As the season starts to wind down it looks like the Edmonton Oilers, barring a massive collapse, will be playing playoff hockey this season once again. This shouldn't come as a surprise as coming into the season the Oilers were one of the few teams experts were picking to win the Stanley Cup.
With individual team standings that need to be finalized, but as a fan of the team, there are still a few individual stats to cheer for. Can Hyman get to 60 goals, McDavid get to 100 assists, or even Draisaitl make it to 50 goals isn't out of the question. The one race I am going to keep a close eye on is Connor McDavid and the Art Ross race.
The Art Ross Trophy
The Art Ross Trophy goes to the NHL player who has the most points in the NHL season. Connor McDavid has won this award in 5 of the last 7 seasons, only losing to Nikita Kucherov in 2019 and teammate Leon Drasaitl in 2020. Coming into every season for the foreseeable future he should be the favorite to win.
This season though he currently isn't leading nor is he in second place. McDavid and his 119 points are 4 behind Nathan Mackinnon and his 123, and Kucherov and his 124 points. Although these two have more points they have also played more games than McDavid.
Why McDavid Should End Up Winning
Going into the games tonight here is how the top 3 players stand in the points race.
Games Played | Points | Points Per Game | |
|---|---|---|---|
Nikita Kucherov | 71 | 124 | 1.746 |
Nathan Mackinnon | 72 | 123 | 1.708 |
Connor McDavid | 68 | 119 | 1.75 |
Looking at these numbers there is no shock that this is a close race for the Art Ross. Even though McDavid has played fewer games he is still in the race against these two players. His points/game is better than the other two so if McDavid didn't miss a couple of games earlier this season McDavid would be leading. The question is can he make up the gap in the rest of the season?
Games Remaining | Projected Points In Remaining Games Using Season Average | Projected Point Total Using Season Average | |
|---|---|---|---|
Nikita Kucherov | 10 | 17 | 141 |
Nathan Mackinnon | 10 | 17 | 140 |
Connor McDavid | 12 | 21 | 140 |
Using the players' current point/game rate if they continue to produce at this rate for the remainder of the season McDavid would finish one point short of the would-be winner in Kucherov. Now is it outside the realm of possibility that McDavid averages more than 1.75 points per game throughout the remainder of the season?
In McDavid's last 30 games, he has 61 points. That is more than his season average, If he can hold this pace he will pass the two players ahead of him. Even though both Kucherov and Mackinnon are having good seasons, McDavid is the best player in the league and should be able to track down these two.
McDavid can not control what the other two players do the rest of the season and he will be more focused on team success, but I am not going to bet against McDavid to win the Art Ross. On the contrary I will likely be betting on him to win the Art Ross.