Oilers fans have to accept the likelihood that Philip Broberg is gone

There are some folks out there, who believe the Oilers deserve a bit of bad karma after their recent controversial decision to hire Stan Bowman. Well, their wishes were answered on Tuesday, in resounding fashion.

As all Oilers fans are painfully aware of by now, the St. Louis Blues tendered not one, but two offer sheets, to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. However, what's really put the cat among the pigeons, is how much is being offered to the duo.

As per Matthew DeFranks of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Broberg has been offered two years at an Annual Average Value (AVV) of $4,580,917. Meanwhile, Holloway has been offered the same length, with an AAV of $2,290,457.

In respect of the history of offer sheets, it's worth noting only 10 have ever been offered previously, and of those only two were matched. If the Oilers let Broberg and Holloway walk, they will receive 2025 second and third round draft picks respectively.

A major early test for Bowman

So what should we expect the Oilers to do? Well, that really is the golden question in a situation which is really going to test Bowman, and with the backdrop of plenty of people looking for any excuse to criticise him.

If we're going just on talent alone and the Oilers can only pick one, you would imagine they'd prefer to keep Broberg. He has more upside than Holloway, and finally showed what he's truly capable of during this past season's playoffs, particularly in the Stanley Cup Final versus the Florida Panthers.

At the same time, if we're looking at what both have achieved to date in their respective NHL careers, then Holloway is the 'safer' bet. He has become a reliable contributor to the Oilers and earned the trust of head coach Kris Knoblauch, as evidenced by playing in all of the team's playoff games this past season.

Which brings us to the money aspect of all of this, with Holloway solidifying his safer bet status, by virtue of costing only half of what Broberg's deal will. This financial difference becomes even more prominent, by virtue of both contract offers being for two years.

As per PuckPedia, as things stand the Oilers are $7,225,541 over the salary cap for the 2024-25 season, which accounts for both offer sheets. The Oilers have seven days to decide whether to match one or both of said offers sheets, or let them walk and accept the draft compensation.

There IS a way to keep both players

Let's be clear that there is a way for the Oilers to navigate all of this, if they do decide to match both offer sheets. First, taking into account the latest report that Evander Kane will begin this coming season on Long-Term Injured Reserve, his $5.125 million salary then accounts for a large majority of the current salary cap deficit.

This would then mean the Oilers also still having to trade either Cody Ceci or Brett Kulak, to become cap compliant. For the record, they have respective cap hits of $3.25 million and $2.75 million for the 2024-25 campaign.

However, we have this strong feeling that this is not how this is all going to play out. In our humble opinion, the likelihood is that the Oilers will not match the offer sheet for Broberg and he will be allowed to leave for St. Louis.

Don't forget it wasn't that long ago, that Broberg's agent was requesting permission to seek a trade for his client and alludes to potential lingering bad feelings from the player's camp. Further, as good as he was during the Stanley Cup Final, it's still too small of a window where he has shown his potential. (Yes, we appreciate he did display this on the biggest stage possible in the NHL.)

Ultimately, it does sure seem like Broberg is going to be leaving Edmonton. However, we'll be more than happy to be proven wrong on this, so we'll wait with anticipation to see how Bowman plays this out within the next seven days.

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