Back in December, the Edmonton Oilers made a big splash, acquiring goaltender Tristan Jarry from the Pittsburgh Penguins. There had been rumours leading up to the acquisition and in a lot of ways, the two sides were a perfect fit.
General manager Stan Bowman finally broke up their maligned goaltending tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard after enormous struggles all season. He also received a goaltender in return who despite a bad reputation, has been a proven and quality starting netminder in the NHL for much of the past decade.
However, given Jarry's injury only three games into his Oilers tenure and with him having a few shaky performances, Penguins fans took the opportunity to gloat. They declared their team victorious, acting as if they had already won the trade but I would urge caution to those fans who believe that.
Jarry and Skinner swap still undecided
To declare either team as a victory is very premature, especially with such a small sample size of either goalies. As well, given the Penguins could always trade Skinner and defenceman Brett Kulak who they got in the trade by the March 6th deadline, it is possible that the real aftermath of the deal will not be known for a long time.
However, between December 12th and January 25th, Skinner was undeniably playing much better than Jarry. Through 11 games, Skinner had a 7-4-1 record with a .906 save percentage and a goals saved above expected of 11.54 (evolving-hockey.com). Jarry, played eight games with a 5-2-1 record and a .879 save percentage with a 0.64 GSAx.
Since then, both goaltenders have been playing poorly but Skinner, even more so. In three games for both goalies, Skinner has a 2-0-1 record while Jarry a 1-2-0 record. It is the underlying numbers however that makes the difference with Jarry sporting a .846 save percentage and a 0.57 goals saved above average and -0.93 GSAx. Meanwhile Skinner has a .832 with a -0.57 GSAA and -2.06 GSAx.
Jarry being harmed by Oilers defence and PK
In fact, looking at the numbers since Jarry returned from injury and there are indications he is playing better than Skinner. Factoring for the Oilers' poor defence as much as possible by looking at their even strength numbers, Jarry has a 2.71 GSAx and 0.71 GSAA in eight games. Skinner on the other hand has only a 0.95 GSAx and -0.71 GSAA through six games since January 13th.
The sway that only a few games can have on statistics for goaltenders at this stage makes it almost impossible for there to be any definitive argument for or against one goalie, yet. It could take years for the winner of this trade to be fully realized.
It is very possible that the Oilers made a bad bet and got the worse of the two goalies in their trade with the Penguins. For now though, I am willing to wait it out and see and not get swayed by a good or bad week either way. If the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, it will all be worth it in the end.