4 Edmonton Oilers bold predictions for January
With the Oilers needing to get the year off to a strong start, we share four daring predictions for how January will play out in Edmonton.
The Oilers entered December in a precarious position, with a record of 9-12-1. As much as the team had begun winning more under Kris Knoblauch, they were not exactly back in the playoff hunt,
So wouldn't you know it, the Oilers used December to double their victory total for the season. They went 9-3-0, which included ending the month with a five-game winning streak.
As a result the Oilers are now 18-15-1 and sitting just three points out of a playoff spot at the time of posting. January will be a pivotal month for the team, and here are four bold predictions which can also make it a special month if even two of them come to fruition:
1) The Oilers will be top of the scoring charts
As Oilers fans know, their team led the NHL in scoring last season. This was no mean feat, considering it came in a season when the Bruins set NHL record for the most ever wins and points in a single campaign.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins all surpassed 100 points during the 2022-23 season, the first time since 1995-96 a team had three players all reach this mark. They also set an NHL record with the best power play percentage since the statistic started being recorded in 1977-78.
With all this in mind, more of the same was expected this season. Instead, the Oilers struggled out of the gates with a 2-9-1 record, the worst start in franchise history through 12 games.
With 31 goals scored during the 2-9-1 start to the 2023-24 campaign, this represented an average of 2.58 per contest. By contrast, the Oilers averaged 3.96 goals per game last season.
Since then however, as results have improved for the team, unsurprisingly so has scoring. During a run of 16 wins in 22 games, the Oilers have totalled 92 goals for an average of 4.18 per contest.
Overall, the Oilers have scored 123 goals at an average rate of 3.62 per game, which ranks fourth-highest among all NHL teams. The Canucks lead the way with both 136 goals overall and an average of 3.78 per game.
In fairness, you can make the argument this will turn out to be the least bold of the four predictions we have made for January. Not that this makes it a walk in the park, but regardless, the Oilers are primed to once again lead the NHL in scoring come the end of this month.
2) The Jack Campbell situation will be resolved
Okay, so we've been here already. Just last month, one of our four bold predictions was that Jack Campbell would be traded.
With hindsight it was clearly too early to make such a prediction. Our only defence -- and it is admittedly a tenuous one -- was the speculation Campbell was set to be recalled by the Oilers and given one final chance to prove himself in Edmonton.
Since then, the situation has only gotten even more dire for the 2010 11th overall draft pick, to the point that he lost his position as the number one netminder for the Condors. He allowed four goals on just 21 shots versus the Firebirds in a 5-2 loss, was pulled just past the halfway point of the contest, and Olivier Rodrigue took over as the main man.
So what makes us believe the situation will finally be resolved during January? Well, for a start, losing the main goalie spot seems to have finally light a fire underneath Campbell.
Facing the Barracuda in San Jose on Saturday night, the 2022 All-Star put in an excellent effort, notably just one night after Rodrigue struggled against the same opponent at home. When it was all said and done, he'd stopped 31 of the 33 shots he faced and led the Condors to a 4-2 win.
Assuming Campbell can build on this performance, the other main reason we believe his situation will finally be resolved comes down to the Oilers' approach to trading him. More specifically, what else would be included in any potential deal.
It is appreciated and understood that the 31-year-old's five-year, $25 million contract is an issue. However, speculation has it, that the Oilers are prepared to include Philip Broberg in any trade package, essentially to entice other teams.
Broberg has admittedly been a disappointment so far in Edmonton, to the point he's been labelled a draft bust in some quarters. However, this is still the same young prospect capable of becoming a top pairing blue-liner in the long term, at least in the right environment.
We appreciate the trade deadline isn't until March 8. However, the Campbell situation is one the Oilers want -- and need -- to get resolved soon, to also give them more cap space to utilize prior to said deadline.
3) Connor McDavid will be top-2 in scoring
At the beginning of last month, we predicted Connor McDavid would finish December in the top three for overall points scored. At the time he was tied-ninth in the scoring charts, with 29 points.
We ended up being a little off with our prediction, albeit not by too much. As of Tuesday morning, McDavid is tied-fifth with 48 points, just two behind third place.
The six-time All-Star is undoubtedly over his poor -- at least by his superhuman standards -- start to this season. Some will note he actually had 20 points in November compared to 19 in December, but this was achieved in two more games.
Regardless, it all points towards McDavid now being back close to the form which eventually won him four individual awards last season. As such, we feel confident in making the prediction he will be in the top-two for scoring by the end of January.
Of course we appreciate there will be those who argue this isn't a particularly bold prediction, given everything noted above. However, it's not as if this will be straightforward for the 2015 first overall draft pick.
For some context, while McDavid is only two points behind third place, he's 10 behind Nathan MacKinnon in second place. Interestingly, this is in part due to MacKinnon leading the NHL in assists, four ahead of his counterpart in Edmonton as things stand.
In addition, consider that the Avalanche have 12 games during the month of January, compared to 11 for the Oilers. At the same time we still have confidence in McDavid's ability to catch MacKinnon in the scoring charts.
In this respect, we are talking about a player who just last season scored the fourth-most points by an individual player in NHL history. And with McDavid now rounding into last season's form, do you really want to bet against his ability to overtake MacKinnon by month's end?
4) Oilers will be in a Pacific Division playoff spot
This prediction is probably the most outlandish of the four we're making, and with good reason. Heck, the Oilers first need to get into a playoff spot full stop.
An awful lot needs to go right, for the Oilers to be in one of the three guaranteed Pacific Division playoff spots come the end of January. At the time of posting, the Canucks and Golden Knights are in the top two positions, tied for the most points in the Western Conference with 49.
As things stand the Oilers have 37 points and are three points out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Division. In terms of catching the Canucks and Golden Knights specifically, we'll accept this just isn't likely during January.
Instead, we'll focus on the Oilers attempting to chase down the Kings, who currently hold the third Pacific Division position with 45 points. Even with only four points fewer than the two teams above them, this is the team the Oilers can catch this month.
Not that it will be easy, hence why these are called bold predictions. Consider that the Oilers will play 11 games this month, compared to 15 by the Kings.
Of the games to be played in January, seven of the Oilers' 11 games will come at home, compared to just six of 15 for the Kings. For the Kings, they will face their longest road trip of the season during this month.
We appreciate the justified argument of the Kings being much better on the road compared to at home so far this. In fact, to the point they have the best win percentage on their travels thus far in 2023-24, among all NHL teams.
However, the Kings' six-game stretch will include games against the Capitals, Lightning, Panthers, Red Wings, Hurricanes and Stars. Only the Capitals and Red Wings are currently out of a playoff spot, and even then by only one and three points respectively.
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Further, all six teams have been excellent at home so far this season, with the Capitals having the 'poorest' win rate record of 9-4-4. Overall, the long road trip will prove taxing for the Kings, while the Oilers will take care of business at their end and catch up their divisional rivals by month's end.