Rumor: Lindholm of interest to the Oilers but is he the answer to Draisaitl's needs?

HOW WOULD LINDHOLM RANK AS AN OILER?

The last three seasons, Lindholm has scored at a pace of 31G-41A-72P over 82 games. This would’ve ranked third, third, and fifth on the Oilers, making him a high-end producer on this team.

Among all NHL players who have played 800 minutes 5v5 the last three full seasons, Lindholm ranks 26th by GF% (60.76 GF%), and 43rd by xGF% (56.09 xGF%). On the Oilers his GF% would rank first among the top six forwards, and by xGF% he would rank second to Connor McDavid. His six-year average SH% of 12.13% (dragged down by the first year of the sample) would rank him fourth among the Oilers’ top six.

These stats suggests he is a quality player at outperforming his competition. But exactly how much competition has he faced over the years?

LINDHOLM’S TEAMMATES AND COMPETITION

According to PuckIQ, Lindholm has faced the second highest competition of any Flames forward this season, facing ~25% more elites than low-end competition. That is a whopping ~40% more time vs elites than his average the last three seasons, during which time he also played the hardest average competition of any Flame.

Now, how did the trio of Lindholm, Gaudreau, and Tkachuk do with and without each other in their last three seasons together?

It's clear how elite the Tkachuk-Lindholm-Gaudreau line was, as a line where Lindholm played centre but did not take all of the transitional duties. Most notably, the shooting and faceoff percentages of the line were high-end with Lindholm, and suffered without him. The Tkachuk-Gaudreau combination without Lindholm was a much smaller sample size of only 172 minutes 5v5, and were excellent but should be taken with a grain of salt. Lindholm also fared well without either of the other two players.

Would this be a fit on Leon’s line?

WOULD LINDHOLM HELP ELEVATE DRAISAITL'S LINE?

Let’s take a look at the recently-spectacular Ryan McLeod-Draisaitl-Warren Foegele line, which ranked second in the NHL by GF/60, and performed like a top line on an NHL roster:

When paired with speedy forecheckers and capable puck transitioners McLeod and Foegele, the line was dominant across the board, in a very small sample. The only area they suffered in was faceoffs. On the other hand, Draisaitl-Foegele was great but not excellent across the board. If the Oilers acquire a top six player, they will seek to demote McLeod to 3C. Lindholm would play with Draisaitl-Foegele. Lindholm is not the transitional menace that McLeod is, but his passing and shooting skills as a centreman are a nice contrast to the skill set of Foegele, and Lindholm could definitely benefit and elevate the Draisaitl-Foegele duo.

As for the level of competition faced by this line, Draisaitl this year has spent roughly 60% less time against elites than Lindholm has. I would love to see what Foegele-Lindholm-Draisaitl could do against that sort of competition, and Draisaitl could sorely use a 30 goal, 70 point player on his line. Draisaitl and Foegele are the types of playdrivers that Lindholm might thrive with.

All in all, Draisaitl could use some more support on his line, and Lindholm looks like a quality second line right-shot centre. Is he worth the rumored $9M extension from years past? No. But he certainly looks to be worth as much as any of the Oilers’ wingers, who are all making $5-5.5M or less.

Thanks for reading. Follow me on X @TheLineBlender for more analytics articles. See you next time.

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