3 reasons why Stuart Skinner is a prime candidate to win the Vezina Trophy
Stuart Skinner has some epic numbers, even if he hasn’t always been consistent. But that doesn’t mean he’s not a Vezina Trophy candidate.
Stuart Skinner became the Edmonton Oilers full-time starter at goaltender last season, and wow, he’s been a revelation when you look at his overall performance. Replacing Jack Campbell, who found himself in the AHL following an abysmal start, Skinner has seen action in 99 games through March 20th, posting 95 starts in that period and winning 59 contests.
His overall save percentage in these nearly two full seasons sits at a solid 0.911, with a 2.66 GAA, three shutouts, 59 quality starts, and a 0.621 quality starts percentage. It’s safe to say that in the near-two-year time frame that Skinner looks like a perennial prime candidate to win the Vezina, but that ironically hasn’t always been the case this season.
Skinner has had some spans when he (and the Oilers) struggled in 2023-24, and that, along with Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck’s dominance, could hurt him in the race for the Vezina. Look at Skinner’s first 13 games this season, and they were nothing short of awful, with a 4-7-1 record, an 0.865 save percentage, and a 3.66 GAA.
Stuart Skinner has bounced back to become a viable Vezina Trophy candidate
He also had a shorter period of struggles between February 6th and February 24th, which saw him record just two wins in those nearly three weeks, plus another 0.865 save percentage. But Skinner bounced back since, with his save percentage skyrocketing to 0.941 in his previous eight games between February 26th and March 16th.
Skinner played well enough to at least have his name mentioned when the league votes on who will ultimately win the award, even with the not-so-good stretches mentioned above. But perhaps he becomes a prime candidate, thanks to the three reasons you are about to check out, even if the Oilers gave him some help at multiple points this year.
Skinner was a major reason for the Oilers winning streak
Let’s relive the Oilers 16-game winning streak, which saw Skinner starting 12 of those 16 contests. His 12-0-0 record is self-explanatory, but Skinner’s 0.950 save percentage and 1.41 GAA were top-notch, and it completely disregarded what was a rough start to the season.
Between his first start on October 11th and his final start of the Oilers streak on January 27th, Skinner boasted a 23-9-1 record, a 0.910 save percentage, two shutouts, and a 2.44 GAA. Those are potential Vezina numbers, and even when you add in the three weeks following the streak, he still had a cumulative 0.901 save percentage at the time, which is above average as far as the 2023-24 season goes.
But let’s look beyond just the numbers of the Oilers winning streak and instead check how the team performed during that frame with Skinner in the net. It began on December 21st, with Calvin Pickard between the pipes before Skinner took over for 12 of the next 15, and he still faced a fair 28.4 shots on goal per game.
Epic numbers, to say the least, but it’s not the only time Skinner has gotten hot throughout the 2023-24 season. And when he’s on, he’s better than most of the league’s netminders.
Few goaltenders are better when Skinner gets hot
While it’s true Skinner looks like one of the NHL’s worst goaltenders at times, and it was something we outlined earlier in this piece, it’s also true that if he’s not one of the best, he can be the absolute best in the league during others.
When the Oilers won 16 straight contests, Skinner ranked seventh in the league with 12 appearances. Among goaltenders who played in six or more games, his 1.41 GAA was by far the best, with only Connor Hellebuyck (1.75 GAA) of the Winnipeg Jets taking second in the category.
Skinner recorded just one shutout during that time, but his 0.950 save percentage was once again pacing the league among goaltenders who played in six games. To make things more interesting, Skinner was second-best when you count Laurent Brossioit, who earned a 0.957 in four appearances.
Now, let’s talk more about Skinner’s more recent hot streak, where he’s tied for third in the NHL with eight starts between February 26th and March 16th. Skinner ranks third in the league with his 1.79 GAA among goaltenders with four or more appearances, and his 0.941 save percentage is also third.
Skinner can easily improve his overall numbers down the stretch
We have spent a lot of time going over clusters of Stuart Skinner’s numbers this season, so with just under a month left in the season, what do his overall stats look like? Unfortunately for Skinner, his struggles will show that his 2023-24 numbers 80-plus percent of the way through the year aren’t great, but they also aren’t as bad as you may believe.
He had enough good runs, epic throughout the winning streak and even recently, to save his stat line, which is what you can expect many general managers to check out. So far, the 30 wins this season will take Skinner a long way, as will his 2.57 GAA, both of which should get better if he keeps playing the way he has.
Skinner also has a 0.908 save percentage, and that should also increase, assuming he stays hot over his last eight or so starts of the season. At this point, the overall numbers will hurt, but they’re also hovering above average, and that’s outstanding news for a young goaltender who could be getting hot once again. Stuart Skinner only needs to keep playing with consistency, and he will remain a prime candidate for the Vezina.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference and QuantHockey)