, and allowed the Nuge-McDavid-Hyman line to round into the league’s leading analytical line.

Let’s take a look at the numbers to sort out just how good the first line has been, and how much the addition of McLeod to Draisaitl’s line has elevated the big German’s results.

McLeod-Draisaitl has a history of success

I wrote in October, when McDavid was first injured and set to miss playing time, that McLeod was the best option to be elevated and play with Draisaitl. On October 22nd, this was my reasoning for playing McLeod with Draisaitl:

''Without McDavid, the duo of Draisaitl-McLeod posted 60.2 xGF%, 60.5 SF%, and even 63.6 HDCF% in their 38:09 minutes together over the span of the last 87 games. These are very impressive numbers and make sense when you consider that McLeod can act like a “McDavid-lite” in this situation.''
@TheLineBlender

How are things going, almost two months and 31 games later? All stats are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.

In this season’s first 39 Oilers games, McLeod-Draisaitl have played 101:42 minutes at 5-on-5 together. They have posted a strong 59.7 xGF% and an outstanding actual goals share of 11-3 for 78.6 GF%. Those are extremely impressive numbers. Their PDO of 1.11 suggests this rate of GF% may not remain so high, but their high xGF% suggests this is a continuously dominant, outplaying top six duo. Even if the on-ice 94.83 SV% comes down, there’s plenty of room to keep outscoring the competition, and their 16.18 on-ice SH% is nothing unreasonably high.

No doubt, McLeod’s skillset is impressing as a top six winger. He’s historically been puck-dominant along the boards, but he’s now finding ways to get dangerous pucks into slot, and also getting into the slot to cash in himself.

It won’t hurt that McLeod has a history of strong shutdown ability against elite lines, too. I wrote in October:

“@Woodguy55 outlined this best when he showed that Jack Eichel posted only 31.8 xGF% versus McLeod in their 15-minute TOI against each other.”
@TheLineBlender

This is a very welcome ability to have on your second top six line, and it appears McLeod is emerging right before our eyes.

McLeod Helps Oilers' Top Lines Rank #1-2 in NHL by xGF/60

McLeod’s skating is reminiscent of McDavid on the ice, and helps him win puck races or skate out of battles with the puck before even having to engage with defenders. This kind of speed is a huge asset when high-profile threats such as Draisaitl or McDavid are on the ice. This was on full display when McLeod was able to walk out from behind the net with time to line up a top-shelf snipe against the Maple Leafs on Tuesday night:

What’s more is that we saw him expressing the poise to make not only that game-winning goal happen, but earlier in the game he set up Derek Ryan from behind the net with a beautiful feed that demonstrates his soft hands as well:

McLeod’s poise in the game versus Toronto was more like what we see from Evan Bouchard on a per-game basis, and is an excellent asset when you have the speed to buy time and space, and make plays. McLeod is the right kind of player for the top six right now. And that’s huge for the Oilers when they have a can’t miss top line that they want to keep together.

Where does McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele rank, and how about the top line?

As a line, McLeod-Draisaitl-Warren Foegele pairs a top five NHL centre in Draisaitl with two speedy forwards who can win races and cycle the puck with a high degree of success. By eye, this checks out, and the production is there too. The line has played 88:13 minutes 5-on-5 together, posting 10GF, 3GA, for an excellent 76.92GF%. with an impressive 60.08 GF%, they should remain a well-outscoring top six line together; their on-ice 16.39 SH% is probably a bit high overall, as is their 93.48 on-ice SV%, for a 1.099 PDO that will come down eventually.

The McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele line ranks second in the NHL by expected goals rate, or xGF/60, for lines at 5v5 with 80 minutes TOI, as per MoneyPuck, second only to the Oilers’ top line.

Let them play!

These really impressive results suggest this is the second dominant top six line the Oilers have been searching desperately for all season.

As for the top line, they have played 261:30 minutes 5v5 together, and posted 23GF – 11GA and 67.65 GF% together this year. This is on an unbelievable expected goals share of 72.28 xGF%. Not only is this extremely dominant and good enough to carry a team on their backs, but it ranks them as the #1 line in the NHL this season, as per MoneyPuck.

These are two lines to keep together, unless the wheels fall off or you trade for a top six winger, which might not be necessary. The team may be able to focus on upgrading at other positions with their limited assets and cap available.

The bottom six needs help without McLeod

I will leave Evander Kane and Foegele out of this discussion, as one of them will currently have to play in the top six at any time, and they have spent significant top six time this season.

That leaves six bottom six player options for this analysis: Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan, Adam Erne, James Hamblin, Dylan Holloway, and Sam Gagner. They have a total of 13 goals on shots in 188 man games played. In total, that’s good for one goal every three games from the group of six.

If you’re a contender that’s what you expect from just your bottom line alone.

That’s not good enough for a contender, and it’s the players’ defensive astuteness that has kept them from sinking the ship in the last 27 games under coach Knoblauch. I wrote last week that acquiring a solid analytical player or a finisher in the vein of Klim Kostin’s abilities would be beneficial for relatively cheap at the deadline. But if McLeod is to play significant top six time, a 3C addition becomes necessary.

Can Holloway succeed in this role? I think you’ll see an improved performance from Holloway with some more NHL experience under his belt and the trust and guidance of an excellent coach in Knoblauch. I would also argue the answer to that suggestion strongly depends on who plays on his flanks.

Holloway will require at least one strong skater and cycler/forechecker on his line, someone like Foegele. The rumored acquisition of Corey Perry may also serve well here, either making Foegele available for the third line, or bringing a veteran and defensive presence to Holloway’s flank.

Otherwise, targets at the deadline will include veteran centermen such as Adam Henrique, Boone Jenner, and Nic Dowd. There are younger, less proven options who haven’t earned a fixed role in the same way as Holloway, that could be moved at the deadline.

Knoblauch deserves credit

Within his first 27 games as head coach, Knoblauch has found a steady five man unit including both the first forward and defence lines, and kept them together to form the top two analytical lines in the NHL. He even referenced expected goals in this recent interview below, proof that he is using the tools available to him to help win games (see timestamp 5:10 in the interview):

Knoblauch has also found a solution to the second line combination, while still finding opportune times during games to roll out McDavid and Draisaitl together, including throwing out the speedy McLeod with McDavid and Draisaitl to score a clutch game-clinching goal against Toronto.

Next. Is a trade for the Oilers still necessary with the way they've been playing lately?. Is a trade for the Oilers still necessary with the way they've been playing lately?. dark

Consistent, Constant improvement, and Collected are the 3 C’s that describe Knoblauch so far in his tenure. I hope he continues to find as the 2023-24 season rolls on.

Thanks for reading. Follow me on Twitter @TheLineBlender for more analytics-fueled articles. Talk to you on X!

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