First round playoff predictions
Who doesn't like a good playoff prediction blog? I don't have a crystal ball or the ability to see into the future so this is my best educated guess as to who will advance to the second round and who won't. But then again, even the professionals who get paid big $$ to make these predictions are in the same boat, so whether it's me or, say, Craig Button who makes the predictions, we're both in the same boat. Neither of us can predict the future, these are simply our best guesses. We'll see who's right.
You know you can never get enough of Connor McDavid, so why not make that my cover pic for this blog? Instead of an in-depth analysis, I'll just be giving hot takes and predictions. What do I have to say? See what it is and let's find out together.
Western Conference
Oilers vs. Kings
Save the best for first, right? :D
We're going to see the third edition of this first round matchup as we have the last two seasons running. The Oilers know exactly what to expect from the Kings and I have to believe the Kings know exactly what to expect from us.
Like every other team, the Kings will never be able to stop Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid forever up front, they're just that good. But now due to the fact that the Oilers have the best depth they've ever had, even if they do stop the McDrai duo they'll have to contend with the threat of Zach Hyman, Nuge, Evander Kane (when he gets healthy), Warren Foegele, or Adam Henrique to score (and Henrique produced offence on a lousy Anaheim team, imagine how much he'll clean up on this team) - and that's just in the top six forward group.
In the bottom six, we have a rejuvenated Connor Brown, Dylan Holloway, Ryan Mcleod, and Corey Perry - who will also get in the Kings' faces and draw many penalties - not to mention Sam Carrick has shown an ability to provide secondary offence and light the lamp once in a while, and if he doesn't then Derek Ryan will. The Kings can counter with a decent forward group but is it as good as the Oilers? Not IMO.
On D it's a similar story. Drew Doughty is the best puck mover the Kings have but still the Oilers counter with Evan Bouchard, who finished the regular season on a role with a mind-boggling 82 points - and only two goals away from the 20-goal mark, something very hard for most puck moving d-men to crack. Doughty's 52 points are of course solid but not as good. Let's call Ekholm and Gavrikov the same player and a subsequent wash.
It's in goal where the Oilers have a clear advantage. Kings starter Cam Talbot put up decent enough numbers, but at 36 it's fair to ask how much he really has left in the tank - especially since he hasn't played in the playoffs for two seasons now and even then it was only one game which he didn't do so well in.
Backing him up is David Rittich, a guy who has been a career backup most of his career except for two seasons with the Flames when he was a 1A. Regardless Rittich only has two playoff games to his name and has performed horribly in both of them. I said it when it happened and I'm going to say it again - just like the Leafs with John Tavares, the Kings will forever regret the sign and trade they pulled off with the Jets for Pierre-Luc Dubois (who by the way was playing on the fourth line at season's end). Right now PLD is an $8.5 million boat anchor on the Kings - why they thought he deserved Leon Draisaitl money I'll never know.....at any rate, because of that deal they have so little cap space left they had to let Joonas Korpisalo walk in free agency in 2023 and go bargain bin shopping for goalies last season, which they'll have to do again after this season. If the Kings have any hope of winning they better hope Talbot stays healthy. Goaltending is the crux of their team right now, and IMO they don't have the horses between the pipes to win the series.
Meanwhile, the Oilers will counter with Stuart Skinner, who many are foolishly counting out already despite the fact he rebounded nicely and was one of the NHL's best goalies down the stretch. His regular season numbers don't look like much, but in his case, the numbers don't tell the whole story.
Backing up Skinner will be Calvin Pickard, who at this point the Oilers have no choice but to roll with seeing as how Jack Campbell just got injured in Bakersfield on Friday. That guy's had the worst luck this season.....Don't get me wrong, Pickard is a guy who had a fine regular season and stepped up when Jack Campbell faltered, to his credit. The problem is, that Pickard has literally no playoff games on his resume. NONE. I'm already getting feelings of deja vu of 2006 as I already wrote here. The Oilers better hope that Skinner stays healthy throughout the playoffs, otherwise there's a good chance their playoff hopes will be dashed.
For the record, many Kings blogs are resigned to call this one for the Oilers as well.
My winner - Oilers win 4-2
Canucks-Predators
This is a battle that IMO will be one of the shortest series of the playoffs. The Canuck's top six have been rolling for so long that Elias Lindholm and Conor Garland were playing on the third line at the end of the regular season. That's nuts having that kind of depth in the forward group.
Having a superstar anchoring the D corps in Quinn Hughes doesn't hurt either. 34 year old Tyler Myers decided to finally start earning his $6 million paycheque as well by putting up 29 points and a +16, both marks a career renaissance for him. I guess it helps when the team around is overall better. Add in Quinn's partner Filip Hronek who put up 48 points and a +33 in the regular season, with Carson Soucy partnering with Myers to help take some of the defensive load off and this is a formidable front four on D.
Add in the fact that Thatcher Demko is healthy enough to play in the playoffs now and the Canucks will be a formidable opponent, at least in the short term. The Canucks are a weird franchise - their pattern throughout their existence is to catch fire for one season, then disappear for a decade or more, then catch fire for another season, disappear again, and so on. Personally, I don't think the Canucks have enough playoff experience to win the Cup this year but they should be able to at least advance past the first round.
Nashville is a solid enough team but they just won't have the horses to be able to compete with Vancouver. Four players - namely Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi, and Jusse Saros - will make things interesting for them but beyond those four I don't think the Preds can compete with the Canucks.
My winner - Canucks win 4-0
Avs-Jets
These two teams are fairly evenly matched on paper. Winnipeg has the more unheralded roster, but the numbers don't lie. The Avs have Cale Makar who put up 90 points in the regular season but the Jets have Josh Morrisey who put up 69 (giggity) points. The Jets don't have an answer for Mckinnon or Rantanen but there's less of a dropoff between top scorer Mark Schiefele and the rest of the pack, so the Jets have the more balanced roster, although the Avs are hardly slouches in their top six. The Jets knew they had trouble scoring in the regular season so at the trade deadline they made two good moves to narrow the gap by trading for Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli, both of whom stepped up for the Jets.
Where the difference will come in, however, is in net and healthwise. Avs starter Alexandar Georgiev faltered in the regular season and is thus coming into the playoffs on a low point. His backup is 24-year-old Justus Annunen, who has but a mere 18 NHL games over three seasons under his belt and none in the playoffs. He's done very well this season albeit in limited sample size, leaving head coach Jared Bednar with having to make a ballsy decision to throw Annunen to the wolves if Georgiev doesn't recapture his .914 sv% ways from last year's playoffs. a
Countering for the Jets will be one of the league's best goalies in Connor Hellebuyck, who will use this year to atone for a poor performance in last year's playoffs for the Jets - or so the team is hoping, anyway.
As far as injuries, the Jets are coming into this one almost 100% healthy, while the Avs are limping into the playoffs, missing key forwards in Gabriel Landeskog and Jonathan Drouin, blueliner Samuel Girard will be a game-time decision, while goalie Pavel Francouz is calling it a career due to injuries.
This is a tough series to call since both teams match up fairly well, but largely due to the injuries inflicting the Avs, I'm calling this one for the Jets.
My winner - Jets win 4-3
Golden Knights-Stars
This is another series that will be determined by health. Specifically, the health of the Vegas Golden Knights. The Knights ended the season barely grabbing the last wildcard spot limping into the playoffs. They are a good team when healthy but they just don't have the horses to be healthy this season, effectively ending any chance of a Cup win repeat. Mark Stone, Anthony Mantha, and Alex Pietrangelo are all listed as game-time decisions for the Knights. Even having one of those players out for any length of time is a knockout blow for them - not to mention when they come back they will need time to get back up to speed, especially Pietrangelo and Stone who have been injured more than anyone. The fact that Mark Stone is magically healthy enough to skate with the team after the regular season and the salary cap ends is sketchy but not against the rules. Also, somehow Chandler Stephenson is still listed as day-to-day but also on the roster at the same time....not sure what's happening there.
Dallas, on the other hand, is coming into this series 100% healthy, no injuries on their roster at all.
These are both two good evenly matched teams and it will be a tough one to call but I'm picking Dallas because they have all their weapons intact, while Vegas.....not so much. They'll make it interesting but Dallas will be victorious IMO.
My winner - Stars win 4-3
Eastern Conference
Hurricanes-Islanders
Carolina is a team that chokes when it counts as they've never been to a Cup final since beating the Oilers in 2006.
That being said, this is the first round and their opponent is much like the Winnipeg Jets - short on goal scoring, high on defence. Both teams are evenly matched in between the pipes, although the Islanders have a legit 1A when their starter falters, something we can't say for the 'Canes.
That being said, the 'Canes have more firepower up front than the Isles.
To be fair, neither team is super interesting and there aren't a lot of compelling storylines on either team. Compounding matters for the Isles are two key players - bottom-six forward Jean-Gabriel Pageau got injured in the last game of the season while blueliner Scott Mayfield is on IR. Regardless of which team wins the series, don't expect the winner to go far in the playoffs.
My winner - Hurricanes win 4-2
Capitals-Rangers
This is about as big a mismatch as you'll see in the playoffs. Just like Vancouver-Nashville, this one will be over quickly IMO.
Other than Ovechkin's pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's career goal-scoring record, there isn't a lot to like about the Caps. They have some good pieces but I'll put it you this way - no Capitals got 100 points this year, only three got over 50 points, and only two scored over 20 goals - though to be fair, Tom Wilson and Connor McMichael both came close with 18. They might also be the worst defensive team in hockey out of all the playoff teams since they had but a mere four - FOUR! - players above 0. Combine all of these strikes with the fact that the Caps have more guys on the shelf than the Rangers do and it's sure looking like the Rangers will make mincemeat out of the Caps.
The Rangers, meanwhile, boast one of the NHL's best scorers in Artemi Panarin, plus a potent blueline that can move the puck very well, consisting of superstar Adam Fox (73 points), then two guys who scored 30 points this year (K'Andre Miller and Erik Gustafsson), and Jacob Trouba who got 22 points playing on the bottom pairing.
The Capitals have John Carlson with 52 points then the injured Rasmus Sandin with 23.....and that's it.
As far as goaltending.....not even a contest. I'm not even going to link to the numbers that's how bad it is. The Capitals can't really counter Igor Shesterkin.
My winner - Rangers win 4-0
Bruins-Leafs
This is a tough one because both teams have a lot of injuries between the two of them - see for yourself here and here.
Let me introduce you to a cardinal rule of predictions here - ABAT - Always Bet Against Toronto.
This year is no different. The Leafs have generated a lot of buzz but as you've seen for yourself they are limping into the playoffs more than Boston is - they're missing more guys than Boston and they're missing higher profile players than Boston is - William Nylander I'm looking in your direction.
But it's not just Toronto's health. They're fundamentally flawed in the way the team is built - they give a huge portion of their cap to four forwards - Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander. That's $46.653 million to next year's cap - and remember this is out of an $87.3 million salary cap (based on next season's cap, not this past season's). That's literally half the cap going to four forwards, which leaves table scraps for building the rest of the roster, give or take a Morgan Reilly or two - hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, right?
Combine this with the fact that TO will be facing the best goalie tandem in the NHL - Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark - both of whom are capable of standing on their heads and stealing games for the Bruins - means the Leafs are facing a big threat to their big four, one which IMO they will be unable to overcome due to the lack of depth they are forced to build their team with.
Sorry, Toronto, I'm picking you for another first round exit. Better hope you face another overcooked Tampa Bay squad in the playoffs next year. Even if they do find success they'll never be able to keep the team together until they get rid of at least one of their high-priced players.
My winner - Bruins win 4-2
Panthers-Lightning
Many are picking Florida to go to the Finals this year (again...). I'm not sure I'd go that far, but I do know this - they should be able to get out of the first round for sure.
Tampa Bay has the flashier players in Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steve Stamkos, and Viktor Hedman, but the problem is once you get past those four plus Branden Hagel, the points drop off fairly significantly. It also doesn't help that Tampa has been absolutely horrid defensively. I counted 12 players who finished in the - column in +/-, and that includes veterans who really should know better in Point, Stamkos, Nicholas Paul, the injured Mikhail Sergachev, Tanner Jeanot, Matt Dumba, Calvin De Haan, and Tyler Motte.
Compare this with Florida, who only has five minus players on their entire roster, and you can see it's no wonder Tampa Bay has now been demoted from a Cup contender to a playoff contender and that's it. Their window to win is slamming shut. They did great in the prime of their team, but that's clearly over now.
In goaltending it's a similar story. The 35-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky has defied Father Time - likely because he's playing on a great team - putting up near-elite numbers for the Panthers going into the playoffs. Almost surreal that the Panthers couldn't give this guy away if they wanted to within the last few years. If he plays the way he did in last year's playoffs the Panthers are in good hands between the pipes.
Can't say the same for Tampa Bay. At one time one of the NHL's best goalies, Andrei Vasilevsky hasn't been elite for about three seasons now, and going into the playoffs was barely average. Oh, and he's making $9.5 million a season to be average with a nice NMC attached for the next four seasons after this one. Have fun with that, Tampa.
My winner - Panthers win 4-1