Revisiting the 2019 NHL entry draft - how did the Oilers make out?
The 2019 entry draft was an interesting time for the Oilers. Peter Chiarelli had been fired the previous February and Ken Holland just hired a couple of months earlier, so this was the last draft that had Peter Chiarelli's fingerprints all over it. Of course Ken Holland would be relying heavily on the scouts this time around because he wouldn't have had time to scout anybody himself.
From the team's perspective, it would also mark the last time the Oilers finish the season outside of the playoffs in the Connor McDavid era. Also, little did we know that the covid-19 pandemic was coming down the pike and this would be the last time for the next three seasons that the NHL would play a full season. It's also worth noting that since this is the five year mark which is the average amount of time it takes for a prospect to join the NHL full time, this is the last time I will use a hit or miss rating system, rating the next four seasons I will be using trending up/trending down.
If you want to see how the previous drafts went you can see the 2015 draft here, the 2016 draft here, the 2017 draft here, and the 2018 draft here.
Round one - Philip Broberg, eighth overall
Broberg this past season wrapped up what I believe, one way or another, will be a regular NHLer next season. Broberg was drafted for the D corps out of the Swedish pro leagues. He's spent the last three seasons cycling between Bakersfield and the Oilers, putting up 2-11-13 in 81 regular season games for the Oilers, and no offence at all in his first 10 playoff games over the previous two seasons prior to this one.
However, Broberg was put on the taxi squad. Then when both Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais struggled in these playoffs Broberg was promoted as the next man up to the squad, and this was where he started to make this mark, going 2-1-3 in 10 playoff games alongside Darnell Nurse on the second pairing, even scoring a couple of key goals in the Cup finals.
Under normal circumstances, we'd call this a solid prospect who will be cheap puck moving help for the next two or three seasons but then the St. Lous Blues dropped a bomb on the Oilers by doing this. I write this on the Sunday afternoon that is two days before the deadline that Bowman has to match both offer sheets, so there's a chance that two days from now Broberg will be a St. Louis Blue.
Regardless, I'll keep an eye on this and report in on it in later blogs. For now, let's call this a win as the Oilers drafted an NHL regular with solid potential to play in the top four, maybe even the top pairing.
Hit or miss? Hit - too bad we might lose him soon.
Who did the Oilers miss out on? Only one player could arguably be called Broberg's equal in terms of who came after him, Cole Caufield (Montreal), who is currently patroling RW for the Habs on their first line. Of course, had the Oilers gone this route, we would've never known how good Zach Hyman could be occupying that spot next to Connor McDavid. Caufield is a solid player, no question, but he isn't a 50 goal scorer like Hyman is. Other than Caufield, it's mostly just nobodies and bottom six forwards. For the sake of curiosity, there were several good players drafted prior to Broberg that the Oilers didn't have a chance to grab - Jack Hughes was the #1 pick (New Jersey), followed by Kaapo Kakko (NY Rangers), and Kirby Dach (Chicago), who would go on to be traded to Montreal and now occupy the other RW spot in the Habs' top six forward corps. Interesting how Montreal managed to grab two top six RWers for themselves both from the same draft. What are the odds? Also let's not forget Moritz Seider (Detroit), the next German superstar and a guy who looked up to Leon Draisaitl.
Round two - Raphael Lavoie, 38th overall
Lavoie has already had one seven game call-up for the Oilers as of last year, where he put up no offence and a -2, par for the course for a guy on his first call-up. But after scoring 28 goals and 50 points in 66 games for the Condors last season, Lavoie's time has come and he's now in the conversation for a roster spot on the Oilers. He was also on the taxi squad for the Oilers during their Cup finals run this past season but didn't make it into a game - at least not this time around. Of course, Matthew Savoie, James Hamblin, and Noah Philp are all callup candidates as well, so Lavoie will have some competition come training camp. That being said, he might be the second best forward prospect in the Oilers system right now. What more can you ask of a draft pick five years into his pro career?
Hit or miss? Hit.
Who did the Oilers miss out on? Although I wouldn't classify Lavoie as a bad pick by any means, the Oilers could've done even better with the pick had they picked a couple of different people - Nils Hoglander (Vancouver) was taken two picks after Lavoie and not only is Hoglander an NHL regular, he scored 24 goals last season for the Canucks, and blueliner Alex Vlasic (Chicago) was taken five picks after Lavoie and he broke out playing on the other side of Seth Jones for the Hawks and putting up 2-14-16 with a -4 in the process. Of course, a big factor in this as well is that the Canucks and Hawks are both unfinished products and thus at this point there is more room for these youngsters on their roster compared to the Oilers roster, which is veteran laden and a cup favorite, thus less room for younger players. Though neither player was on the roster to close out the season for their respective clubs, I'll give honourable mentions to Nic Robertson (Toronto) and Brett Leason (Washington).
Round three - Ilya Konovalov, 85th overall (pick acquired from the NY Islanders in exchange for Brandon Davidson. The Oilers traded their third round pick along with Chris Wideman to Florida for Alex Petrovic).
Not much to say about this pick. Goalie Konovalov was drafted out of the KHL in Russia, and played 17 games for Bakersfield in the 2021-22 season, putting up dreadful numbers - a .893 sv% and 2.73 GAA. He immediately returned to the KHL where he still plays, as a great regular season goalie but a lousy goalie in the playoffs. See for yourself. Maybe he'll be like Mikko Koskinen and an NHL team will take a flyer on him a year or two from now.
Hit or miss? Miss.
Who did the Oilers miss out on? No one of much consequence. Most teams missed on this pick, the only ones who hit were the Washington Capitals on Aliaksei Protas, and he's only playing on their fourth line and that's it - and that's the only guy who hit 100 NHL games out of this round of this draft.
Round four - Matej Blumel, 100th overall
Back to their own drafting position in the top 10 of each round now, the Oilers picked dual-sided winger Blumel with this pick. He showed signs of potential when he put up 30 goals and 60 points in 58 games in the US junior leagues. He played for three seasons in the pro leagues of his native Czechia, and never put up more than 17 goals or 30 points in that period. As a result, he wasn't signed to an ELC by the Oilers and thus he became a free agent and was scooped up by the Dallas Stars. He had a six game callup two seasons ago where he scored what has been his one and only NHL goal to date, spending the rest of the time on the Stars farm team. He had an impressive season last year 31-31-62 in 72 AHL games for the Texas Stars, but on a team as good as the Stars he'll be hard pressed to make the roster, and at 24 his chances aren't closing in on him, but they're growing slimmer by the day. Could he be a late bloomer? Maybe, but right now it looks like the Oilers might not have lost much by letting him go. That being said, not a great use of a draft pick, even if it is only a fourth rounder.
Hit or miss? Miss
Who did the Oilers miss out on? No one of any consequence, most teams missed on picks in this round. The only players worth anything in this round that were drafted after Blumel were bottom pairing blueliner Henry Thrun (Anaheim), and third line winger Dmitry Voronkov (Columbus). Third line winger Mattias Macelli was drafted two picks before Blumel (Arizona/Utah) - he'll be playing with Nick Bjugstad and Shane Doan's son Josh on the Utah hockey club's third line this upcoming season.
Round five - no pick, traded to Montreal for prospect Hayden Hawkey.
Round six - Tomas Mazura, 162nd overall
We can see now that this draft was not very deep as the Oilers were really reaching with this one. Mazura was picked after he put up three points in four US junior games in the USHL, then chose to go the US college route, first with Providence College for a year and then St. Lawrence University for the last two.
During that time Mazura's boxcars from two points (eight games) to 12 points (28 games), to 20 points (34 games). However, what really tipped the scales on this pick for me is that as Mazura's games played has increased his +/- has gone down from +4 in the USHL to 0 at Providence to +2 at St. Lawrence and then sliding to -5 last season.
Mazura's one saving grace is that he is still on the Oilers reserve list, which means if next season - likely his last in US College - he breaks out the Oilers can sign him to an ELC and bring him to Bakersfield or to Fort Wayne in the ECHL (or they can also trade his signing rights if another team wants to trade for him). So this might be the one rare miss of a pick that has a chance at turning into a hit. So, while Mazura's NHL dreams aren't over it's fair to say they're on life support. Unfortunately, Puckpedia doesn't carry expiration dates on the players on the reserve list like CapFriendly used to do (man oh man I miss that site) so I have no idea when he'll be booted off the reserve list.
Hit or miss? Miss, with shades of gray.
Round seven - Maxim Denezhkin, 193rd overall
Denezhkin's story isn't all that interesting - this was clearly a throw at the dartboard that missed. Denezhkin piled up points in the Russian KHL junior leagues before putting up less points in the KHL minor leagues and barely any in the KHL.
Denezhkin since has bounced around the KHL minors and the KHL and the results show him to be nothing more than a VHL-KHL bubble player. He hasn't gotten anywhere near North America and at this point, I doubt he will.
Like Mazura, he remains on the Oilers reserve list but don't count on him getting signed anytime soon.
Hit or Miss? Miss
Who did the Oilers miss out on? The Oilers really only missed out on a single impact player in any of these rounds, Dustin Wolf (Calgary, seventh round), who will likely be suiting up for the Flames this season since Jakob Markstrom's trade to New Jersey has been completed. I don't know, the Oilers probably could've used him but I have no lamentations for the tandem of Skinner-Pickard that we have now, with Olivier Rodrigue in the pipeline. In the fifth round, only bottom six forward Mark Kastelic (Ottawa, since traded to Boston) was drafted as the closest thing to an impact player, and he was one of two players to play NHL games in that round and was drafted prior to the Oilers position (or what would've been that position had they not traded away their pick) so they wouldn't have had a chance at him regardless. Not a single player in round six is of any consequence so the Oilers aren't alone in missing on that one.
Overall verdict
It appears the Peter Chiarelli era in Edmonton ended with more of a whimper than a bang. The Oilers only hit on their first and second round picks - good picks to hit on, mind you, but not nearly as impressive overall as their results in 2015 and 2018. Encouraging to see that the Oilers hit on their first round pick for the second year in a row - too bad the Oilers might lose him to an offer sheet now.
Holland would go on to do less of a housecleaning with the scouting staff, installing a few of his own while getting rid of some of Chiarelli's, standard fare for a GM takeover. Don't be surprised if Stan Bowman brings some of his old Chicago buddies to Edmonton in the near future.
Two juicy rumors to keep things going in the offseason
1) Evander Kane will be on LTIR to start the season
Kane was unfortunately unavailable for the Cup finals against Florida after the first two games in the series, as that sports hernia he suffered had finally caught up with him and he was too injured to play. Bob Stauffer recently weighed in on the health of Evander Kane, noting the power forward is likely to start the season on LTIR. This won't be a repeat of the Mark Stone situation in Vegas where he's out all year and then magically healthy for the playoffs when his cap hit doesn't count, in this situation, the Oilers will only be accruing LTIR cap space, so don't get excited about the Oilers going out and acquiring a $5 million player for next season at least.
The Oilers can extend this time by sending Kane to Bakersfield to play for the Condors on a conditioning stint, which I would assume they will since even losing a month of playing time - and not participating in training camp, for that matter - tends to create a physical deficit for NHL players that's tough to come back from without the slower pace of the minors. It sounds like Stan Bowman and Co. will find a way to keep him around for the long term, as the Kings and Ducks have both asked him about waiving the No Movement Clause of his contract for a trade to be orchestrated, but he turned down both clubs because he wants to remain an Oiler, possibly for the rest of his career. His contract reverts to a 16 team Modified No Trade Clause in the 2025-26 season, the last of his $5.125 million contract. Kane will be 35 by that time, so whether he comes back or retires at that point remains to be seen.
If Kane is willing to sign something short term and cheap, I wouldn't mind him in the bottom six forward group after his current contract expires. That being said, Kane has a lot of hard miles on his body and has played a feature role on most of the teams he's played on so it's entirely possible he may not pass a standard physical once his current contract is up or he may be on LTIR for the remainder of his current contract. But this guy is a loyal Oiler, through and through. I wish him the best, and I hope you do.
2) If the Oilers don't match Philip Broberg's offer sheet, they might sign Tyson Barrie to reunite with us and take his roster spot
I like this rumor - I like it a lot because it makes so much sense. At this point, Barrie is still a free agent, he hasn't had any takers yet despite the fact he is an established point man on the power play and a right shot blueliner, traditionally a position that's in demand due to there being a lower supply of players for that position. He's only 33 years old, so he still has some time left in the NHL before retirement. The trade to Nashville, while it was a home run for the Oilers as Mattias Ekholm has fit here like a glove both on and off the ice, was incredibly detrimental to Barrie's career.
In Nashville, Barrie was buried behind Roman Josi on the power play and was often a healthy scratch off the roster altogether. Nashville didn't re-sign him and he didn't seem happy to play there. He could sign here for cheap and either be cheap scoring help beside Darnell Nurse on the second pairing or leave that job to Troy Stetcher and pair with Brett Kulak or someone else on the third pairing. He would then take the point position on the second PP unit, freeing Darnell Nurse (the incumbent of that position) for doing what he does best - munching even strength minutes with PK time and an element of physicality through the game while at the same time putting up another 30-40 points of offence. Barrie would provide a great 1-2 punch at the point position on the Oilers' PP, with a good chance at making it even better than it was last season.
After all, Barrie was only traded away because Evan Bouchard was ready to take his spot on the PP. Bouchard is still great at doing that on the first unit, but imagine if Barrie came back and played that position on the second unit....we might have the best offensive defencemen duo of any PP units in the NHL. Since there hasn't been a lot of demand for Barrie, we could sign him for cheap the way Broberg was supposed to be, and give him a job on a team that we 100% know he fits into - not to mention he was good in the room and Connor Mcdavid likes him. I would imagine Mcdavid would be happy to vouch for Barrie in Stan Bowman's ear.
Next. New GM Stan Bowman is playing a blinder for the Oilers. New GM Stan Bowman is playing a blinder for the Oilers. dark
After that year, who knows what would happen with Barrie? He made $4.5 million in his last contract but it's unlikely at the age of 34 - which is what he would be at that point - that he would need to be signed for that much. Since Barrie would be cheap, even if he only plays on the third pairing and leaves the younger Troy Stetcher on the second pairing - a job Stetcher is also capable of playing - this would help solidify an area of weakness on D for the Oilers right now.
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