The Oilers are about to complete the most epic comeback of the century
Meanwhile, the Florida Panthers are about the suffer the worst collapse of the century. Read on to find out more.
If the Oilers come back to win this thing on Monday night, it'll only be the second time in NHL history a team came back from being down 3-0 in a Stanley Cup Final. Only the 1942 Leafs have accomplished this so far, so if the Oilers win that'll make it literally the comeback of the century (unless someone else can do it). The Oilers, as they've been doing all season, have proven the doubters wrong in these Stanley Cup Final games.
Which seems fitting considering how their season has gone, the theme of this 2023-24 campaign for the Oilers is coming back from adversity. They started out winning a mere two of their first 13 games, with an overtime loss for good measure. Then they went on a 16-game winning streak, one short of tying the NHL record held by the 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Oilers then lost their next three games but followed this with another winning streak, this time eight games. They stopped being so bipolar at that point and their regular season went more or less to plan the rest of the way. They finished the regular season at second place in the division, but let's just be honest - at this point do you care that they didn't win the division? I'm guessing the answer is no, because regular season achievements are meaningless in the grand scheme of things. What each team and every player wants is to play for the Stanley Cup.
Then the playoffs started, and everyone expected the Oilers to beat the LA Kings in the first round, which they did. In large part this was thanks to contributions from the McDrai duo as well as the Oilers' power play. However, also because of a predictable Kings defensive structure which they already knew how to beat, and a lack of any goaltending that would actually give the Kings a chance in the series. (They would go on to trade their problem child in Pierre Luc Dubois to Washington for the oft-injured Darcy Kuemper, who when healthy is a pretty solid choice between the pipes, but.....he's often not healthy.)
Next, the Oilers drew the Vancouver Canucks in round two, a series everyone expected them to lose. It may have taken them seven games but they did in fact beat the wet-behind-the-playoff-ears Canucks, a team that drew an easy opponent in round one with the Nashville Predators. Predictably since this was the first time they were making the playoffs in three seasons, once the Canucks came up against a better team in the Oilers, they were ultimately no match.
Then the Oilers drew the Dallas Stars in round three, a series that once again everyone expected them to lose. However, not only did they prove them wrong, but Stuart Skinner outduelled one of the best goalies in the league in Jake Oettinger in the process.
Last came the Florida Panthers in the Cup Final, a series which once again everyone was betting against the Oilers and predicting the Panthers would win - and let's be honest, for the first three games it looked like they were going to be right. But the media, fans, players, coaches and anyone associated in hockey operations for the Panthers is finding out right now, there are two important lessons they have learned in humility since the Oilers have come back to tie the series.
First, never count out the Oilers, who have proven they have the balls to do the impossible, even when the outside noise is all criticism. Second, never count out Connor McDavid, who saw the Oilers' backs were against the wall after game three and decided to do something about it. After the coaching and video staff were able to come up with counterpunch measures to the Panthers' stifling defensive system, McDavid has gone to work and done what a captain should - put the team on his back. In the first three games of the series the Oilers captain had no goals and a mere three assists - anemic boxcars by his standards. However, in games four-six, he has put up 3-5-8 - with all of Oil Country saying, "now that's more like it."
This mirrors the patterns of other Oilers players as well. Ever-more key puck mover Evan Bouchard had a mere one assist in the first three games, while he has four in the latter three games. Even Leon Draisaitl - rumoured to be playing injured as many players do at this time of year - has three assists in the last three games after putting up literally nothing in the first three (still low by his standards but it is progress).
In addition, Zach Hyman went scoreless in the first three games and is 2-2-4 in the latter three. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also went scoreless in his first three games, with 1-1-2 in his last three. We're seeing the depth offence we saw against Dallas show up again this series, with guys like Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, Adam Henrique, Connor Brown, Darnell Nurse, and Corey Perry all lighting the lamp in the latter three games, after producing little to no offence in the first three games of the series.
The Oilers have turned the tables on the Panthers' attack as well. Aleksander Barkov, the soon to be Selke trophy winner, had 1-3-4 in the first three game, but only has a single goal since then. Matthew Tkachuk seems to be getting some extra attention, as he's only produced 1-2-3 in the six games all series, not good enough for a $9.5 million man who gets paid to produce in these situations. Carter Verharge had a goal in the first three games, but has been limited to a single assist since. Sam Bennett was rolling in the first three games producing 1-2-3, but only has a single assist since. Evan Rodrigues was 3-1-4 in the first three games but only 1-1-2 since then, and top puck mover Gustav Forsling has a mere two assists all series.
Predictably with Florida's defensive breakdown has come a breakdown in the nets as well. Sergei Bobrovsky, who put up save percentages over .900 the first three games, was chased from game four and hasn't even managed a save percentage above .850 since. This is almost the polar opposite of his counterpart in Skinner, who has seen an increase in his fortunes since the Oilers' attack came alive in game four, managing a save percentage above .850 only once in the first three games, but has since been above .950 in two of the last three games.
The Panthers, in order to win this thing, are now charged with having to overcome the Oilers' level of talent and speed. This is not an easy thing especially when their grinding style seems to have tired out the players, who have to perpetually chase after some of the fastest skaters in the game in Oiler sweaters. Good luck with that. If they haven't figured it out by now, somehow I doubt they will.
How have the Oilers done it? Here's the checklist they had to tick off in order to beat the Panthers:
1) Use your video coaches and all the sharp minds on the coaching staff to figure out how to combat Florida's stifling defensive system
Check.
Thanks to the video and coaching staff the Oilers figured out their natural combination of speed and talent, combined with long passes through small holes in traffic, would be an effective counterpunch to Florida's defensive system. In previous rounds the Panthers had successfully silenced top NHL players like David Pastrnak, Artemi Panarin, and Chris Kreider, not to mention the best collection of puck movers the NHL had to offer in the playoffs for the Rangers. The Panthers may have succeeded against McDavid, Draisaitl, et al for the first three games of the series, but have failed at this task the last three games thanks to the fantastic counter-punch the Oilers have come up with.
2) Figure out how to score on Sergei Bobrovsky
Check.
Thanks again to the Oilers' video staff, they figured out that Bobrovsky is an effective goalie from left to right but not so much up top, so that was his vulnerable weak spot. This, combined with point number one (because a goalie's performance is very much dependent on the skaters in front of him), means that we've seen the Oilers attack go high a lot on Bob, which means more chances going in. It worked.
3) Keep the Penalty Kill mojo going
Check.
The Oilers' penalty kill was 100 percent perfect against the Kings and Stars, while allowing a mere three power play goals against the Canucks, and so far have allowed but one man-advantage goal against the Panthers. Unless that changes in game seven, the Oilers will go down in the annals of history with a whopping 94.1 percent on the penalty kill during these playoffs. No, that's not a typo, read that again.
The Oilers PK has been so good, they've produced more shorthanded goals than the Panthers, power play has - 2-1 to be exact.
4) Get the mojo of the PP back
One of the annoying parts of playing a fairly evenly matched opponent is they can beat you at your own game sometimes, and this was true of the Oilers' power play, which was humming along at over 30 percent prior to the finals. Although overall it is a mere 29.7 percent overall now (ha), the Panthers' penalty kill kept it from lighting the lamp at all in the first three games, neutralising a part of the Oilers' attack which has been in their arsenal for some time now both in the regular season and the playoffs. That all changed in game four when Nugent-Hopkins lit the lamp on the power play, with Hyman and Perry also lighting the lamp since then. While three power play goals is still a bit conservative for this group, it still beats that lone one that Rodrigues has got for the Panthers.
Check.
5) Don't panic, just go out there, play your game, and stick to the plan
Check. The Oilers have been saying all the right things in the press conferences, saying we haven't won anything yet and the job isn't done and things like that. They have the balance mentally between giving respect to Florida while at the same time executing against them in near perfection the last three games. The pressure doesn't seem to be rattling anyone, even Skinner, and I'm guessing it won't for game seven.
Fate looks to be smiling down on the Oilers right now
Head coach Kris Knoblauch doesn't have to say or do much to this group at this point. They've figured out how to overcome the strengths of the Panthers, while asserting their own game on them at the same time. Momentum may not carry over from game to game but, let's be honest - if the Oilers play like they have been the last three games, is there any doubt in your mind that they can go all the way and win this thing? Not in my mind.
But personally, I'm smart enough not to count the Panthers out until the final buzzer of game seven. I think the Oilers will win, of course -- there is literally no doubt about that in my mind -- but you'd be surprised what having your backs against the wall can do for a team. The Panthers could also reverse sweep this thing, even though they've failed to do so the last three games straight.
It's not over until it's over - and that goes for both teams.
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