The Oilers appear to be hitting a crossroads of sorts with how they handle their forward depth chart. On the one hand you have the Ken Holland approach which has been to trust veterans over rookies or younger players as well as to "overripen" them in the American League. And on the other, you have the pending possibility that he may not be returning as general manager and you have a slew of both categories as either RFA's or UFA's.
It's very hard to predict what the team will elect to do this summer without knowing who is going to be GM. At the moment all we can do is speculate and evaluate what the team needs are. I do think that it's safe to say Corey Perry, Sam Gagner and Sam Carrick are unlikely to return. Perry most of all, as he has at times looked completely unable to keep up with the pace in the playoffs. And this is not at all to cut down Corey Perry, I adore this player and always have since I was young. But it's apparent his best days are behind him.
I would be open to a Sam Carrick reunion as well, he's an effective player who has footspeed, wins draws at a high rate and brings an element of physicality the Oilers could use. But again, it seems clunky to block the youth on their way up who need new contracts as RFA's with Carrick at 33 years old. If they can find a way, they should do it, but it's unlikely.
As for Sam Gagner, the golden son of Edmonton, I also believe his best days are behind him and it's unlikely he will return. Considering the fact he did not draw into the lineup this playoffs and spent a great deal of the year in the minors, the writing is on the wall. Once again it's nothing against the player, he's beloved by Oil Country and I am among those admirers. It just doesn't make sense to commit cap dollars to his situation.
Who do they prioritize this summer? Well, to me the answer is very clear. To others, maybe not.
Their number one priority HAS to be Dylan Holloway. As discussed in a previous post by my colleague Paul Taylor, Holloway is a potential offer sheet candidate. He has immense potential and teams with cap flexibility and youthful rosters will undoubtedly view him as an appealing option. In the case Paul highlights, the Montreal Canadiens offer sheet him forcing the Oilers to match. This is an interesting hypothetical considering the Habs are one of the few teams willing to exercise the option and also the pickle it would put the Oilers front office in.
Many of us fans were opining for Holloway to play more for quite some time, and prior to the playoffs he was reinserted to the lineup and shone bright confirming our suspicions he was being undervalued by management and the previous coaching regime. He is a big man, who plays with speed and handles the puck incredibly well. He adds a physical element to his game and while he lacks polish as some say, he is an effective F1 type player who can create headaches on the forecheck. I have been high on this player since he was drafted and it would be an incredible mishap to lose him to another team. I firmly believe he could be a 20+ goal scorer and 60+ point player in the NHL.
The second most important RFA among the forward group is C/RW Raphael Lavoie who is another player I am higher on than the organization. In his seven games this season with the big club he struggled, with no points and -2 as well as a minor penalty. But the tape that he put out suggested to me that he was being misused and I will explain.
This kid is a pure goal scorer and shooting threat. He doesn't wow you with his skating ability, he is not a power forward who delivers crushing hits, and he is not a defensive specialist. He is a guy who loves to find the soft spots of the ice and rip pucks on the net and he delivers impressive results. In his first stint with the Condors, he played 19 games and scored 5 goals, a good clip for a 19 year old against grown professionals. And in the three subsequent years with the team, he scored goal totals of 13, 25 and 28. A very clear progression of tangible results.
One thing that I have always felt this Oilers team has lacked prior to the Kane signing and since his injury struggles is a pure shooter. Especially on the Draisaitl unit even when he won the Hart Trophy. He himself is obviously an excellent shooter, but it would do him wonders to have someone like this on his flank as a trigger man.
Then there is the UFA group populated by veterans, some of which I think are destined to return and one I think should but has possibly priced himself out of Edmonton.
The biggest priority to resign is obviously Warren Foegle who is the man who may have priced himself out of the market. He just scored a career high in goals and points. He has not been above criticism here in Oil Country but I am high on this player. He is clearly a fit with the group, McDavid famously asked Ken Holland not to trade him. He works incredibly hard, has a motor that runs hot, and plays much like many of the Oilers forwards. A stylistic fit who brings some offensive prowess and depth scoring. Teams will come calling for his services and Edmonton won't be able to give him the highest bid, so there's a chance he will be out this summer. That should not however deter their efforts to retain him.
Whether or not he does leave, another player I believe needs to be brought back is Connor Brown and I have said as much all season even during his scoring drought. Despite his scoring woes this season, this player fits exactly what Edmonton has tried to design it's forward group to do. That is relentlessly pursuing the puck using footspeed, work ethic and determination which embodies exactly what he is as a player. He also seems to fit like a glove, and I think it's highly likely he will bounce back to a 12-15 goal pace next season. But his penalty killing alone warrants a return. He also kind of owes the organization one for having been awarded a hefty signing bonus. I say that tongue in cheek of course he doesn't owe anyone anything, but it is an upper-hand the Oilers brass can use in negotiations.
Mattias Janmark is another fan favorite who is currently playing himself into a new deal. I believe you may be able to get his production from elsewhere and for perhaps a bit cheaper, but why not bring him back? Much like Brown, he's a good fit on this team, he's an excellent penalty killer and can occasionally chip in offence. He's good defensively and plays a solid energy line role. I see no issue with bringing this player back at all and I would be surprised if they don't.
In the same fashion as we did in the previous discussion about the defending unit though, assuming these four players return and all four is unlikely, that still leaves at minimum three forward spots you need to fill for your opening night roster.
*A quick editorial note. This is the bare, bare minimum as you've probably gathered by now and we will allude to it later and more in depth. The point is that Edmonton is facing an incredibly perilous situation that may result in a facelift to make the dollars and cents work for both their NHL and AHL rosters.*
Adam Henrique has been discussed by fellow beat writers as a viable return candidate. He will likely command less AAV than his previous deal in his advanced age and will also be attracted to the contender status of the Oilers. On the other hand, some are also reporting that he may have played himself into another high-paying deal after his playoff performance this spring. I do like Henrique, and if they brought him back on an affordable contract I wouldn't be surprised nor angered. He's a fine player, very smart and has great instincts, is never out of position and makes smart reads. The issue for me becomes one of footspeed, something that this team isn't lacking necessarily, but doesn't need any more players who are fleet of foot.