Goaltending tandem for the playoffs

There's no question that Stuart Skinner will be the man in goal for the Oilers for the lions share of the five games left in the regular season, but who backs him up and goes in if he falters or gets injured?

Let's talk about some options here. Many of you fans will say "Calvin Pickard, duh, why would you change that? He's playing well right now, why switch it up?"

Yes, Pickard may be playing well right now, and that's great, but here's the thing - the second the regular season is over the playoffs start - and that's a whole other season and a whole different animal. The game is different in the playoffs vs. the regular season, any NHL player who's played in them can tell you that.

So what do we do here? We've essentially got three options.

Calvin Pickard - the regular season incumbent

There's no question Pickard came up after Jack Campbell went down and provided the Oilers with some much-needed relief for Stuart Skinner between the pipes, and he's done well in limited time, rejuvenating a career that essentially was on life support prior to this season. Drafted in the second round in 2010 by the Colorado Avalanche, Pickard looked like their goalie of the future, especially after he played 20 games for the Avs in the 2015-16 season, putting up an elite SV% of .922 and a solid 2.56 GAA. The next season he was given more games by the Avs, who put him in 50 games for them, however, he essentially fell off the map, his SV% nosediving to .904 and his GAA going up to 2.98. Predictably the Avs didn't offer him another contract, and he spent the next nine seasons bouncing back and forth between the NHL and AHL, with a COVID stint in the Austrian pro leagues. During this time he bounced around between Toronto, Philly, Arizona, and Detroit, playing for the AHL teams of all four organizations as well, all the while putting up mediocre stats in the NHL and no better than average in the AHL, even spending an entire season in Bakersfield in 2022-23.

It wasn't until Jack Campbell started the season struggling - more than any other Oiler, I'd argue - that Pickard was called upon to answer the bell again, with probably the best skaters in front of him he's had since his days playing for the Avs. Pickard has really answered the bell for the Oilers, playing in 20 games which includes 18 starts, and putting up the best numbers his career has seen since that fateful 2015-16 season for Colorado.

So why not keep playing him? One simple reason we should move Pickard down to the taxi squad for the playoffs - he doesn't have a single NHL playoff game on his resume. Not one. He's played in five AHL playoff games, three with the Toronto Marlies in 2017-18, then two more with the Condors last season. In a season where the Oilers are in win-now mode, it simply doesn't make sense to back up Skinner with a guy who hasn't played a single NHL playoff game that would be an X factor if we can't play Skinner. This scenario has, in fact, played itself before for the Oilers.

Remember the 2006 playoffs? The Oilers slayed 3 formidable dragons in Detroit (the President's Trophy winners from 2005-06), San Jose (who would go on to become legendary playoff chokers until they dropped off the map and were forced to start a rebuild albeit saddled with some bad contracts), and Anaheim (we played against Corey Perry, FYI) before two improbable opponents in Carolina and Edmonton faced off against each other in the Stanley Cup finals. The Oilers were fortunate enough to be riding the hottest goalie in the NHL at that point, Dwayne Roloson, all the way to the top. Unfortunately, Roloson got injured in game one of the Cup finals, and to back him up the Oilers were riding a two-headed goaltending monster with Ty Conklin and Jussi Markanen, and between the two of them had but a single playoff game of experience combined - courtesy of Markannen who had made but a single appearance in the playoffs in 2002-03 for the Oilers.

The Oilers went with Conklin for game two, but after the Oilers got slaughtered by Carolina 5-0, Conklin rode the bench and never started another playoff game for the Oilers again (he would go on to play only one more NHL playoff game in his career, for Detroit). So Markannen it was for the rest of the series while Conklin rode the pine. Markannen was better than Conklin, but not nearly as good as Rolson and the Oilers went on to lose the series in seven games.

If we go with Pickard as the backup, as well as he's playing in the regular season, there's no guarantee that performance rolls over to the playoffs, and if we dig in our heels and keep the current tandem, there's a good chance we'll be in trouble if Skinner falters or gets injured. If Dwayne Roloson had been healthy in the Cup finals in 2006, there's no doubt in my mind the Oilers would've won instead of Carolina - that's the power of a hot goaltender - but even if you speculate on this alternate history, if the Oilers had actually had a guy with playoff experience backing up Roloson they also might've won that year. With Pickard backing up Skinner in the playoffs, there's every chance history will repeat itself and the Oilers will lose in the Cup finals - or earlier - if Pickard backs up Skinner. Unlike in 2006, we do actually have another option that in my opinion is a better option than Pickard.....

Jack Campbell - waiting in the wings

Jack Campbell was absolutely struggling earlier in the season and even after his initial demotion to Bakersfield, however, his game has picked up over the last couple of months. He and prospect Olivier Rodrigue have almost split evenly the remaining games since Pickard was recalled to take Campbell's spot in the lineup, with Rodrigue getting 35 games and Campbell getting 31. Both players have done very well for themselves so far, but Campbell holds the edge in stats with an elite .920 SV% and a 2.58 GAA - which actually places him 18th in the AHL in GAA and a tie for sixth in the league in SV%. This is a man who has redeemed himself and deserves to come back up - he likely would've been already if not for the fact that the Oilers are doing fine without him also there's the matter of Pickard's performance, prompting GM Ken Holland not to mess with what by and large is a winning team.

More importantly, unlike Pickard, he actually has some playoff experience to his name. Campbell up to now has in fact played 18 NHL playoff games, two seasons for the Leafs and one for the Oilers. He was absolutely elite for the Leafs in one series and put in a dismal performance in the other, but redeemed himself as in limited time he put up a lofty .961 SV% and a stingy 1.01 GAA in last season's playoffs for the Oilers. Personally, I'd rather have that in my playoff lineup than Pickard, who we'll never know how he can handle the extra pressure and scrutiny of the playoffs, where the coach is also forced to give the players a lot less rope because the stakes are higher and there's a lot less margin for error. Now you know why Ken Holland likes his veterans so much - come playoff time they know how to play and what would be expected from them.

What about the cap space? I can see where the cap space issue would come from, but right now depending on when it's done we still have the cap space to absorb Campbell onto the roster without going over the cap. In fact, at the time of this writing the Oilers actually have accumulated just over $4.8 million of cap space per CapFriendly, and just for argument's sake, let's say they call up Campbell and predictably because no one wants to start over from scratch adding a $5 million cap hit to their roster and have to pay him that for three more seasons, he clears waivers and comes up as expected, for let's say game 81 of the season, which would be against Arizona on the 17th, a good game to let him get his NHL legs back. For those two games of the season, we would simply pro-rate his contract at a rate of $60,975.61 per game. Multiply that by two games and you get $121,951.22. That's a drop in the bucket, not even 10% of remaining cap space, so we don't have to worry about that at least for the playoffs - especially considering there is no cap in the playoffs, so once those two games are done you're home free and don't have to worry about it until after the season is done.

What the Oilers do with Jack Campbell after the playoffs are done is another question altogether, but honestly, in the short term, he's a better option to back up Skinner than Pickard is, because he's been there and knows what to expect, unlike Pickard. Pickard is a fine option for the taxi squad in the playoffs but not as a roster regular.

Campbell is my choice for backup goalie for the playoffs.

Olivier Rodrigue - honourable mention

Rodrigue, as I've mentioned, has platooned with Campbell in Bakersfield since last November, and Pickard before that. I wouldn't expect him to get anywhere near the playoff roster unless there's a huge rash of injuries in between the pipes where Skinner, Campbell, and Pickard all go down with injuries, which is unlikely. A 2018 second-round pick of the Oilers, Rodrigue looks to be the goalie of the future but doesn't seem to have a place on the Oilers in the present, which makes sense as again the Oilers are in win-now mode which is not the time to commit to an unproven prospect.

However, word on the street is Rodrigue has put himself into the conversation for at least one NHL start before the regular season is up. I'm sure if the Oilers had had more success at the beginning of the season they would've called him up for a start much earlier just to see what they have in him right now, but with the way they were struggling at the beginning of the season, there simply hasn't been that opportunity for him thus far.

At this point it looks like with five games to go and 10 points on the line, combined with the fact it looks like the Oilers are going to go for leapfrogging the Canucks for the division lead, means that if that happens in the next couple of games Rodrigue could get his callup prior to the playoffs starting, but once the playoffs start he would take his place on the taxi squad and watch it unfold before his eyes as a spectator. The Oilers are four points behind the Canucks right now with two games in hand on them and a game against them on the 13th. It will be key for the Oilers to win that one if they hope to get over the Canucks and win the division.

Rodrigue has worked his way into this conversation due to the fact that he's progressed from struggling early on in his pro career in the AHL as a backup to now as a 1A who is at least average with SV% going up and GAA going down. He currently sports two career bests with a .914 SV% and a 2.75 GAA. It wouldn't surprise me to see him as an Oiler in two seasons if he can take the next step and show he can be an elite starting goalie in the AHL next season.