The case for the Panthers
That being said, Florida are hardly wilting flowers in terms of their overall game. While the Oilers currently occupy four of the top five spots in playoff scoring, take a look at who's right behind them. A formidable trio of Matthew Tkachuk (sixth with 19 points in 17 games), Carter Verhaege (eighth, 17 in 17), and Aleksander Barkov (ninth, also 17 in 17 games).
We also recently learned that Barkov was voted the Selke trophy winner for this season as the league's top defensive forward, so expect McDavid to see a steady diet of Barkov around him like white on rice. Also, while Hyman continues to lead the league in playoff scoring goals (14) with Draisaitl right behind him (10), Verheage and Sam Reinhart have nine and eight goals respectively.
Also, speaking of the penalty kill, guess who's right behind the Oilers for second in league playoff PK? That's right, Florida, at 88.2 percent. While the Panthers' PP isn't nearly as impressive as the Oilers, finishing sixth in the league with 23.3 percent is still pretty solid. They've still got guys who can burn you, so the Oilers' PK will have to be just as good, if not better than they were against Dallas.
In terms of physical play, the Panthers do top the Oilers in both hits/60 and hits overall, with 42.48 vs. 30.48 and 769 to 563. But, being first vs. third in total hits isn't what you'd call a huge gap. Florida's hits/60 rank sixth in the league while the Oilers rank 13th. To make up this gap, expect Kris Knoblauch to play Sam Carrick more than Derek Ryan at fourth line centre, since Carrick leads the team in hits/60 with 20.49 vs. 11.53 for Ryan - at least to start, and then we'll see what happens.
In respect of blocked shots the Oilers actually have an edge over Florida, and just like with hits it's at both total blocked shots and bs/60. The Oilers are actually third in the league in playoff blocked shots with 305, while the Panthers are fourth with 267. In blocked shots/60 we see the Oilers in 10th place league wide for the playoffs with 16.51, while the Panthers are in 14th place with 15.35. Let's call the physicality a wash.
Before declaring Bobrovsky the winner of the goaltending duel just because he has more experience than Skinner, it's important to remember the Oilers have outscored Thatcher Demko and Jake Oettinger, two of the league's elite goalies, on their way to the final two. The Panthers' scoring prowess is further illustrated by the fact they've punched through the league's best duo in Swayman/Ullmark in Boston and another elite goalie in Igor Shesterkin in New York. So let's call the goalies a wash too. Bobrovsky may have more experience, but Skinner is getting hot at the right time.
So, ultimately, when you look at how the teams fare on paper they're actually quite comparable. It's easy to see why both these teams are in the finals and took home the conference champ banners for their respective sides of the continent.
Florida has the edge in experience as they were just here last year in 2023, losing to Vegas in the process. This will be the Oilers' first Cup final in the McDrai duo era.
So who's going to win? If Florida wins, it'll be because they managed to stiffle the elite-level Oilers attack defensively and Bobrovsky was able to outduel Skinner. If the Oilers win, it'll be because their elite-level scoring was able to solve Bobrovsky, and Skinner outdueled him just like he outdueled Demko and Oettinger.
To me, here's what it's going to look like - no team has been able to stop McDavid and Draisaitl over the long term. And because the Panthers don't have an elite-level presence to compare to Bouchard on the back end, I believe these three players will play a pivotal role in the series and thus slightly tip it in the Oilers' favour. This will make Skinner's job easier, which means he'll be able to outduel Bobrovsky, because his skaters will be a shade better than theirs.
My winner - Oilers beat Panthers 4-3