Defence wins championships and the Oilers have important decisions to make
With just one day remaining to make a decision on Philip Broberg, the Edmonton Oilers are at a literal crossroads with their six man defensive unit.
(Editor's note: This article was written prior to the Cody Ceci trade to the San Jose Sharks.) I have grown rather tired of covering the Edmonton Oilers' defensive flaws/lapses, and I'm sure you have grown tired of hearing about, and watching them.
Last season prior to former head coach Jay Woodcroft being let go, to my eye it seemed that Darnell Nurse was playing far better than he had the previous season and upon Paul Coffey taking over he and the rest of the group showed immediate improvement.
Nurse was paired with Evan Bouchard to start the season in an experiment that almost immediately failed as they do not compliment each other whatsoever. However, Nurse's underlying stats did improve as the year wore on and his partners changed.
However, they still aren't great. In my evaluation it could be a lot worse and Nurse is tasked with some incredibly difficult minutes. Could he be better? Of course, but at this stage it's hard to expect a huge increase in his 5on5 goal shares and other underlying numbers.
The seemingly obvious task for Nurse is that he has all the tools, but needs to simplify his game and stop crumbling under pressure; those items should be coachable. However, the Oilers are quickly running out of time.
Nurse and Ceci is not a good pairing
Cody Ceci has been Nurse's most consistent partner for the last three seasons and the results are abysmal. Once again, I hate to bash guys but the film is the film, the stats are the stats. These two are simply not a fit for each other and yet two separate coaching staffs have remained steadfast on keeping them together. Ceci has found himself in the trade rumour mill as of late.
Ceci has found himself in the trade rumour mill as of late. "If the Oilers wanted to [trade Ceci], they could. They had options, but I don't know yet that's really what they want to do. However, now that St. Louis has done this, they might be boxed into it and forced into it." This is what Elliot Friedman said on his recent 32 Thoughts emergency episode and Bruce Garrioch of the Edmonton Journal reported that they are indeed exploring trades for both him and Brett Kulak, to provide themselves with some cap flexibility.
The issue is that it's also noted that opposing general managers know the position of weakness that Edmonton's illustrious brass are dealing from. Therefore, it could cost as much as a first round pick to get off of these contracts.
This is an absolute disaster that could have and should have been avoided.
The missteps of this organization during the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era are many and it's becoming infuriating to watch. But instead of dwelling on what should have been done, let's assess what options present themselves to the Oilers as we sit here today.
A few potential paths for the Oilers to take
I don't view Ceci as being a massive loss; Kulak on the other hand is big. The dude consistently delivers quality minutes and elevates his game in the playoffs. Say what you will about Nurse, but Mattias Ekholm, him and Kulak down your left side is a pretty formidable depth chart.
If they do decide to move off of Ceci to keep Philip Broberg, what then becomes of your depth chart on the other side? Bouchard is excellent, but then Broberg at $4.58 million AAV and then one of Troy Stetcher, Josh Brown or possibly Max Wanner if he shines at camp? This is simply not good enough, unless Wanner takes a massive jump in his development.
Another option being circulated is letting Broberg go and taking the second round pick in compensation and bringing in one of Tyson Barrie or Justin Schultz on a PTO to begin the season. This to me actually has some merit and seems like a likely course of action from what we've seen the Oilers do in the past. It's certainly not ideal, but Barrie was actually playing quite well prior to being traded to Nashville and was a great fit with the group. He had some great minutes with Kulak as his partner under Woodcroft.
The Oilers could play it out with this group to begin the season and see if they can get good enough results to keep pace at the top of the division, but this is a huge gamble. It's also just as much of a gamble to cut Ceci and/or Kulak and throw Broberg into that place hoping he'll hit hard enough to justify his significantly increased cap hit.
In my humble opinion that was admittedly different not even a week ago, but they have no choice but to bite the bullet and let Broberg walk. Take the second, sign Barrie as a replacement for now and package that second and Matthew Savoie for Adam Larsson at the deadline (or something of that nature). That's a big ask from Seattle, and many will say no to trading Savoie, but the reality is this groups only focus needs to be Stanley and the need at RHD is far greater than the need for a youthful offensive prospect to remain in the system.