Rumor: Lindholm of interest to the Oilers but is he the answer to Draisaitl's needs?

As of late, both Bob Stauffer and Craig MacTavish have speculated on Oilers NOW about the Edmonton Oilers having possible interest in the Calgary Flames’ Elias Lindholm.

Is this a good idea? And is it the right time to buy? The answer to one of these questions is very clear. For the other, we will make our best analytically-informed decision.

Stats are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com, MoneyPuck.com, and PuckIQ.com.

NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY AS LOW AS EVER ON LINDHOLM

In the last 24 games, Lindholm has scored just one goal in all situations. He also has 13 assists, good for a points pace of 44 points per 82 games played, which is not half bad for a rock-bottom scoring slump.

Will this scoring rate last? History tells us no, he will certainly improve his goal scoring.

In that 24 game span, Lindholm’s 0 SH% on 38 shots is almost certain to regress back up to near his six-season average of around 10% shooting.  His 41.2 GF% this year is down from a three-season average of 60.76%. His 0.988 PDO is a career low, down from an average 1.022. These are being dragged down by an 89.5 on-ice SV% on a poorly performing Flames team.

By expected stats, Lindholm’s 42.0 xGF% is also excessively below his six-season average of 54.0 xGF%, and should regress as well. He has scored 6.2 goals less than expected, which won’t sustain forever.

Lastly, Lindholm’s 2023-24 shooting percentage of 4.94 SH% is stunningly lower than his impressive six-year average of 12.13%.

All of these markers point directly to Lindholm playing, and scoring, unsustainably below his standard. He will regress upwards in the future, likely on whatever team he lands with prior to this year’s trade deadline.

Lindholm is a good buy-low (read: buy very low) candidate.

Other intriguing trends from him: his shooting talent above average steadily increased year-over-year for the last five seasons straight, and in the last 1.5 seasons he has scored a cumulative 14.3 goals below expected by his shooting talent, after scoring a cumulative 42.5 goals above expected the previous four seasons. This drop coincides with the departures of Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, the primary playmakers for Lindholm. He seems to have more to give.

But how well does he normally play and produce, and is he a good fit for the Oilers’ second line?

WOULD LINDHOLM HELP ELEVATE DRAISAITL'S LINE?

Let’s take a look at the recently-spectacular Ryan McLeod-Draisaitl-Warren Foegele line, which ranked second in the NHL by GF/60, and performed like a top line on an NHL roster:

When paired with speedy forecheckers and capable puck transitioners McLeod and Foegele, the line was dominant across the board, in a very small sample. The only area they suffered in was faceoffs. On the other hand, Draisaitl-Foegele was great but not excellent across the board. If the Oilers acquire a top six player, they will seek to demote McLeod to 3C. Lindholm would play with Draisaitl-Foegele. Lindholm is not the transitional menace that McLeod is, but his passing and shooting skills as a centreman are a nice contrast to the skill set of Foegele, and Lindholm could definitely benefit and elevate the Draisaitl-Foegele duo.

As for the level of competition faced by this line, Draisaitl this year has spent roughly 60% less time against elites than Lindholm has. I would love to see what Foegele-Lindholm-Draisaitl could do against that sort of competition, and Draisaitl could sorely use a 30 goal, 70 point player on his line. Draisaitl and Foegele are the types of playdrivers that Lindholm might thrive with.

All in all, Draisaitl could use some more support on his line, and Lindholm looks like a quality second line right-shot centre. Is he worth the rumored $9M extension from years past? No. But he certainly looks to be worth as much as any of the Oilers’ wingers, who are all making $5-5.5M or less.

Thanks for reading. Follow me on X @TheLineBlender for more analytics articles. See you next time.

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