Revisiting the 2018 NHL entry draft - how did the Oilers make out?
After a great 2015 draft, a disastrous 2016 draft, and a slightly better 2017 draft, the Oilers were looking to do better in 2018, especially with the first rounders they missed out on the past two drafts.
If the 2017 playoff run taught us anything, it was that the Oilers were still a bit of an unfinished product. At this point, they were still lacking depth and were largely lacking scoring options outside of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Likewise in the defence corps, it was a similar story - Darnell Nurse was the only consistent threat to score at this point. Even past his partner Adam Larsson, the right side was particularly lacking. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen were the tandem in net, and while they were OK, neither one could really be looked at as a long term solution - although remember Stuart Skinner had been drafted the previous year so help was on the way between the pipes. After a surprise run in the playoffs the previous year, the Oilers lack of depth was exposed and they ended up dropping back out of the playoffs after the 2017-18 season. Clearly more drafting was needed to round out the team. Most of the core for long term success was in place for the most part, but we needed scoring options outside of the big three, on defense, and a better bottom six forward group.
And then there was the problem of Milan Lucic, who was the big name free agent in 2016 and chose to wear the uniform his old buddy from Boston now was in charge of. This is a roster whose problems weren't going to be solved overnight, and it was critical they got this draft right to move things forward. Once again the Oilers found themselves with a top 10 pick. The 2017 draft results are here, while the 2016 draft results are here, and 2015's are here.
Round one - Evan Bouchard, 10th overall
In hindsight it's fair to say that this year was a good draft for defencemen - and if it weren't for the fact Quinn Hughes was taken three picks before Evan Bouchard, he would've been the best of the bunch.
After he tore up the OHL with 25 goals and 87 points in 67 games, Bouchard got a seven game audition with the Oilers where he scored his first NHL goal but was still a little rough around the edges, so the Oilers rightly sent him back to junior to dominate for one more year, thus pushing his ELC up one more year before it counted against the cap. He then wrapped up his junior career with 16 goals and 53 points in 45 games and was eligible to join Bakersfield on their AHL playoff run that year too, putting Bouchard in the unique position of having played games in the NHL, AHL, and OHL all in one season. In that playoff run, he showed early signs of dominating in the minors as well, putting up 3-5-8 in eight games for the Condors. That was followed by a covid-shortened full season in the AHL in which he put up 7-29-36 in 54 games, albeit with a -10. Once the pandemic lockdown was lifted, he went to play where he could, which turned out to be in the Swedish pro leagues, where he put up 17 points in 23 games and improved to a -3. Once the NHL resumed play, it was time for Bouchard to prove he could conquer the top level, and prove it he did, putting up 2-3-5 in 14 games with a -2. Looking improved in all facets of his game, the Oilers that offseason traded for Duncan Keith, who mentored Bouchard on the third pairing and helped him to a 43 point season in his first full season in the NHL.
The following trade deadline the Oilers made a key trade, feeling Bouchard was ready for a bigger role as the PP quarterback but still needing veteran mentorship while at the same time being buried behind Tyson Barrie, the Oilers' incumbent PP quarterback on the first unit, getting all the prime minutes and primetime with the prime forwards. That all changed when the Oilers traded away Barrie as the centerpiece to Nashville in exchange for Mattias Ekholm, elevating Bouchard to the top four D corps. It worked out beautifully as the two men had instant chemistry. Once the Nurse-Cody Ceci pairing lost their chemistry together and started underperforming, Kris Knoblauch elevated this pairing to the top pairing and demoted Nurse-Ceci to the second pairing this past season where both pairings have stayed ever since. Bouchard responded to the extra responsibility and pressure by putting up 18-64-82 with a whopping +34 and continuing on that momentum in the Oilers' run to the finals this past season by putting up 6-26-32 in 25 playoff games. If he plays like this again next season there's no doubt in my mind he'll be a strong candidate for the Vezina trophy as the NHL's best defenceman.
Hit or miss? Hit, massive hit. Man, it feels good for the Oilers to hit on their first round pick for once. First time since McDavid.
Who did the Oilers miss out on? No one is better than who they took. Noah Dobson, a comparable player to Bouchard, who plays the same side and the same role on the Islanders, was picked two picks after Bouchard. Dobson technically has 20 more points in 52 more games in his career than Bouchard at this point in time, but Bouchard is surrounded by a better team and is well known for his cannon of a shot, something I haven't heard about Dobson, so frankly I'm happy with the player the Oilers took. If Bouchard has another big season this upcoming year, I'm sure he'll surpass Dobson in career points. Other honourable mentions go to Joel Farabee (Philadelphia), K'Andre Miller (NY Rangers), Rasmus Sandin (Toronto), and Joe Veleno (Detroit).
Round two (two picks) - Ryan McLeod, 40th overall
Ryan McLeod showed his potential with point totals of 70 and 62 (in 68 and 63 games, respectively) in junior. Since he was a 20 year old overager at the time, the rules against McLeod jumping from the CHL to the AHL didn't apply, so he joined the Condors for five playoff games in 2018-19, putting up three assists in those five games - a good start albeit in short sample size. Mcleod then joined the Condors full time the next season, putting up 23 points in 56 games, showing signs that he could have a career as a solid bottom six forward or middle six forward. He joined the Swiss pro leagues in the covid shortened 2020-21 season, putting up 11 points in 15 games. He really broke out when he got back to Bakersfield that season, though, putting up 28 points in 28 games. That earned him a 10 game callup where he put up an assist in those 10 games as well as four playoff games, a ballsy thing to do to a raw rookie. After following up that season with five points in a short seven game stint in Bakersfield, his point totals then increased to 21 points (71 games), 23 points (57 game shortened post-covid season), then 30 points in 81 games last season. His point totals in the playoffs have likewise increased but stayed largely steady - 3-1-4 in 16 games in his second season, 0-5-5 in 12 games the season after, and 4-0-4 in 24 games this past playoffs - although he was largely relegated to the wing or a healthy scratch after the trade for Adam Henrique, who eventually ended up taking over at third line center.
Most recently, of course, after Jeff Jackson re-upped a more veteran presence in Henrique for the third line center position, that left Mcleod as expendable and he was subsequently traded to Buffalo with prospect Matthew Savoie coming back as the centerpiece. This trade for Buffalo fans was much maligned, as illustrated here. There is great irony that is coming from a Toronto Maple Leafs blog. I don't know how Jeff Jackson pulled that off, but I'm glad he did. At any rate, this was a solid pick.
Hit or miss? Hit - also the first hit in the second round since 2015, mirroring first round results.
Olivier Rodrigue, 62nd overall - pick acquired from Montreal in exchange for the Oilers' third and fifth round picks in this draft, a pick which originally belonged to Washington who traded it to Montreal for Lars Eller
Olivier Rodrigue's resume doesn't look that impressive on the surface, but he's knocking on the door of the call-up this season and likely a roster spot within 2-3 years. He's not as old as last year's seventh round pick Phil Kemp but is showing the same pattern of being a late bloomer.
Rodrigue's selection was originally criticized since he was the son of the organization's AHL goalie coach of the day Sylvain Rodrigue so accusations of nepotism rained down - and to be fair, the Oilers did set a precedent for that for a while, by hiring Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish to move up the ranks, while at the same time maintaining too much loyalty to what for years was an underperforming scouting staff. Paul Coffey's initial role with the team as a skills coach was roundly criticized as well, although he's since redeemed himself as an assistant coach on Kris Knoblauch's staff.
Anyway, back to Rodrigue. He did earn a draft pick on merit by finishing his junior career in the QMJHL with a .918 sv% and a 2.32 GAA so there was potential shown there. He struggled his first two seasons with the Condors, finishing both years with sv%'s below .900 and a GAA above or near 3.00, all the while playing only 11 and 13 games respectively, as well as a stint being banished to the ECHL, where he didn't fare much better, going .907 with a 3.57 GAA. But, since the minors are primarily for development, Rodrigue obviously worked on his game and has since redeemed himself, with the past two seasons producing sv%s of .912 and .916 - with a sparkling .939 in the playoffs last season for the Condors, with the GAA predictably falling as well, from 2.77 to 2.73, going down to 2.07 in the playoffs for the Condors. Rodrigue's father has since departed the organization, and Rodrigue is looking more and more like he'll cover the bet going forward, likely eventually supplanting the older Calvin Pickard by the time Pickard's contract is over. Hopefully, the Oilers can deal Pickard from a position of strength by then and perhaps replenish their draft pick selection even more.
Word on the street is the Oilers wanted to give Rodrigue a cup of coffee style call-up last season, but with the team flying on three winning streaks and trying to make up for lost time from a slow start to the season, there was simply too much risk in starting Rodrigue for a game, even against the bottom feeding teams. I would wager if the Oilers get off to a better start and can stay at the top of the division then conditions are primed for Rodrigue to get a start against a bad team probably around mid-season - assuming of course that Rodrigue can build on his breakthrough this season, as with the improved play he's shown the past couple of seasons he's earned a promotion to defacto starter in Bakersfield and organizational #3, prompting the Oilers to let Ryan Fanti, a former college free agent signing, walk out of the organization.
If Skinner or Pickard get injured, you can bet that Rodrigue will get the call in their absence to fill in if that happens too.
Hit or miss? Tough call, but I'm going to call this a hit because OR looks right on the cusp of an NHL career - and what else can you ask of a second round pick?
Who did the Oilers miss out on? As far as Rodrigue is concerned, he was the final pick in the second round so the answer to that one is no. As far as after McLeod, there was one prospect of note that we could call an upgrade on McLeod - blueliner Sean Durzi (Toronto). The Leafs would go on to trade Durzi to the LA Kings who would go on to trade him to Arizona, where he broke out this past season with 41 points and will start the season for Utah next year as the incumbent top pairing blue liner on the right side opposite Mikhail Sergachev. The only other player of note is bottom pairing blueliner Michael Fehervary (Washington). I'm actually glad they picked McLeod over Durzi despite this as Durzi would be buried under Bouchard here, so they would've had to trade him away anyway just like Toronto and LA did. McLeod came in to fill a role at a critical time for the organization when they were lacking a legitimate third line center, and they've since turned him into a player via trade who projects to be an NHL star if he lives up to his hype.
Third round - no pick, traded away to Montreal for the aforementioned Washington second rounder that turned into Rodrigue
Fourth round - no pick, traded away to Montreal for rental goalie Al Montoya who flipped the pick to San Jose for their fourth and fifth round picks in this draft
Fifth round - no pick, traded to Montreal in the aforementioned Rodrigue selection pick
Sixth round - Michael Kesselring, 164th overall
I can see why the Oilers waited until the sixth round to pick Michael Kesselring - this was strictly a roll of the dice on this kid. In his draft year, he was playing in the USHL (the equivalent of the CHL in the US, and affiliated with USA Hockey, the US's national program for developing players for their national team).
Kesselring put up a mere two points in 12 games for his USHL team, but then 12 points in 33 games the next season and 22 points in the same 33 games the season after. He then played two years for North Eastern University going the US College route, only putting up five points in 34 games with a -2, then eight points in 20 games with a -4. At this point, a lot of their farm team had been poached by the Oilers, so they were looking to replenish the cupboards and ended up signing Kesselring to an ATO and then an ELC with the Condors. Kesselring showed promise albeit as a late bloomer, putting up point totals of three in 21 games his first season (plus three assists in six playoff games), then 13 points in 55 games the next season (no points in four playoff games), then 22 points in 49 games the season after. At this point, however, Kesselring despite his rising stock was buried behind other defensive prospects such as Bouchard and Vincent Desharnais, with previous pick Phil Kemp also on the up and up.
Due to this, the Oilers included him as the prospect going to other way in the Nick Bjugstad rental deal at the 2023 trade deadline, and Kesselring now had fewer obstacles in his way on his journey to the NHL as Arizona was a vastly inferior team to the Oilers but also a team in which Kesselring himself had a head start of a few years on some of their best prospects, with more roster mobility from the bottom due to the fact Arizona was still rebuilding. It was these circumstances that saw the Coyotes give Kesselring his first call-up after the trade for nine games, a time in which he put up 0-3-3 with a -1. Nothing earth shattering about those numbers, but solid for a guy on his first call-up. This past season, however, would see Kesselring break out as after another short stint on the Coyotes AHL team, he saw himself on an extended 65 game call-up and made the most of it, going 5-16-21 with a +11 and 66 PIMs. Kesselring has thus earned himself a permanent spot with the Utah hockey club for next season, on the right side of their third pairing. His stock is on the rise and if he can outplay John Marino he might even make it into Utah's top four corps.
Hit or miss? Hit, despite the fact he never got a chance to play for the Oilers.
Who did the Oilers miss out on? No one, the Oilers drafted the one impact player in this round.
Round seven - Patriik Siikanen, 195th overall
There isn't much to say about this guy, everything you need to know is here. All seasons are subpar-failing, spending all his time in the Finnish pro and minor leagues and not a single game in North America in any league whatsoever. I don't know what the Oilers saw in this guy but he's probably the biggest failure of a draft pick we've seen so far - good thing he was only a seventh round pick.
Hit or miss? Miss - fortunately the only miss in this draft.
Who did the Oilers miss out on? No one, no impact players were drafted in this round by any team. However, one piece of Edmonton Oil Kings history is seen in this round as one of the most legendary guys to ever play for the Oil Kings, Trey Fix-Wolansky, who had 102 points in 65 games his last year with the Oil Kings, would go on to be drafted by Columbus and find a scoring touch in the AHL, which unfortunately he hasn't been able to translate at the NHL level, however he is listed as having a roster spot for Columbus here with one more season to go on a two year contract paying him $775K per season. He was taken nine spots after Siikanen.
Overall verdict
I have to hand it to Chiarelli, he did a great job in this draft. He hit on all the high end picks and the sixth rounder, while only losing on the seventh rounder which is not a big deal - especially considering every other team missed on their picks in that round as well. It may have taken three years, but it looks like Chiarelli was not just one and done in terms of the draft, he can point to several key players still playing either for the Oilers or elsewhere in the NHL, and likely one more to come in Rodrigue.
People still dumping on Stan Bowman
I can't believe I'm about to keep talking about Stan Bowman, but Oiler fans keep giving me material so I'm going to keep calling them out for it. Many people are refusing to give Bowman credit for the three Cups the Hawks won while he was in charge, with many saying his predecessor in Dale Tallon did most of the work in building the team and Bowman just rid his coattails to the top.
But doesn't that sound familiar? Ken Holland has laid the foundation and turned the Oilers into a cup contender. Bowman already has a lot of experience taking a good team and turning it into a great one. I get the criticism, but so what if Bowman didn't build the Hawks by himself? We're also getting a more experienced Bowman who has learned lessons about integrity and leadership and can learn from both his successes and mistakes from his time with the Blackhawks.
Next. Top 3 Oilers players that should be traded this offseason. Top 3 Oilers players that should be traded this offseason. dark
I don't see this as a bad thing, considering the circumstances for him ascending to the top with the Oilers are literally the exact same ones as he was when he became GM of the Hawks.
Besides, before you praise Dale Tallon you might want to remember that he was demoted from GM of the Hawks after he forgot to give QOs to his RFAs, costing the Hawks in cap space after he managed to get them all signed but only after paying inflated prices for them. So, not exactly a blameless man there, either.
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