Revisiting the 2023 NHL entry draft - how did the Oilers make out?
The second last blog in the series is now here. Just FYI, only six players period from this draft have played NHL games so far. Most of the players have yet to play games in the AHL, never mind the NHL. A few may have played in the European pros but that's not necessarily uncommon for picks from overseas - many of them do their rawest work in the European pro leagues before coming across the ocean to determine how to translate their game to the NHL in the minors. This would also mark Ken Holland's last draft as GM of the Oilers, although it's safe to assume that the 2024 draft would've been heavily influenced by him anyway seeing as how he declined another contract only days before the draft and after the playoff run.
First round - no pick, sent to Nashville as part of the Mattias Ekholm trade.
Second round - Beau Akey, 56th overall
Everyone knows that Ken Holland loves his blueliners, and that shows in his drafting records. This righty in Beau Akey is now a part of that tradition. He was drafted after a junior career year in which he put up 47 points in 66 games for the Barrie Colts of the OHL, which includes 36 assists. He followed that up with 2-3-5 in 13 playoff games for the Colts, not too shabby. At the time of this writing, Akey is currently turning some heads in the Young Stars tournament in Penticton. He followed that up with an unfortunate major injury in his next junior season but still managed to put up nine points in 14 games for the Colts (none in the playoffs as it appears the Colts didn't make the OHL playoffs last season). We've already discovered a weakness in Akey - his defensive play. Two out of three seasons in the OHL so far he's finished with a -3 and a -4, although he followed that up last season with a +4 so that may be changing.
While Akey is not a surefire NHLer, at this early juncture it sure looks like he's a solid pick, albeit one that will most definitely be perhaps a little bit of a project as he needs to prove he can 1) Stay healthy this season 2) Dominate the OHL both offensively and defensively and 3) Get bigger. He's shown flashes of being able to play offence or defence in different seasons, but now he has to put both sides of the game together into one complete season.
What I would expect going forward is for Akey to spend one last season in junior, and if the Colts aren't in the playoffs again there might be a blockbuster trade in the works to a playoff OHL team so he can help that team win an OHL championship and maybe even the Memorial Cup. Akey will turn 20 midway through next season so one way or another his time in junior is over as 20 is the age limit for players in junior. Per the terms of the NHL/CHL agreement, Akey has to either play in the NHL this season or go back to junior. Unless you're Connor McDavid or Connor Bedard, it's usually the latter.
Unless Akey completely implodes this upcoming season, I would expect him to join the Condors two seasons from now.
Trending up or down? Up, definitely
Round three - no pick, traded away to Arizona along with RD Michael Kesselring in exchange for LD Cam Dineen and rental C Nick Bjugstad. Worth noting that this trade has worked out well for Kesselring himself as he's slated to be a regular bottom pairing d-man for the Utah hockey club this upcoming season. He was buried far too down the depth chart here to be given that opportunity with the Oilers.
Round four - no pick, traded away to Philadelphia for rental bottom six forward Derick Brassard
Round five - no pick, traded away to the NY Rangers in exchange for the rights to prospect Jayden Grubbe. Grubbe has since started his pro career in Bakersfield in a solid if unspectacular fashion.
Round six - Nathaniel Day, 184th overall
Day is a goalie in the mold of a "throw something against the dartboard and see what sticks" mold.
At the same age as Akey, Day is 19 years old and playing for the Flint Firebirds of the OHL, where he has yet to put up a save percentage above .900 or a GAA below 3.5. See for yourself. Oh, it's not all bad with Day, though - word on the street is, like Akey, he started for the Oilers prospects vs. the Flames prospects in Penticton and was one of the only bright spots in a 2-0 loss.
Still, however, that's only one game, and it's hard to say one way or the other based on one game. It could be a sign, however, that Day has more confidence and will take a step forward with Flint this upcoming season, but that's nothing more than an educated guess at this point. When evaluating prospects you have to take into account their entire body of work to this point - take a look at Stuart Skinner's junior numbers to compare. When looking at it that way, the signs are not encouraging to this point. Day has no contract with the organization at this point in time but remains on the Oilers reserve list.
Fun fact - Puckpedia has at long last started to imitate a feature that up until now it has never had and one that CapFriendly always had until it was taken down after being bought out by the Washington Capitals - it's started listing literally just recently the deadline for signing players on the reserve list. Thus, I can now report to you that we have until June 1, 2025, to sign Day to a contract before he walks from the organization as a prospect free agent.
What I would expect from Day is that he will go back to Flint for one last junior season - and it will be a make or break, critical to his future type season. If he can move the dial and show some potential in his final season in junior, I suspect the Oilers will sign him to a contract - it may not be a standard NHL two way contract, perhaps only an AHL two way contract, but if he finishes his junior career with a bang, then I suspect one way or another he will stay in the organization, even if he has to man the nets for the Komets to start two seasons from now.
Trending up or down? Down, for the moment. If he can carryover his performance in the Young Stars tournament to his final season of junior, then that could change quickly.
Round seven - Matt Copponi, 216th overall
Copponi is an interesting case. He's taken by far the most unorthodox developmental path I've ever seen, starting with a graduation in 2019-20 from a midget AAA team to a US High School prep team - and the transition was quite a success as not only did Copponi equal his numbers but beat them by eight points while playing only one more game during the transition - and managing to crack the 20-goal mark in the process.
He then moved on to the US College System, where he put up nine points (25 games), then 29 points (37 games), then managed to crack the PPG mark as he put up 32 points in 30 games. It's also worth noting as well that he's already grasped good defensive play as he has put up 0, +8, and +4 so far in his US College career. He has a nasty streak as well, as his PIMs have gone from 14 to 30 to 48 last season, all for Merrimack College. I suspect what the Oilers will do is let him play one last season for Merrimack College and then bring him into the Condors two seasons from now.
His scouting report indicates that he is a bit of a project which explains the seventh round pick, but for a seventh round pick, this certainly seems like a good bet. I'm impressed as it's looking more and more like the Oilers might have a diamond in the rough here and a legit power forward in the Mark Messier fold - not that I'm comparing him exactly to Messier but he's that player type.
Trending up or down? Up right now. I can't wait to see what he does in one more year of college and in transitioning to the pro ranks after that. Unless of course he completely implodes between now and then. Copponi has no contract yet but is on the reserve list and the Oilers have until Aug, 15, 2025, to sign him.
Overall verdict
This draft may be remembered more for the picks that were given up in trade than for the picks that were made. After all, the Oilers only made three selections out of seven and dealt away four picks, three of which were to help the present (trading for Mattias Ekholm, Derick Brassard, and Nick Bjugstad), while one helps the future (replenishing the prospect pool with Jayden Grubbe). The Oilers were in win-now mode at this point so drafting took more of a backseat to improving the team now.
It kind of sucks that the Oilers gave away Kesselring now that they've lost Philip Broberg to an RFA offer sheet, he would've been a good candidate for his roster spot. But, I don't blame Holland for this - after all, at the time the right side of the D corps was awfully crowded, and Kesselring was buried on the depth chart underneath many other players, including Vincent Desharnais who at the time had just recently become an NHL regular. At the time he was very much expendable. We had no way of knowing that we would lose Desharnais to free agency, Broberg to an offer sheet, and Cody Ceci to a bad second half of the season and subsequent cap casualty trade.
Mind you if Kesselring was still in the organization, he'd still have to contend with Ty Emberson, Travis Dermott, and Josh Brown - that's lesser competition but I'm still not sure he'd have a surefire roster spot on this team. Nonetheless, you have to admire how Arizona made out in this trade - they brought Bjugstad back after those playoffs in free agency, and then with Kesselring's emergence they got the better of us in this trade. Dineen is showing right now that best case scenario he's a late bloomer, and while the Oilers plugged the hole at forward in trade at the deadline with Adam Henrique, it's one of those things where if we had access to the future we might've held onto Kesselring instead of trading him.
Grubbe is being used to plug holes on the farm team, and while he still needs work, he might be a future bottom six forward.
As far as the picks themselves, it's not too shabby. Two players trending up and only one trending down is not too bad for only three picks in the draft, especially when two of those picks were at the bottom of the order.
Bonus material
Oilers make three additions to their player development ranks. My colleague Paul has already explained this pretty well so I'm not going to go too far into it. One interesting tidbit - Tobias Salmelainen is the brother of ex-Oiler Tony Salmelainen. Salmelainen didn't have much of an NHL career and was more valuable to the Oilers as a trade chip, as he would be traded away to Chicago at the 2006 trade deadline, helping to bring over blueliner Jaroslav Spacek who would be a key depth defender in the Oilers Cinderella run to the Cup finals that year. Oh, what might've been if Dwayne Roloson hadn't gotten injured...
Markus Niemelainen signs in Germany. Previously a third round pick in 2016, Niemelainen went on to play 43 NHL games for the Oilers over two seasons and two extended callups. He didn't impress enough to stay and spent the last year of his contract buried in Bakersfield making an NHL paycheque as he was on a one way contract. Due to the fact he hadn't played 80 games, Niemelainen was only a Group Six free agent rather than a full fledged Restricted Free Agent. Can't say I blame the Oilers for not re-signing him considering how many other guys have passed him on the depth chart.
Oilers sign Travis Dermott to a PTO. Dermott is a natural left side blueliner but can play the right side as well. He played two years in junior with McDavid in Erie so there's a McDavid connection there. Dermott had an off year last season with the Arizona Coyotes, putting up only 2-5-7 in 50 games to go with a -14 - although worth noting that the last mark is a career worst for him. On paper, he's a fairly vanilla player but considering the depth on this team I can see why he'd want to see if he could resurrect his career here.
James Stefan signed to an ELC. You may know Stefan as the son of Patrik Stefan, who suited up for the Dallas Stars and embarrassingly missed an empty net in a regular season game against the Oilers, then subsequently coughed up the puck and Ales Hemsky scored for the Oilers off the rush. This is a fantastic pickup by Bowman and his staff. His stats from junior are actually mind boggling. Personally, I can't believe the guy has gone undrafted in three seasons - after all, he's played for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL and during his last three seasons put up point totals of 79 (including 34 goals in 68 games), 64 (including 22 goals in 64 games) and a whopping 101 (!) (including 50 goals in 67 games).
dark. Next. The Edmonton Oilers coaching strategy heading into the upcoming season. The Edmonton Oilers coaching strategy heading into the upcoming season
How do you put up 50 goals and 101 points in junior and not even have a team spend a seventh round pick on you? Seems crazy to me. However, GM Stan Bowman, just like Holland before him, prides himself on finding players in unusual places, or like Stefan guys who are overlooked by other clubs. Regardless of how or why Stefan was missed, the Oilers gain here is the loss of 31 other teams. Couldn't come at a better time, either, as the Oilers are in need of prospects at all positions. Hopefully, James has a better career than his dad did, the Nail Yakupov of the late 90s before Nail Yakupov came along.
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