Othan than Auston Matthews being the right choice as the first overall selection, the 2016 National Hockey League Entry Draft would look entirely different if it were re-run with the information teams have today. Matthew Tkachuk might have been an Edmonton Oiler, and Alex Debrincat surely would have gone a few dozens picks earlier as well. Hindsight is usually 20/20 they say, but it's also completely useless.
A selection that certainly looked to be the right one in the year or two after that draft was the Winnipeg Jets' selection of Patrik Laine second overall. Over the course of his rookie contract, he scored 36, 44, and 30 goals, showing himself to be the elite finisher the Jets were hoping for when they called his name from the podium. But from Year Four onward, health issues became the headline when stories were written about the Finn with the booming shot.
Incomplete seasons
Laine's third season, 2018-19, was the last time he played a full 82 game slate. His fourth remains the next highest total in terms of games played, at 68. Every year since, Laine has missed 30% or more of the regular season. Most recently, he managed only five games with the Montreal Canadiens and provided little offense in those appearances. That's tough performance levels to accept when a player has an $8.7 million cap hit. Certainly there are ways to utilize long term injured reserve (LTIR) but that isn't the reason teams have sought after Laine's services.
Now he remains an unsigned free agent who, at only 28 years of age and with a history of scoring goals at the pro level, would otherwise be looking at the biggest money contract of his career. With player salaries going a bit haywire, Laine almost certainly would have had multiple offers in the double digit millions were it not for the health questions.
The injury history, as well as Laine's "veteran status" (having played more than 400 NHL games) gives prospective teams the option of a bonus-laden contract. This arrangement seems ideal for someone like Laine. Reports indicate that his long recovery from abdominal surgery has been successful and, if we take the too-small, 5 game Canadiens season out of the mix, Laine has consistently produced in the games he has managed to play in. Much like Vladimir Tarasenko, Laine wouldn't need to log first line minutes in Edmonton. He could enhance a second powerplay unit, and play managed, middle six minutes over the course of the season, even resting at times to ensure his body is ready for a playoff run.
If the bet pays off, the Oilers will have to deal with Bonus overages in 2027-28, but that would mean this season was a success, and the salary cap hit won't seem like such a big penalty if there are some new banners hanging in Rogers Place.
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