Can the Edmonton Oilers find the next Klim Kostin?

There was a lot to like about Klim Kostin's short stint with the Oilers. Some miss the way he could beat goalies clean from distance. Many miss the intangibles, such as his physical dominance and ability to hold his own against the toughest fighters in the NHL. Others miss his soundbites and likeable personality. Needless to say, Kostin added multiple elements to the bottom six down the stretch last season, as a player who fit the locker room well and bolstered an elite (albeit unsustainable) 19.6 percent shooting percentage through the regular season.

The Oilers are in need of a second line winger, a second pairing right-shot D-man, and a tandem goalie, so the players listed below are not my #1 choices for trade candidates; but you will likely still see the Oilers targeting a player that can be “next Klim Kostin” at some point this year - a player that can play well and play physically, all at a near-league-minimum cap hit.

Now, things have faltered at times this season for both the Oilers and Kostin. Kostin has struggled mightily, posting points and goals at rates of 45 percent and 35 percent of what he did last year. The Oilers have bounced back recently, scoring at 90 percent the rate they did last year, but their goals have been generated mostly by the top six forward scorers such as Zach Hyman (and D-man Evan Bouchard). Outside of the top six forwards, the rest of the forward skaters (eight skaters in total) have scored goals at 54 percent the rate of last year (0.132 GPG last year to 0.071 GPG this year).

The bottom six once again needs to score more goals. They are missing the departed Kostin, and even Kailer Yamamoto. Similarly, the promotion of Ryan McLeod helps Leon Draisaitl, but hurts the bottom six.

Perennially, there are calls for veteran additions to the roster. Many fans and analysts will inevitably recommend they add some functional toughness and size at the deadline as well (especially in the absence of Kostin and Nick Bjugstad).  In recent years, I called for them to trade for/sign Dakota Joshua, who at the time had nice analytics but for some reason could not earn a shot on the Blues' NHL roster. He is now an effective pest for the Canucks, with excellent analytics to boot. That’s the type of player we are looking for.

Can the Oilers find the next cost-effective role player, the “next Klim Kostin”?

Shopping Again in Nashville

One player stands out above the rest in my eyes as an effective depth player with the right intangibles, who also happens to be a veteran on an expiring contract that might readily be available in trade. That player is Michael McCarron from the Nashville Predators.

At 6-foot-6, 232 pounds, McCarron is a dominant physical presence who recently proved himself by holding his own in a fight against Tom Wilson. Still, I wouldn’t recommend him if his analytics were not strong. What can he provide to a contender?

Consider the bottom six forward scorers I mentioned earlier. What are they missing compared to an ideal, balanced, cap-constricted bottom six? As per JFreshHockey’s analytics model, let’s look at the deficiencies of the Oilers’ bottom six (comprised of eight skater options):

1. Only 2/8 players are above-average two-way playdrivers. Two players are above 50th percentile in both even-strength offense and defense rates at 5v5 (McLeod and Derek Ryan). This becomes 1/8 if Evander Kane replaces McLeod in the bottom six. This is unideal.
2. In particular, the offensive playdriving is lacking. 5/8 players are 50th percentile or higher at defensive impacts (4/7 if Kane moves down in place of McLeod). This isn’t bad; but only 2/8 are above 50th percentile at offensive playdriving (1/8 if Kane instead of McLeod). This is abysmal. It’s no wonder they aren’t scoring.
3. No high-end finishing talent. Kane is a volume shooter and can help, but requires strong playdriving from his linemates, which is not there without McLeod, Connor McDavid, or Draisaitl. Even though 3/8 players are at ~60th percentile finishing talent, this is unideal.
4. 0/8 or 1/8 players possess physical dominance and can take on the role of enforcer (depending if Kane is in the bottom six). This is unideal.

Which of these does McCarron address?

1. He can effectively take on the enforcer role left behind by Kostin.
2. He is a strong two-way playdriver, above 50th percentile in both offence and defence impacts, posting ~54 xGF% this year.
3. He has remained just above 50th percentile in offensive impacts over the last two seasons.

McCarron doesn’t solve the finishing issue, but I see this as less of a dealbreaker, because the Oilers have some options to play around with. Kane is currently in the bottom six, Dylan Holloway is due to improve, Sam Gagner has been producing and is due to return to the lineup, and Raphael Lavoie is waiting in the wings.

McCarron is an expiring contract, and at 28 years old, the Predators may be ready to trade him for some future assets. His cap hit of $775k is ideal for a contender to add at the trade deadline.

What other options are out there in the search for an effective player of this sort?

Searching for the next Kostin

Most teams have players bubbling under the surface that haven’t quite made the roster, or moved up in it, for reasons such as skill/skating deficiencies, logjams at their positions, or performance or confidence issues where the player fails to win the trust of the coach. And that’s exactly how the Oilers found Kostin last season.

Mark Kastelic has played over 100 NHL games on weak Senators teams in recent years, and his impacts over the last full season are similar to McCarron’s, with 50th percentile offence and 78th percentile defense. If he can focus on staying out of the box, he could be a fantastic role player on a contender. At 6-foot-4, 226 lbs, he was outmatched fighting Tanner Jeannot, but held it together against Arber Xhekaj. A surprisingly effective player when not taking bad penalties.

Also with the Sens, Yegor Sokolov has only played 13 NHL games, and is not at all a fighter, but should be able to mix physicality and skill in a depth NHL role. The prospect of a 6-foot-3, 223 lbs player with some speed and skill is always tantalizing.

On the other hand, Jeff Jackson and Ken Holland could look to acquire a player who is getting established on a team that is not near contending status. With that team therefore in limbo, they might prefer to trade a player they see as having limited potential, for more futures with higher potential.

On the Blues, Alexsi Toropchenko has had an inconsistent start to his career. He managed 20 points in 70 games last season, with some nice analytics, but some awful micro stats that are a concern. If they see him as a limited player due to these reasons, it could be worth paying for the player he is now – above average at defence, decent depth finishing, and physically dominant tools to develop under coach Kris Knoblauch. 

Lastly, it’s a pipe dream, but if the Red Wings would like to take their chance at rolling the dice on more futures, former Holland pick in Michael Rasmussen has already arrived as an NHL player and would solidify the third line for years to come. He’s been around 50th percentile at offensive and defensive play-driving recently in his depth role and is a high-end penalty kill option. There’s always a chance that new general managers on rebuilding teams aren’t attached to the previous general manager's picks, and that they’d rather swing for the fences (i.e. top-line talents) with some picks.

The Oilers’ own Lavoie and Philip Broberg are two homegrown players bubbling under the NHL surface right now, and even though I am a fan of the players, the organization may feel the need to move on and swap them for similar players as they did in the Dmitri Samorukov-Kostin trade. They may see Lavoie as a power play specialist on a loaded PP team, and Broberg as stuck behind Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak. You may even see them make another player swap to find the “next Kostin” (or you could see the futures traded for a second line winger, a second pairing right-shot defenceman, or tandem goalie).

Consider, what pieces and/or futures would you package up to acquire any of these players?