Conference Final predictions for Oilers vs. Stars and Panthers vs. Rangers
With the NHL playoffs now down to four teams, we break down the two Conference Final matchups and predict who will advance to the Stanley Cup Final.
The Edmonton Oilers did it. They made it to the Western Conference Final, after a hard fought second round series versus the Vancouver Canucks.
The question is, do they Oilers now have what it takes to advance to the first Stanley Cup Final since the 2005-06 season? We review their matchup versus the Dallas Stars, as well as the Eastern Conference Final clash between the Florida Panthers and New York Rangers, and make our predictions:
Western Conference
Oilers vs. Stars
For the first time in over 20 years, the Oilers and Stars will be meeting each other in the playoffs. This series won't be as lopsided as it was in the late 90s, but Dallas will be Edmonton's toughest test yet.
The Stars have a team built similarly to the Oilers. They have players capable of scoring on all forward lines to varying degrees, as well as a commitment to team defence. Dallas has arguably had the toughest road through the playoffs in the first two rounds, dispatching tough opponents in Vegas and Colorado, so this is not a team to be taken lightly.
Additionally, the Stars have a goalie with the hot hand in Jake Oettinger. The Oilers, on the other hand, are looking at their playoff goaltending more as a tandem than anything else. When Stuart Skinner got off to a rough start in the second round, Calvin Pickard made his playoff debut and held down the fort for the next two games, Since then Skinner appears to have figured out whatever was ailing him, as he started game six and seven and allowed a mere three goals from the Canucks in those two contests.
To combat Oettinger, the Oilers will have to do three things - a) shoot b) shoot c) shoot some more. Shots on goal will be key to beating Oettinger, as no goalie -- no matter how good he is -- is capable of stopping everything by himself. And with the firepower the Oilers have up front and on the back end, there's a good chance they'll get a lot of shots on goal. Expect a lot of low scoring games in this series.
That being said, the Oilers are very much like a machine right now in ways that Dallas just can't match. In fact, when it comes to league playoff scoring the Oilers occupy the top four spots on the totem pole, with Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins occupying those places respectively. Zach Hyman occupies the top spot in goal scoring with 11 and Draisaitl is third with eight.
Even with good team defence, this is going to be a tough assignment defensively for Dallas to handle. Vancouver really keyed in on McDavid in the second round, a strategy not without merit. In the end however, it didn't really help their cause as the Oilers superstar simply did what Wayne Gretzky did in the 80s, i.e. passed the puck to his more open teammates and let them finish off the play with a goal. This is why McDavid leads the NHL in assists in this postseason.
The Oilers also have the best special teams of all the playoff teams, as they lead the NHL postseason in PP at 37.5 percent, and PK at 91.4 percent. (They went 100 percent in the first round against the Kings.) The Oilers are second among all remaining NHL teams, with 394 hits. (Boston still officially leads the postseason with 621 hits, but of course they were out in the second round.) But who leads the NHL postseason in blocked shots? Dallas, with 283.
Going over the depth scoring for Dallas, in the final game of ther series against Colorado, stars of yesteryear Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn were both playing on the third line. Both have identical 3-5-8 boxcars in 13 games. Evgeni Dadanov is 3-3-6 in 13. That's a formidable third line right there. On the fourth line, Radek Faksa has only played six games and has an assist in that time (he appears to be covering for the injury of Roope Hintz, who had 2-4-6 in 11 games played). Sam Steel has 1-3-4 in 13. Craig Smith rounds out their bottom six with two assists in 11 games. So, what Dallas has is four out of six players who are capable of putting up secondary offence on a regular basis so far.
Meanwhile for the Oilers, while Ryan McLeod is contributing on the PK, he's one of two players on the roster with no points in the playoffs so far, with Corey Perry being the other one. Since Dallas is a former team, Perry may draw back in at some point, although Sam Carrick has done pretty good in his absence so who really knows? Meanwhile, Warren Foegele has seen time in the top six in the playoffs. However, he has struggled a bit during this postseason, only managing to put up 1-1-2 in 12 games, after scoring 20 goals in the regular season. Connor Brown is only in the lineup covering for Adam Henrique, but even so he's managed one assist in six games.
The Oilers' best scorer in the bottom six has been Mattias Janmark of all people, with 1-2-3 in 12 games. There's also Derek Ryan, who has one assist in nine games. As you can see, the Oilers have been rotating bottom six forwards in and out of the lineup as injury and performance dictate, struggling to find much offence from that portion of the lineup. It will probably help when Henrique is healthy enough to draw back in and push Dylan Holloway back down to the bottom six (at least in theory anyway - he's done pretty good in the top six).
Health-wise we'll call it a wash, as Dallas has more guys out in Hintz and Jane Hakanpaa, while Edmonton have the higher profile guy out in Henrique.
This is truly a series where either team could win. If the Stars win, it will be because of depth scoring and goaltending. If the Oilers win, it'll be because they have superior firepower up front and on special teams. But I have to make a prediction, so here it is:
My winner - Oilers win 4-3
Eastern Conference
Panthers vs. Rangers
How did Florida end up winning that goaltending battle with Boston? Crazy. Sergei Bobrovsky looks like he may have redeemed himself, as his save percentage has now increased back above .900, to .902. If he's getting hot at the right time, this bodes well for Florida.
You know what else bodes well for the Panthers? The Rangers have had the easiest trip through the playoffs so far, drawing the most anemic playoff opponent in round one they possibly could with the Washington Capitals, who they predictably swept. Then they faced the perennial chokers in the Carolina Hurricanes, who they beat in six games. That easy ride is effectively over against the Panthers, a high achieving team whose goalie appears to be getting his game back and who just went to the Stanley Cup Final last year and, in my opinion, they appear poised to get back there again.
Making things even more complicated for the Rangers is that literally NONE of their puck moving blueliners - who on paper are one of if not the best in the league - are producing this postseason. Adam Fox, who had 73 points and a +21 in the regular season, has only mustered 0-4-4 and a +1 in 10 playoff games so far - and again this is against some of the weakest playoff competition the league can muster. K'Andre Miller has 1-2-3 in 10 games, after 30 points in the regular season. His partner Jacob Trouba isn't much better, going 1-3-4 in 10 games.
To put this in perspective, Bouchard has put up 20 points in 13 playoff games, while the Stars' Miro Heiskanen has 13 in 13. They've both produced more individually than all three of those Rangers COMBINED. You're not going to win when you're getting that kind of production from the blueline, and having all three of them implode at the same time hurts.
Like the Oilers, the Rangers aren't getting much offence from their bottom six forwards as they have only two players - Barclay Goodrow and Jimmy Vesey - who have more than two points in the postseason. Another strike against the Rangers? Out of all the teams left in the playoffs, the Rangers are last in the league in postseason hits with 308. The Panthers meanwhile, lead all remaining teams, with 521 hits. The Rangers may have been able to coast past two anemic teams without hitting a lot, but against the Panthers it won't work.
The good news for the Rangers is they have an edge in three key areas - blocked shots, where they're currently second only to Dallas out of the teams left with 209, plus goaltending and top six scoring. The Rangers have only one top six scorer who doesn't have double digit points in the 10 playoff games they've played, not to mention Igor Shesterkin is one of the best goalies in the league, so that's a huge advantage.
However, both of the latter two items come with caveats - first of all, your forwards SHOULD put up points when they're playing against weak competition. And second, if Florida can solve Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark in Boston, they should be able to solve Shesterkin as well.
Last but not least, it's worth noting Florida is 100 percent healthy. Meanwhile for the Rangers, Blake Wheeler and Filip Chytl are both out day-to-day, although Chytl is listed as a game day decision so he may draw back in.
My winner - Panthers win 4-2
My Stanley Cup Final prediction - Oilers vs. Panthers
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